Friday, January 9, 2015

December 2014 Climate Data and Forecast Accuracy

December Recap

Dry conditions continued from November into December, although temperatures swung from well below normal in November to above average this month. Despite a cloudy month (80% average cloud cover), precipitation was more than 3" below the average of 5.74". The clouds didn't hinder temperatures from ending more than 2.5 degrees above normal. In fact, wintertime cloud cover directly contributes to warmer overnight lows. In December, low temperatures averaged 4.5 degrees above normal. Daytime highs were less than a degree above average. As in November, there was no severe weather during December. the last severe weather warnings issued by NWS-Memphis for 2014 came on October 13.

Memphis International Airport, Memphis, TN

Average temperature: 46.2 degrees (2.6 degrees above average)
Average high temperature: 52.8 degrees (0.7 degrees above average)
Average low temperature: 39.6 degrees (4.5 degrees above average)
Warmest temperature: 67 degrees (5th, 6th)
Coolest temperature: 27 degrees (31st)
Records set or tied: None
Comments: The average temperature departure from normal (2.6 degrees) was the warmest  monthly departure from normal of 2014.

Monthly total: 2.60" (3.14" below average)
Days with measurable precipitation: 11
Wettest 24-hour period: 1.16" (5th-6th)
Total Snowfall: 0.0" (0.2" below average)
Records set or tied: None
Comments: Only one day had precipitation above 0.35", which was the 5th (1.10"). December 2014 was the 23rd driest December in 142 years of record keeping.  There were no thunderstorms or freezing/frozen precipitation recorded at the airport.

Peak wind: West/33 mph (15th)
Average wind: 7.3 mph
Average relative humidity: 73%
Average sky cover: 80%

Click here for a daily statistical recap for Memphis International Airport.

Cirrus Weather Solutions /, Bartlett, TN

Average temperature: 44.8 degrees
Average high temperature: 52.5 degrees
Average low temperature: 38.3 degrees
Warmest temperature: 66.5 degrees (5th)
Coolest temperature: 26.6 degrees (31st)
Comments: None

Monthly total: 2.24" (automated rain gauge), 2.26" (manual CoCoRaHS rain gauge)
Days with measurable precipitation: 13
Wettest date: 0.91" (5th) (via automated gauge)
Total Snowfall: 0.0"
Comments: None

Peak wind: Northwest/20 mph (6th)
Average relative humidity: 84%

Click here for a daily statistical recap for Bartlett, TN.

MWN Forecast Accuracy

MWN average temperature error: 2.39 degrees
MWN forecast temperatures within 2 degrees of actual: 59%
MWN average dewpoint error: 2.55 degrees
MWN forecast dewpoints within 2 degrees of actual: 54%

MWN's forecasts extend out five periods (2.5 days, or roughly 60 hours). Historical accuracy statistics can be found here.

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