Return of warmth brings a risk of severe storms, and a few words to close out 2022

Another year with overall above average temperatures and precipitation is wrapping up, though this month will end up slightly cooler than average, but marked by large temperature swings. It's also been wet this month with nearly 6 inches of rain. The major cold spell that marked the days leading up to and through the Christmas weekend has reversed course, with well above average temperatures the past couple of days, which will lead us right into 2023. Of course, 60s at this time of year means we need to keep an eye on the potential for storms as the pattern changes once again!

Ringing in 2023 with warm air

As for the New Year's weekend, you really can't ask for much better, particularly for outdoor celebrations, as temperatures will be in the 60s today and Sunday during the day and in the 50s overnight. In addition, rain chances are basically nil, so grab the light jacket if you are headed out tonight and enjoy your time responsibly! Despite a lack of rain, lots of clouds will mark the sky condition with maybe some afternoon peeks of sunshine later this afternoon and again Sunday afternoon. 

As we head into the first Monday of 2023, the next major trough of low pressure starts to approach the area and precipitation chances ramp up as gusty south wind brings in even more humid air, forcing temperatures towards the 70 degree mark. Best chances of rain Monday are in the afternoon and scattered thunderstorms will be possible as a warm front moves through the area. A couple of these could be strong with a few strong wind gusts and small hail, but the warm front itself will escort in an airmass with a bit more instability that sets the stage for overnight storms.

An early look at forecast radar for Monday afternoon from the high-res NAM model shows the potential for a batch of storms to move through with a warm front. This is NOT the most likely time for severe weather, which would be during the wee morning hours on Tuesday. (WeatherBell)

Severe weather potential Monday night

Monday night is the most likely time for severe weather, as storm chances increase late in the night. However, the trend today versus yesterday is for a slightly lower chance of severe storms in our area. To our southwest though, severe storms containing high wind and a few tornadoes appear likely from east TX into LA and the southern half of AR. Nonetheless, heavy rain and thunderstorms are likely overnight locally, and probably late at night (after midnight) as the system moves east. Due to more uncertain severe weather parameters, including instability levels and stronger upper level dynamics, the chance for severe weather in the Memphis area currently sits in the level 1-2 range (Marginal to Slight Risk). The storms could produce a few strong to severe wind gusts, as well as copious lightning and periods of heavy rain that could result in minor flooding with saturated soil and a couple of inches of rain expected. Stay abreast of this situation for later updates as details are still to be refined and our risk could increase.

The greatest severe weather risk is to our southwest, although severe storms are possible in the metro as they move out of AR into north MS and west TN late Monday night. (NWS/SPC)

Rest of the week trends "normal"

A few lingering showers could last into Tuesday morning, but we should see a general drying trend Tuesday afternoon, even as the cold front associated with the overnight system finally moves through. Because most of the day will be in the warm sector, any breaks in the clouds could easily push the temperatures up to 70 degrees, which might spark a few showers along the front late in the day.

Beyond that, dry conditions and another cooldown is expected from mid-week to next weekend. Highs recede to the 40s to end the week as lows drop to near freezing, which is much more typical for this time of year. 

Looking ahead to 2023!

I'd like to close with a word of sincere appreciation for following MemphisWeather.net this past year and continuing to tell friends and family in the area about us! We're grateful that you include MWN as one of your trusted local weather sources and we look forward to a great year in 2023! 

Our plans for 2023 include a significant shift in our delivery of information online, particularly via mobile app, as well as more timely updates in a live format. Of course, we'll be continuing our tradition and calling to serve as a training ground for the next generation of talented young weather professionals, as they hone their skills in a practical, real-world environment. Our interns are the best and we're grateful for their service to us, and all of you! Special thanks to MWN veteran Caroline Sleeper who wraps up her second stint as a meteorology intern today and then finishes up her Master's Degree this spring! She is looking forward to "landing" a career in aviation meteorology, while gaining hours as a private pilot.

Blessings and good health in the New Year!

Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

----
Follow MWN on Facebook and Twitter for routine updates and the latest info!
Complete MWN Forecast: MemphisWeather.net on the mobile web or via the MWN mobile app
Download our iPhone or Android apps, featuring StormWatch+ severe weather alerts!

MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador

Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder

Severe storms rumble through the Mid-South early Monday

A squall line of strong to severe storms moved quickly through the Mid-South, including the Memphis metropolitan area, as rush hour began Monday morning. A Tornado Watch was issued shortly after 3am for most of the metro as two lines moved through western and central AR.

Just before 6am, the first Tornado Warning was issued for southern Mississippi County, AR, just west of Tipton County. This was the first sign (locally) that the squall line was capable of producing brief, "spin-up" tornadoes that sometimes occur in severe squalls, verifying forecasts from the previous day that the scenario was plausible.

5:55am A Tornado Warning has been issued until 6:45am for southern Mississippi Co, AR - just west of Tipton Co - for the potential for a brief spin-up tornado. We'll be watching it carefully as it heads towards Tipton. #ARwx pic.twitter.com/U5QgcLvvtD

— MemphisWeather.net (@memphisweather1) October 21, 2019

About the same time, a Severe Thunderstorm Warning was issued for the western half of the metro, including western Shelby County. Over the next two hours, the line crossed the entire metro, then weakened considerably when it reached central Fayette County.

In those intervening hours, no less than four Tornado Warnings were issued in the metro - one in northern Tipton County, one in northern Shelby County, one in southeast Memphis, and one in central Fayette County. Radar showed low-level wind rotation in each, but the southern Shelby storm is the one most likely to have produced a tornado.

6:41am TORNADO WARNING for southeast Shelby Co until 7am. Rotation appearing near I-240 and Perkins moving NE onto the eastern loop and E Memphis. TAKE COVER! https://t.co/N6ylFzYIpx

— MemphisWeather.net (@memphisweather1) October 21, 2019

Wind damage began near Memphis International Airport with trees and limbs down on the west side of the airport, windows blown out in the airport terminal, and damage just east of the airport. The storm's path east-northeast took it parallel to I-240 through Parkway Village, along SR 385 into Hickory Hill, and then into parts of west Germantown near Poplar and Poplar Pike. There were many reports trees down or uprooted, damage to structures (perhaps the worst of which was in the Cottonwood Apartments), and utility poles snapped with wires down. See our Twitter timeline for many reports and photos.

There was also radar evidence of a possible tornado in the form of a "debris ball" - a radar signature that indicates that debris is being lofted into the storm and detected by the radar beam.

pic.twitter.com/GCHCoEbX4k

— Richard Hoseney (@rhoseney) October 21, 2019

MLGW reported that over 43,000 customers (which amounts to more than 100,000 people) lost power during the storms. Scattered traffic light outages were spread across the city. The official peak wind gust at Memphis International Airport was 53 mph, but the storm intensified as it moved east of the airport and rotation in the storm tightened. As of this writing, we are unaware of any major injuries.

An official report from the National Weather Service indicates that the storm produced a preliminary EF-1 rated tornado with maximum wind of 105 mph. Radar evidence and storm damage supports the ground evidence of a tornado. These "QLCS (quasi-linear convective system) tornadoes" - or those that spin up in a squall line and last a short period of time - are very difficult to provide much warning lead time on and frequently are missed completely until after they have done their damage. Fortunately, they also tend to produce damage on the low end of the tornado scale, but that doesn't mean that if one affects you it was no big deal. It is for those affected.

Preliminary EF-1 Tornado damage around Cottonwood Apartment area in Memphis. pic.twitter.com/C1UcXRjwTF

— NWS Memphis (@NWSMemphis) October 21, 2019

A word on "unexpected" storms

Inevitably after a storm that produces damage, we hear that the storm "hit without warning" or was "unexpected." It happened again this morning when MLGW issued a press release calling the storm unexpected.



I understand that there is damage control that must be done when 10% of your customer base loses power. I also understand that perhaps the storm packed more of a punch than what some may have been "expecting." But the presence of a squall line was not unexpected, nor was the timing, nor should have been the potential intensity.

The National Weather Service first mentioned the possibility of Monday's strong storms last Wednesday morning in their Hazardous Weather Outlook - a full five days in advance. By Saturday morning, they had increased their concern level:

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Strong to severe storms are possible on Monday as a cold front 
moves across the Mid-South. Damaging winds, large hail, and
isolated tornadoes will be possible. In addition, heavy rainfall
could lead to flash flooding.

On Sunday, areas along and east of the Mississippi River were included in a Slight Risk (level 2/5) for severe weather on Monday by the Storm Prediction Center. As high-resolution model data got within range of the event, we also posted detailed information Sunday afternoon that had the timing within an hour of the actual event and the mention of a line of storms with damaging wind as the chief concern and an isolated tornado possible. The confidence level was assigned "moderate to high."



By 3am, a Tornado Watch was issued and the line was evident on radar in AR with a history of producing well-publicized tornadoes in the Dallas area. Severe Thunderstorm Warnings were issued well in advance of the line. Tornado Warnings were issued as quickly as possible once rotational signatures became evident.

In my opinion, the squall line was not only NOT unexpected, it was well forecast - down to the hour nearly a day in advance. The potential impact was stated clearly and unequivocally. There is no way to know where and when a tornado will touch down more than minutes in advance. But the possibilities are enumerable and were communicated. Damaging wind was clearly identified as a hazard. It's time to tell it like it is... "a storm system that was well-forecast produced damage that was in line with the potential reasonable worst case scenario and we're doing everything we can to resolve the issues."

No one (in their right mind anyway) expects 43,000 customers to have power restored instantaneously. We just expect hard work towards executing a well-conceived, predefined contingency plan with strong communication on how that plan is evolving throughout the process. I happen to believe MLGW is executing that plan and appreciate the "Memphis grit" that the front line workers are displaying as they work to restore power. Let's not insult the weather community that did an exemplary job attempting to communicate the threat by calling it unexpected.

Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

----
Follow MWN on Facebook and Twitter for routine updates and the latest info!
Complete MWN Forecast: MemphisWeather.net on the mobile web or via the MWN mobile app
Download our iPhone or Android apps, featuring StormWatch+ severe weather alerts!

MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador

Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder

Sunny & hot for now, t'storms return Sunday

While it may not officially be summer yet, the rest of this week and next week sure do feel like summertime. Luckily, rain chances will stay away now through Saturday leaving us with some pretty nice and warm conditions. Shower and thunderstorm chances will return on Sunday, before hanging around throughout next week. Besides that, highs will remain in the 80s for the foreseeable future.

Rest of today

Following what was a busy evening yesterday for some with severe thunderstorms across the area, we are expecting a much more quiet and tranquil evening tonight. Temps will remain in the 80s until sunset, before falling to 68 overnight under clear skies. 

Friday

Another sunny, warm and muggy day is on tap for tomorrow as highs will reach 89. I would not be surprised if it feels like the 90s tomorrow, especially in the afternoon. If you are planning to head out to the World Championship Barbecue Cooking Contest, I would be sure to bring sunscreen and stay hydrated. It will definitely feel like summertime tomorrow. 

Saturday

If you had to choose between Saturday and Sunday for a day outside, Saturday is definitely the day to do so. Sunny skies and warm temperatures return once again with highs nearing 87. Things will get a bit breezy in the afternoon, with sustained winds around 15 mph and gusts upwards of 25-30 mph. Cloud coverage may begin to increase in the afternoon as well, otherwise Saturday looks incredible. 

While shower chances should hold off until Sunday, we will need to keep an eye out for some pesky pop-up thunderstorms Saturday evening. The chance is small, but the chance is there. Hopefully showers will hold off until after midnight. 

Sunday into next week

After a beautiful Saturday, Sunday does not appear to be as nice. While highs will be in the low 80s, showers and thunderstorms will likely put a damper on our day. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to pass through the area through the morning into the afternoon hours. While thunderstorms will be possible, widespread severe weather is not expected. 

GFS shows showers and thunderstorms passing through the Mid-South on Sunday. (Tropical Tidbits)

As we look into next week, we will continue to transition into a summertime weather pattern. Highs are expected to be above average, with temps reaching the mid to upper 80s. 

The Climate Prediction Center shows temperatures will be above average next week throughout the Mid-South. (NOAA/CPC)

With this summertime pattern, shower and thunderstorm chances will be possible through the first half of the week with the best chances in the afternoon hours Tuesday and Wednesday.

Summer Outlook

Every year around this time, the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) releases their June, July, August three-month outlook, otherwise referred to as their summer outlook. For much of the Mid-South, the CPC is expecting relatively near average temperatures across the area with slightly above average precipitation. While this is an overall trend (meaning we could have periods of warmer/cooler weather), it is promising to see.

CPC three-month outlook for temperatures shows near average temperatures for much of the Mid-South this summer. (NOAA/CPC)

CPC three-month outlook for precipitation shows slightly above average precipitation for much of the Mid-South this summer. (NOAA/CPC)

Farewell Note

On a personal note, this will be my last full-time blog for MWN. I have thoroughly enjoyed getting to know the Memphis area over the past year. As a fellow Tennessean, I have always loved working in different areas across the state. I would also like to thank Erik for the opportunity and guidance/mentoring over the past year. The Memphis community will always hold a special place in my heart. As for me, I will be working full-time this summer for the NWS office in Nashville, TN before returning back to Mississippi State this fall to finish up and complete year two of my master's degree.

Caroline MacDonald
MWN Meteorologist Intern

[ Editor's Note: Caroline has been an amazing addition to the MemphisWeather.net team over the past year. I had high expectations based on a very strong reference from another outfit like MWN based in middle TN. Honestly, she exceeded those expectations. I can't thank her enough for the time and dedication she offered to MWN and all of you. Her future in meteorology is bright and I have no doubt she will be a superstar wherever her path leads. Thank you Caroline! You'll always be a part of #TeamMWN in my book!  --Erik ]

----
Follow MWN on Facebook and Twitter for routine updates and the latest info!
Complete MWN Forecast: MemphisWeather.net on the mobile web or via the MWN mobile app
Download our iPhone or Android apps, featuring StormWatch+ severe weather alerts!

MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador

Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder

Behind-the-scenes: providing weather support to Memphis in May

MemphisWeather.net was proud to be the official weather partner of Memphis in May for the third consecutive year! That means that we had a presence on-site anytime the gates were open to the public, as well as provided ancillary forecasting services leading up to all events. It's time-consuming, but very rewarding to be part of an awesome team of staff and volunteers that make Memphis in May a huge success year in and year out! While on-site, our job is to keep a close eye on both current weather conditions and the short-term forecast for the park and the area surrounding it and advise festival officials on any potentially hazardous conditions. These include moderate to heavy rain, lightning, strong wind, hail, and even heat indices and river levels! Communication is accomplished by two-way radio, text message or phone call, and of course face-to-face briefings.

Weather is always tricky for outdoor festivals. If you haven't been in the Memphis area long, May is peak severe weather season in the Mid-South, a fairly wet month in general, and can also feature spells of hot and humid conditions as summer draws closer. This year, we were actually very fortunate in most respects down on the river. Beale Street Music Fest saw rain early on the first day (Friday), but dry conditions by the time gates opened and a pleasant weekend. Strong wind was an issue on Friday and it remained breezy Saturday, otherwise a nice weekend!

Looking north over Tom Lee Park towards downtown from Ashburn-Coppick Park.

The World Championship Barbecue Cooking Contest overall was not bad weather-wise either. Despite seasonally warm and humid conditions, Wednesday night and Thursday were dry. Unfortunately, luck would run out on Friday afternoon as our forecast called for scattered thunderstorms across the metro, which materialized as expected. Out of an abundance of caution and for everyone's safety, the park was evacuated once lightning entered the established safety zone around the park. With roughly 250 metal structures in Tom Lee Park, the area is basically packed with lightning rods.

As storms repeatedly fired just down river from the park and move towards downtown, the park remained closed until the threat diminished, despite no lightning or heavy rain in the park itself. Saturday's forecast looked just as foreboding as Friday, however the barbecue gods smiled down in the form of an early morning outflow boundary that brought morning showers (which settled the dust nicely) and cooler, stable air that resulted in ideal conditions for the afternoon and evening hours. Certainly, the best possible option considering the bad news that computer models were painting for the day!

901Fest featured a great day on the river with luck again on the side of the festival as a severe wind storm that was forecast to arrive that evening hit about an hour after gates closed after a spectacular fireworks display. We are all familiar with the effects of that storm, which produced wind estimated at 70 mph at Tom Lee Park.

The memorial obelisk toppled and shattered by severe wind Saturday night, May 27, just an hour after Tom Lee Park closed following 901Fest. (Photo credit: Joe Birch)

Despite rain and thunder continuing much of the night, the rain let up around the start time for the Great American River Race. The race was delayed for a short time due to overnight cleanup efforts that were required, but despite some early showers, weather cooperated for the majority of the event. Fortunately, the major storms snuck in between 901Fest and the race the next morning! Another stroke of luck.

Having worked "behind-the-scenes" for three Memphis in May festivals now, I have to say that the festival staff is unbelievably great to work with. They are a professional, hard-working, and dedicated group of people whose main goals are the safety and comfort of patrons and ensuring that everything operationally flows as smoothly as possible. They want everyone to have a great time and remain safe - the only way that the festival can remain successful each year. All decisions are made with that in mind. The logistics involved are mind-boggling and knowing that a lot of the 'hands-on' work is done by a small army of dedicated volunteers is even more impressive.

The setup for the official meteorologist of Memphis in May. 

Park evacuations are not taken lightly and only occur when the safety of the patrons, volunteers, and others in the park is threatened. Just because "it isn't even raining at the park" doesn't mean that there is not a threat to safety (i.e., lightning doesn't just occur where rain is falling). It's also a significant challenge on many fronts to clear the park of patrons. Doing so multiple times in a short span is even more complicating. It just makes common sense that the "compliance rate" on subsequent evacuations would drop, thereby raising the risk level for everyone.

Serving as the staff meteorologist means that I provide the weather-related data necessary to allow festival staff to make an informed decision on how to respond. As mentioned, the decisions are not made lightly and all factors are considered. The situation is re-evaluated routinely so as to allow normal operations to resume as soon as the threat has abated. I am honored to be a part of the Memphis in May team and strive to provide the most accurate current weather information and forecasts possible so that the best decisions can be made in line with the goals stated above.

Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

----
Follow MWN on Facebook, Twitter, and Google+
Visit MemphisWeather.net on the web or m.memphisweather.net on your mobile phone.
Download our iPhone or Android apps, featuring StormWatch+ severe weather alerts!

In charge of an outdoor event and interested in having a dedicated meteorologist monitoring the weather specifically for your event? Contact us!

MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador

Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder

Strong storms precede Arctic cold & a commentary on storm warnings

As we predicted in our Friday evening blog, this was indeed a wild and wacky weekend in Mid-South weather. An Arctic cold front, bringing a surge of the coldest air felt yet this winter, sparked widespread thunderstorms along and just behind the front. Wind, both ahead of and behind the front, was a significant issue and the thunderstorms caused scattered wind damage of their own as well.

As the storms entered the metro from the north, cold air from the Arctic front started to out-run the storms and "cut off" their supply of warm air from the bottom, resulting in a lot of lightning and thunder (even as precipitation changed to sleet about 3 hours after temperatures started plummeting from the mid 70s) but little damage. However, in north MS, storms re-developed on the front and tapped into the warm air, as well as a little extra vorticity, or spin, provided by the front itself, and funnel clouds and possibly brief tornadoes resulted. (Tornadoes are unconfirmed at this time, as the National Weather Service has not completed storm surveys.)

Following the storms, temperatures were quick to fall. At MWN on the north side of Bartlett, the mercury fell from 75° at 7:20pm to 53° in twenty minutes, 44° in less than an hour, and into the 30s in less than two hours. The graphs below show the precipitous drop in temperature and subsequent rise in pressure behind the front.


Fortunately, precipitation tapered fairly quickly once the frozen stuff began to mix into the rain and only light amounts of sleet occurred. By Sunday morning, roads were mainly dry, or at least just a bit damp, with temperatures in the mid 20s and a biting north wind.

Moving on to the aftermath, the greatest damage I have seen via social media and news reports is a series of power poles snapped and an apparent fire at the Gateway Tire store on McIngvale Road in Hernando, across the street from Hernando High School on the east side of I-55, and some minor roof damage in an adjoining neighborhood.

Storm clean up underway in Hernando https://t.co/3DJaWJXTht pic.twitter.com/NCfMoYIPk3

— FOX13 Memphis (@FOX13Memphis) December 19, 2016

Re-creating the timeline of events, the first report of something suspicious in the area was actually an aircraft on final approach to Memphis International about 10 miles south of the airport at 8:45pm. The flight crew reported seeing a "possible tornado." There are some discrepancies with the report in that the pilot report (PIREP) location was provided as 10 miles south of MEM, but the actual text of the report stated "2 mile short final [approach to MEM]." Either way, something fishy was occurring in storms south of the airport. Within a couple of minutes of the report reaching the National Weather Service, a Severe Thunderstorm Warning was issued for the storm, at 8:54pm. Then a couple minutes later, public reports of power lines down (as described above) were received. Subsequent storms, beginning about a quarter past 9:00, prompted Tornado Warnings for eastern DeSoto County and points south and east (Marshall and Tate Counties in particular). However, a Tornado Warning was never issued for the storm that produced damage in Hernando.

Commentary

I have received several reports of "sirens not sounding" and an eyewitness in the news report above seemed to indicate that the storm hit without warning. I have a handful of comments. I'll try not to lose followers with these comments, but be forewarned, this part is commentary.

1. "Sirens didn't sound for this storm" is true. I have not (yet) talked to DeSoto County EMA, which is the agency responsible for the sirens, but there was no Tornado Warning, therefore they (properly) didn't sound. (A Tornado Warning WAS issued for eastern DeSoto County about 9:15pm for a different storm. I'm not sure if sirens sounded for that storm, or if not, why not. I'll try to find out.)
2. I'll be blunt. If sirens are your primary means of taking action in the face of a possible tornado, and you're inside, you're doing it wrong. Sirens are for outdoor use. With pounding rain, thunder, and strong wind, their range is limited and sound muffled. DO NOT RELY SOLELY ON SIRENS FOR YOUR WARNING SYSTEM. They serve a purpose. It isn't for indoor warning, even if one is not far from where you are. They are to let those outside know that they are in a dangerous situation and to go take shelter or, at the least, gather more information on the threat.
3. I had stated yesterday in social media posts that the tornado threat would be primarily limited to brief tornadoes that would likely occur in the line of storms. These types of non-supercell tornadoes are quick to touch down and lift and exceptionally hard to warn for given current technology. The NWS does a fantastic job, but if they were to warn for every thunderstorm that rotates, the false alarm rate would be close to 100% (because the vast majority of rotating storms don't produce tornadoes with damage) and more people (than already do) would not pay any attention to them. 
4. I'm assuming there was no Tornado Warning for the storm in question because the tornado (assuming one occurred, which isn't confirmed at this point) was brief and had lifted before the warning forecaster had even seen it on radar. Again, I haven't spoken to the NWS, but I have good friends who work there and I've observed warning operations in person before. The storm was at the least producing strong wind and a Severe Thunderstorm Warning was issued for those in the path of the storm moments later.
5. Blunt, again... I'm getting tired of hearing people say that the storm "hit without warning," or in this case, "I don't think anybody expected it at all." Now, MAYBE the person who said this in the article above meant that she (and "anybody" else, whoever that is) didn't expect it could actually happen to her. But all of the local (and even national) weather folks had been talking about the real potential for severe weather in our area at least since Friday (and it was mentioned by us a couple days before that). There was a Tornado Watch issued mid-afternoon, many hours before the storms arrived. For gosh sakes, it's December and the temperature is 75° with very humid air and a strong wind! If you somehow didn't know you were in a watch box, the conditions should've been enough to tell you that maybe you should be paying closer attention to a weather source! That particular storm doing damage in that section of Hernando might've not been predicted, but the fact that it COULD happen means it was not completely unexpected. 
6. It's 2016. You all have multiple options for staying abreast of rapidly changing weather conditions. I can tweet until my fingers fall off and the TV weatherman can talk until he runs out of breath, but if the public doesn't take some amount of personal responsibility for becoming a knowledgeable consumer, then our efforts are for naught. 
7. There's a massive push underway to put more "social science" in meteorology. Not only producing accurate forecasts and warnings, but creating and disseminating the products in a way that will result in the most eyes and ears taking notice, comprehending, and taking action against. I'm all for this. But I also know that there are some folks out there that you can tell a tornado is going to hit their house in 5 minutes with 100% certainty and they still won't respond. Lack of personal responsibility will always result in some people saying they "didn't know" that xyz was going to happen. It hit without warning! If you're reading this blog, I assume you're not one of those people. 
8. I'm all for better products and services that can reach the most folks and end in response and preparation, but I also believe that we (the scientists) can't sacrifice improving the science and accuracy of our products in the name of trying to figure out a way to personally hit some people over the head to try and get them to respond. The response is up to the individual, based on their individual risk and tolerance level, assuming they get the information. Personal responsibility says don't rely solely on sirens (or any single source, they'll all fail you at some point). Personal responsibility says you must take action if the information you have gathered results in a threat that exceeds your risk/tolerance level.

Be safe, be prepared, and be responsible.

Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

----
Follow MWN on Facebook, Twitter, and Google+
Visit MemphisWeather.net on the web or m.memphisweather.net on your mobile phone.
Download our iPhone or Android apps, featuring StormWatch+ severe weather alerts!

MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador

Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder

Commentary: On forecasting tropical systems that haven't yet formed

You've likely heard the hype. A tropical wave that has not yet formed into a storm is "bearing down on the Caribbean" and sure to pose the gravest threat to the United States since Twitter was born. Millions are in the potential path! Maybe you've even heard of a "triple threat" to the U.S. because there are two other storms in the Atlantic, even though they have virtually no chance of reaching American shores.

Tonight I thought I would take a few minutes to explain why responsible meteorologists (as I consider myself to be) can't, and won't, predict what the yet-unnamed tropical cyclone approaching the Caribbean is going to do. It's part of the education process I engage in with MemphisWeather.net, particularly because I display the Weather-Ready Nation and NWA Digital Seal logos that mean I am a responsible purveyor of weather information.

But first, why even bring this up? We aren't near the coast, so why does it matter? Because I get your questions and answer almost all of them! "What does the European model say today? It's always right!" Also because many of us have interests in near-coastal locations - relatives, friends who have moved, or maybe even our favorite beach spots. The Mid-South is also near enough to the central Gulf coast that when a big storm heads that way, we need to pay attention. If it doesn't directly affect our weather, it likely will indirectly.

Forecasting in the early stages of development

So here's the problem. A tropical wave that is still a few clusters of thunderstorms, with no "closed circulation" (meaning it is not yet an actual low pressure system), is not well-observed by the computer models. And if it's not well observed, it isn't going to be well-forecast. There are simply too many variables, including whether or not it will actually form and then how strong will it be and where will it go. Models, and the human "interpreters" that forecast these systems, are getting better, but it's still very difficult especially in the early stages of a system.

Some examples

Look at these examples from today. Here's this evening's model "spaghetti plot." It looks like a pot of noodles! The colored lines are forecast tracks of this particular system by various computer models. The tighter they are together, the higher the confidence in the track as they all have roughly the same solution. The farther apart they diverge, the lower the confidence, because the solutions are very spread out. In this case, a couple models say the system will miss the east coast altogether while a couple point it towards the mouth of the Mississippi River. In other words, the "spread" of the models doesn't tell us who should be preparing for the storm! Sure it looks like southern Florida has the best chance, but when? And how strong will it be? And then where does it go??

The next graphic shows the forecast strength of the system, going out in time. What does it tell me? That we could have a system that remains a weak tropical depression with little impact other than rain for the next week, or we could have a category 4 hurricane in 5 days! The models don't have any idea, even if you throw out that aggressive GFNI model.

What does history tell us about how well the forecasts from the National Hurricane Center (you know, the "experts" at this stuff) pan out? See below. Forecast error is on the left (vertical) axis and time is along the bottom. Each colored bar represents a certain type of storm based on intensity. As you can see, the weaker the system being forecast, the worse the track error is, especially as you get further out in time. The average error for a weak system at 5 days is over 350 miles! And these are the experts that interpret all the data, not the models!

The point here is that we don't know where "99L" or "Hermine" will go or how strong it will be yet. Or even if it will become Hermine for that matter. What we do know is that it's something we, as meteorologists, need to keep a keen eye on. In addition, your responsibility is to keep in touch with your trusted sources and not fall for the bait of a bold headline, slick graphic, or doomsday prediction. Here's how I handle long-range forecasts of impactful weather events, including tropical tracks, beyond more than a few days:

The only time we post longer-range forecasts is if there is A) some model consensus & B) it's within about a week. Even then, with caveats.

— MemphisWeather.net (@memphisweather1) August 20, 2016

Thanks for making MemphisWeather.net one of your trusted sources! I'll continue to work diligently to ensure that trust is not broken, including saying "I'm not sure" if I'm not.

Stay tuned to our social media feeds listed below for the latest "truth without the hype" outlooks and forecasts.

Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

----
Follow MWN on Facebook, Twitter, and Google+
Visit MemphisWeather.net on the web or m.memphisweather.net on your mobile phone.
Download our iPhone or Android apps, featuring StormWatch+ severe weather alerts!

MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador

Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder

Waterlogged Mid-South begins to dry out, and a little commentary

Recap of the past week

What an amazing weather week! The stage was set with daily record rainfall amounts on Wednesday and Thursday as nearly 8" of rain fell on the city, creating flash flooding scenarios, filling tributaries, and saturating the ground. That was followed by additional rounds of rainfall to end the week that dropped varying amounts, but exacerbated the flooding problem since all rain became runoff.

Estimated precipitation totals from March 8-10 courtesy NWS-Memphis.

The wet period ended late Sunday evening with a potent upper level system and accompanying surface low passing through the region, bringing a round of severe storms that promoted Tornado Warnings in the metro. Officially, the Memphis airport received 10.61" of rain since last Tuesday night, which puts March 2016 in 5th place for wettest March on record - and it's only the 14th. Another 1.25" is all that is needed to become the wettest March on record.

7-day rainfall amounts from the NWS show a swath of 10-12"+ amounts from northern Louisiana across southeast AR, and into the metro. Graphic courtesy WeatherBell.

The week ahead

Fortunately the next several days are looking much drier. Despite a couple of opportunities for light precip, no heavy rainfall is expected. In fact, we'll be back up to 80 degrees tomorrow with mostly sunny skies after a pleasantly sunny day today that saw temps in the 70s. Slight chances of rain will occur Tuesday night with a cold frontal passage and again Wednesday night as a weak system slides by to our south. A general cooling trend is expected as we head towards the weekend with rain chances returning late Friday into Saturday, but no heavy rain expected. Click here for the latest forecast from MWN.

NWS forecast for precipitation amounts over the next week. No heavy rain is expected, though a few passing systems could bring light amounts. This forecast subject to revision. Graphic courtesy WeatherBell.

Commentary

In the wake of this past weekend's weather, I have a few comments to make and I'll keep them brief.

• I'm PROUD and GRATEFUL for the contributions of my #TeamMWN interns, past and present. Several months ago, my wife and I registered for an out-of-town retreat for this past weekend. There was no changing it, and we had a great time. But somebody had to keep you all up to date! Enter current interns Patrick and Zeb and former interns William and Kevin, who were pulled "off the shelf." All four of them were in various stages of spring break and/or travel plans of their own, but all committed time to MWN to keep the home fires burning! You were in good hands and I was able to preserve my marriage! LOL. Outstanding work, gentlemen. Thank you!
• I returned in time to nowcast the evening severe weather event with Patrick. In case you weren't aware, we typically tag-team big events to make sure everything is covered and you all get the info you need. Fortunately, lingering effects of a weekend of flu-like symptoms (no really, how great is that?) didn't keep me out of the game! Despite some serious-looking storms, an amazing light show, and a bunch more unneeded rain, we are fortunate there wasn't more damage.
• Side note: if you put bullets 1 & 2 together, you'll know why I believe my wife is a saint. We got a planned weekend away, and she got stuck with a sick husband! Then I came home and worked a severe weather event. I love you honey! :-) 
• Enough of the mushy stuff... a couple of comments on last night's Tornado Warnings, particularly the Shelby County warning:

1. The storm that produced the warning had a history of producing a tornado, but had traveled over lightly-populated area as it approached the metro from the southwest. The National Weather Service had received no reports as the storm neared the metro despite a Tornado Warning being in effect and decent rotation being observed on radar. 
2. As it neared the southwest tip of the metro, the NWS opted for a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for northwest DeSoto County and the heart of Memphis and Shelby County as rotation had become fairly broad and there were no ground reports from the storm of damage. Shortly after issuing, an unconfirmed report of a funnel cloud was received in northwest DeSoto County.
3. In an abundance of caution and with broad rotation, but no "tornadic signature," evident on radar, a Tornado Warning was issued for Southaven and much of the southern and central sections of Shelby County, including Memphis. With a storm that had a history of "nefarious behavior," a possible funnel reported, and a highly-populated area ahead of it - after dark - that was absolutely the right call. You simply can't make a mistake the other direction and not warn the public. Once the storm had traveled over some of that population center and no reports were received of damage, as well as the storm becoming less organized, it was also a good call to cancel the Tornado Warning early.
4. Sirens... We had a "YUGE" (as Trump would say) number of questions on their sounding or not sounding when people thought they should/shouldn't. I've discussed the purpose of sirens before and regular readers and followers know you shouldn't count on them, especially indoors at night with pouring rain and wind. They are for outdoor use only. I'll make two points on their use. First, depending on where you live, the siren activation policy is different, even across Shelby County. Memphis and Shelby County (outside of Bartlett, Collierville and Germantown) currently sound for their entire area of responsibility if any part of Shelby County is under a warning. Bartlett, Collierville, and Germantown sound them if any part of their individual municipality is affected. Memphis was pursuing a more targeted siren policy some time ago, but so far that has not transpired. Second, the sirens are manually activated by the authorities in the respective jurisdictions, not by the NWS. That means that they are also DE-ACTIVATED manually. Sometimes it takes several minutes, especially if a warning is cancelled early, for that jurisdiction to shut down their sirens. It's not surprising then that sirens will still be sounding for a bit after a warning is cancelled.  Thirdly, in general, many of the sirens will wail for a couple of minutes, stop for a couple minutes, then start back up again. This is because they use mechanical motors and running them for 30-60 minutes straight burns the motors up. To keep their lifespan high, the cycling is necessary. We have an Outdoor Siren Page on MWN that you may wish to visit.

Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

----
Follow MWN on Facebook, Twitter, and Google+
Visit MemphisWeather.net on the web or m.memphisweather.net on your mobile phone.
Download our iPhone or Android apps, featuring StormWatch+ severe weather alerts!

On "busted" forecasts, building trust, and expectations

Have you ever tried to predict the final score of a sports game - basketball, football, or even low-scoring games like soccer - before it began? Probably not, though you may have put money, or maybe just a handshake, on the final score - either an over/under or against the spread.

How hard is it, for example, to predict the total number of points that will be scored in a basketball game before the game begins? I'll even give you a buffer of 5-10 points for a "right" answer. Even right before the game, you don't know how individual players will perform, how external factors will be involved, how the game will be called by the referees, let alone a freak injury to the star player.

And if you have money or your reputation on the line? The stakes grow higher.

It's similar for your local meteorologist trying to predict the amount of snow your backyard will receive. Sure, we have pretty good stats on the factors (players) involved, the predictability can generally be quantified, and we can use history as a guide. But sometimes the key player (an upper level low for instance) suffers a broken face ala Mike Conley. Or more likely, the key player under-performs versus what you would expect for any of a number of reasons, as the "deformation zone" did this morning.

And like the gambler, the stakes are high if you have enough people that rely on your opinion to make decisions that are important to them.

This is not a commentary of excuses. It's not even really a commentary of "reasons." It's more to get a few things off my chest, which maybe I should keep to myself but here they are anyway.

Before I get too far though, I will start by apologizing. I know, I don't have to. But I need to, if for no other reason than to clear my conscience. You don't have to accept it. It doesn't both me one way or the other. It's your problem if you want to hold a grudge, not mine. But I still feel like I owe you an apology because you made plans that either were or weren't necessary, you had hopes and expectations that were dashed, or you had trust in a stated outcome, even if that outcome was caveated (which it was).

If there's one thing I strive to do more than accurately predict the weather, it's to earn and keep your trust. I teach my kids that trust is hard to gain, but easy to lose. I spend hours poring over computer model data, reading and learning to refine my skills, studying social media trends and technique, and diligently answering your questions and comments or anticipating them so I can answer them in a blog before you ask.  Trust is as big a deal to me as nailing a forecast. I work very hard at both. Part of maintaining that trust, in my opinion, is admitting when you are wrong. I was wrong (at least partially considering the entire area I was forecasting for, but maybe for your backyard, completely).

My dilemma, or maybe it's not actually mine, is that some of you have expectations that, honestly, can't be met. Just like you can't predict the final score of a basketball game before it tips, I can't tell you how much snow you'll get in your backyard! It's that simple. No amount of money poured into technology or brilliance of atmospheric scientists with PhD's will produce a computer model that can do that anytime in the near future! (Side note: Though the ultimate position of the axis of heaviest snow didn't quite extend into the metro as far as I predicted, nor did it produce quite as much snow as expected, there were 3" snow reports on the Shelby/Tipton border, which is literally just several miles from those of you who claimed to get "nothing." Higher totals weren't much farther north than that. That means the forecast wasn't actually as bad as your perception of it. But that's not my point here.)

There are also those that seem to not be happy unless the worst happens. In predicting and communicating the weather, we as a weather industry will almost always err on the side of caution. Not to the extent that we're crying wolf intentionally or "hyping," but making sure that the array of possible outcomes we communicate reasonably include some of the credible outliers. There are those who get mad because they didn't get the snow on the highest end of the range or insist that because "it didn't happen at my house" it shouldn't be discussed. I have 3 words: "bless your heart."

Providing all reasonable outcomes allows decision makers (including each of you) to prepare for that outcome. We would rather over-warn than under-warn, because under-warning has much more dire consequences. It's the nature of the business. (Side note on "hype": we don't hype on MWN. Hype requires that I am overstating because there is something in it for me. The services we provide, by and large, are free. I gain nothing, but stand to lose a lot of that trust I talked about above, by overstating intentionally.)

Finally, the other problem that is not mine, but that I have to deal with in this business, is the preponderance of comments that are shared electronically that most human beings would never share to another person's face. We feel like we can hide behind an online "persona" or type whatever we're thinking without filter. I understand it and occasionally have been guilty of it myself, but I try hard to make sure that I don't "share" something in print that I wouldn't say if the person were standing in front of me. Asking kindly for an explanation as to what went wrong with a forecast is one thing, but passive-aggressive statements and outright blame for something I have ZERO control over is uncalled for. Again, "bless your heart."

Some will say, "Well you chose your field and chose to make yourself 'available' to the public by getting on Twitter and Facebook, that's what you get when you screw up!" No, I CHOSE my field because I had a passion for it long before Twitter had been invented. I CHOSE to be on social media because I felt like I had something valuable to offer and it was a means to offer that service. I didn't choose to be thrown under a bus. But, I realize, sometimes that comes with the territory. Meteorologists that have been in the field for any length of time gain a thick skin. We know when we're wrong before you do most of the time because, as a whole, we are as passionate about what we do as any career out there. We judge ourselves before you judge us. Ask just about any meteorologist why they do what they do and it's because they LOVE their job and couldn't imagine doing anything else. When things don't work out, we work to figure out why so we can do better next time.

One last comment: to those who have taken the time to write a note of appreciation or encouragement today, or any other day, THANK YOU. It's why I do this. Together, we'll shake off the haters. :-)

Thanks for reading and for placing your TRUST in MemphisWeather.net. My team and I work hard to provide the very best service possible, but there are definitely times we mess up, and I can guarantee you there will be more! In this business, they are called "opportunities to learn and grow." Someone much more powerful than me is in control, I just try to predict the outcome!

Be safe and enjoy the snow day,

Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

Regarding medium-range snowfall forecasts and this week's chances

From a weather perspective, most attention nationally is focused on potential impacts from a Nor'Easter early this weekend in the media capital of the world. But here in the Mid-South, we'll be dealing with the backside of the same low pressure system that becomes the Nor'Easter late Thursday night/Friday morning. As the low pulls away, cold air will dive south, potentially changing lingering rain into snow.

This post serves as a reminder of how best to consume "#snOMG forecasts" (snow-OMG, or models showing crazy, excessive, or improbable snow totals beyond a couple of days in advance). I'll also lump in any snowfall graphic that doesn't clearly describe the source and include some context on the confidence or probability of the depicted scenario occurring. In a nutshell, take any of those types of forecasts with a grain of salt! I'm not saying that the #snOMG scenario can't, or won't, happen, just as I'm not saying you won't win the lottery if you buy a ticket!

Looking past the early Wednesday event, which I have high confidence will be a cold rain in the metro, the next potential winter event is early Friday. I've seen several people sharing graphics from the "born-in-the-USA" GFS model this morning with little to no context. In fact I'll share this morning's hype-cast model run, with you too...

So those who would like you to believe (or maybe just want to believe themselves and also happen to have a public voice on Facebook or Twitter) that we will get accumulating snow will post something like the above, only without the caveats I added.

Let me add some responsible context to the above graphic - not because I hate snow (I actually love snow), but because it's the responsible thing to do. I don't shy away from discussing snow chances, I just do it in a responsible fashion.

1. The same GFS model has an "ensemble" system in which the model is run 21 additional times with very slightly different parameters as input in an attempt to address the uncertainty factor and provide a range of possible options. Of the 22 total members, only 7 have 2" of snow. This means that there is roughly a 32% chance that 2" or more of snow falls, according to the same model that everyone is sharing that says we'll get 3-5". Here is the snowfall forecast from all 22 GFS ensemble members:

All 22 members of the GFS ensemble forecast from this morning, showing the possible snowfall totals by Friday evening. Graphic courtesy of the awesome weather model site WeatherBell Analytics.

2. The morning run of the European (ECMWF) model that so many people like to hang their hat on for medium-range forecasting (especially when it is convenient to do so), indicates we could see a dusting to 1/2" of snow. (Graphic not shown due to sharing restrictions by the provider and European modeling center, so you'll have to trust me on this one.)

3. Like the GFS, the European model also has an ensemble, only its made up of 51 members rather than 21. A check of the precip totals from last night's European ensemble forecasts (this morning's run was not complete as of this writing) showed that only 9 of them forecast 1" or more of precipitation. So that means the Europeans, which are so darn good at medium-range forecasting, give us less than a 20% chance of 1" of snow.

4. I also looked at the Canadian, Japanese, UK, and Navy models - basically everything I could get my hands on - and none of them showed the amount of snow the GFS is showing. Finally, let's go to the official government source of forecasts for the U.S., the National Weather Service. Their 4-day winter weather outlook depicts just a 10% chance of receiving 0.25" of liquid equivalent (melted) snow/sleet. Since snow typically has about a 10:1 snow/rain ratio, that equates to about 2.5" of snow. Thus, a 10% chance of 2.5" of snow. Not out of the realm to see this much, but not likely by any means.

The NWS 4-day winter weather outlook shows a 10% chance of seeing roughly 2.5" of snow, based on .25" liquid equivalent. 

So, the best snowfall forecast beyond a couple of days is not a single model run from your favorite model, but simply...

For more on how to handle these long-range "hype-casts" and our goals at MWN with respect to these types of forecasts, see this write-up we posted a couple of weeks ago.

As always, we'll watch the models and evolving patterns and let you know what we expect when we have the confidence to say so, or if we have low confidence, we'll let you know that too! Please don't take the four-day forecast of 5" you saw on Facebook, disregard updates from your trusted sources between now and then, and wonder why "they got it wrong again" when you wake up to a dusting Friday morning!

More updates as we go through the week, including that low confidence Wednesday morning event. See our social media feeds or forecast in the MWN app.

Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

----
Follow MWN on Facebook, Twitter, and Google+
Visit MemphisWeather.net on the web or m.memphisweather.net on your mobile phone.
Download our iPhone or Android apps, featuring StormWatch+ severe weather alerts!

Commentary: On long-range "hype-casts" and YOUR responsibility

Winter has arrived and with it the appearance of long-range winter storm or snow maps that go viral on Facebook and Twitter. This post puts me "on the record" on these social media sensations, which I call "hype-casts."

The perceived need by many to try and reach the masses (whether with good intent or just as part of a game to try to go viral) has resulted in click-bait headlines (those intended only to get the reader to "click") and slick/catchy graphics, even if the part that catches the eye (or even the embedded content) is partially true, misleading, or just plain false.

A typical long-range hype-cast with vague wording and a broad-brushed impact zone, requesting an "immediate share." 

This applies in the weather realm as well. Sharing of weather graphics - whether created by professionals or novices or simply shared from computer model websites - has grown more common as access to weather model data becomes easier and social media has matured to the point that anything can go viral (and for some, that is the sole goal). Though there probably aren't a lot of "offenders" that spread misleading (to be kind) graphics and headlines, it doesn't take but a few to cause mass confusion, or in some cases, chaos. Professional meteorologists that are ethical end up spending as much time debunking, or at least attempting to explain, these misleading posts as they do creating their own forecasts!

Beware of internet trolls: There is currently NO WINTER STORM...NO SNOW or ICE in the forecast for our area. We will get cold (but dry).

— Brad Nitz (@BradNitzWSB) January 3, 2016

Millions in the path!

The graphics and/or headlines tend to be of two varieties - severe weather outbreaks or major winter storms. Neither of these are impermissible to share and inform the public of, per se. However, the offending posts are generally shared many days to weeks in advance of the so-called event, when the first long-range computer model "sniffs out" a major storm (or even a pattern that could support such a storm). Typically, the proposed outcome is not shared by other computer models and that same model has a completely different solution on its next run (these models produce a completely new set of forecast data 2-4 times each day, called a model run).

An excellent graphic from 2014 by NWS-Memphis on why "exact" long-range snowfall forecasts should be treated with skepticism. The further out from the time of the event (day 0 to the right) the wider the range of possibilities that exists. For a more detailed explanation, see the complete Facebook post that accompanies this graphic.

Dealing with the problem

There is increasing debate in the meteorological community about how to handle both the problem and the offenders. I will not wade into that topic too far at this point, other than to say that it isn't just "backyard meteorologists" or "kids" that are at fault for creating the mess. (Most of us meteorologists started as one of those kids that was eager to learn and practice our new love, we just didn't have the vault of available model data and social sharing platforms that are available today.) Some professionals are simply too eager to be the first on the scene, just in case it becomes breaking news a few days down the road.

There are ways to deal with each of these groups. Professional organizations are one means of doing so, by certifying meteorologists and issuing seals of approval for those who meet certain standards. However, I feel that most of the population would not look for, or even care, whether their source is certified. So the best way to deal with the situation for now is to educate you, the public.

What should I do?

So, what should the average Joe or Suzy Q. Public do when presented with a weather graphic or story with click-bait headline that they are uncertain of?

1. Beware the share! If you aren't sure whether it's valid, stop the bleeding and quit sharing. 
2. Know your trusted sources. Trusted sources are the qualified individuals that have told it to their audience straight before, admitted when they were wrong, and don't hype for hype's sake. 
3. Ask that source. They should take the time, either in direct response or through a general post on the topic, to address the issue. 
4. Be skeptical. If it's more than 5-7 days out and it's extreme weather for your area, trust me, it isn't "likely." It may be possible, plausible, or conditional, but it isn't a guarantee. If the graphic doesn't have a logo or source clearly labelled, paints a very general picture with wording that is "extreme," or has an explanation that seems far-fetched or just mixes in lots of big words and acronyms that don't make sense, skepticism is the best way to view it. 

Our goal at MWN

Our goal at MemphisWeather.net is to become, and remain, your trusted source for Memphis and Mid-South weather information. We do that with a stated mission of "protecting, informing, and educating" you, the consumers, on impactful weather scenarios. This includes letting you know when there is a decent chance of a particular event occurring, within a reasonable timeframe, but only when we have enough confidence in a plausible solution that it can be shared without hype. Typically this means the solution is proposed by multiple models and/or is fairly consistent over a series of model runs.

We also will clearly identify anything that is strictly model data as such, so that you know that there is inherent uncertainty in the final outcome. In essence, we strive to follow the guidelines in #2 above. We hope that you trust us to do as we state and will question us if we stray. At the very least, we'll be responsive, as long as you're not a troll. :-)

Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

----
Follow MWN on Facebook, Twitter, and Google+
Visit MemphisWeather.net on the web or m.memphisweather.net on your mobile phone.
Download our iPhone or Android apps, featuring StormWatch+ severe weather alerts!