Monday, October 31, 2016

Warmest October on record... is November any better?

Despite some disagreement between the warm weather lovers and those who are OVER IT on whether this month's weather has been "pleasant," there's no mistaken that temperatures have been well above average. In fact, we're now guaranteed to see October 2016 at the top of the record books for warmest on record before today's final numbers are factored in (see below).
Top 10 warmest Octobers on record, through October 30th, per NOAA records.
We're adding to the record by tying the daily record high of 87° at 2pm, making today the warmest Halloween in recorded history. With temperatures remaining in the 70s this evening, there won't be a need for jackets for your trick-or-treating or other Halloween festivities. In fact, those who sit around the fire pits in the driveway might think twice. In fact, don't even both cleaning it out tonight...

We have a couple more days of the potentially record-setting warmth before a cold front arrives and brings temperatures back down to simply "above average" instead of "record setting." Tuesday and Wednesday will feature highs near 88° and 85°, respectively - both of which would eclipse previous daily records. In fact, the all-time record high for the month of November is 86° set on November 1, 2000. A high of 87° would be the warmest November temperature on record.

Looking a bit further ahead, the mid to upper 80s are definitely gone as of Thursday as the pattern shifts and a cold front pushes through. By this weekend, we'll be enjoying highs in the lower half of the 70s and lows in the 40s outside the city core. Understand, that is STILL above average as "normal" highs for this weekend are getting close to the mid 60s. I'll take an above average 70° in early November over 88° a few days earlier anytime though!

 As for precipitation, no drought-busting rain amounts are anywhere in the forecast. A few light showers are possible Thursday, but likely not enough to wash the chalk off my driveway that has been there literally a couple weeks ago now... (yes, my daughter was wishing it were a couple months later!)

I believe that this week is the LAST string of 80s we'll see this fall as record temperatures downshift into the lower 80s. That means that we'd have to see unprecedented conditions for November to get back into the 80s for any length of time. In fact, the long-range forecast temperatures are encouraging if you disregard whether they are "normal" or not. See the Global Ensemble Forecast System  two-week forecast below for an idea of the *trend* (not necessarily exact numbers), which is backed up by the European model as well (not shown). There's not another 80° reading in the two-week forecast after Wednesday.

So while the exact temperatures will likely feel much more like fall, consider that all of those numbers shown are ABOVE average, even the 65° readings in mid-November. That gives credence to the just-released temperature outlook for the month of Novembe from NOAA, which indicates a very good chance of above average temperatures continuing. In fact, NOAA predicts the same for basically the entire United States in the month of November.

Some of the climate models and long-range forecasters I peruse are pointing to perhaps a fairly significant upper-level pattern shift towards the latter parts of November into December, which could bring a cold spell to much of the eastern U.S. We'll see about that once it gets closer. In the meantime, the best 2016-2017 Winter Outlook I could come up with is this one:
And with that, I leave you with a little seasonal weatherman humor. Be safe tonight - even if you don't have little ghouls or goblins (there will be plenty paying more attention to candy than cars as they cross the street), and hang on for much more seasonal weather as we head towards the weekend!

Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

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