The May pattern continues as we cast our gaze towards the Gulf of Mexico

We really haven't caught much of any break over the past few weeks from the above average temperatures. The record average monthly temperature for May is 76.8° which occurred back in 1962. If May were to end today, we would have the second highest average temperature for the month of May at 76.6°. And for the period May 1-23, this year currently is the warmest on record! While we won't be setting any record high temps in the next few days, temps will still be 5 to 10 degrees above average.

End of the work week

Right now our overall weather pattern has been dominated by a weak mid-level ridge that has been hanging out over our area. This ridge has helped keep those afternoon thunderstorm chances down a bit the past day or two. At the surface, a high pressure system is located in the Ohio River Valley, which has also helped to keep our temps above average and afternoon shower chances to a minimum.

The majority of the Eastern U.S. is dominated by a surface high pressure, which has helped to keep our temps well above average this week. A cold front boundary is located nearly over the metro, but will not affect our temps that much unfortunately. (NOAA/WPC)

Overall, today and tomorrow look to be pretty similar. While mid-level features will try to push the already weak ridge out of our area, the trough following behind will not be strong enough to really impact our overall weather conditions, other than perhaps a few more afternoon showers or thunderstorms.

Taking a look at the 500mb (18,000') level, notice the higher heights (what looks like a hill) located over the eastern U.S. into tonight with some lower heights (a "valley") beginning to move into our area tomorrow. This change in mid-level heights shows a very weak trough moving into our area which will bring some more shower chances tomorrow. (Pivotal Weather)

Highs will stay in the upper 80s to finish up the work week with some scattered afternoon showers/thunderstorm chances each day. Given the location of the stationary boundary, this will help keep some cloud coverage around both days as well.

The holiday weekend

As we move into Memorial Day weekend, the previously mentioned mid-level trough will begin to have more of an impact. Overall, temps look to follow the typical summertime vibes with highs reaching the upper 80s on Saturday and Sunday. Dewpoint temperatures look to be pretty uncomfortable both days as well - near 70 degrees - making for a sticky, sweaty airmass. 

As for rain chances, our afternoon rain chances look to increase slightly both days. Showers and thunderstorms will likely still be scattered in nature, so not everyone will see these showers. Hopefully they will hold off in the AM for those running in the Great American River Run on Saturday. By Saturday afternoon, rain chances will increase a bit, but I wouldn't let that discourage you from going downtown for #901Fest to wrap up Memphis in May. Overall, there is no need to cancel any plans this weekend, but having a good rain plan just in case would be beneficial. 

The GFS model shows scattered showers mainly Saturday and Sunday afternoons around our area. This loop runs from late Friday night through late Sunday night. (Pivotal Weather)

Memorial Day

Yes, there is a developing tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico.

In short, the National Hurricane Center is keeping a very close eye on an area of low pressure currently stationed in the Yucatan Peninsula. This system is expected to become more well-defined in the coming days as it moves into the Gulf of Mexico where warm water awaits. The conditions in the Caribbean Sea, where it is currently located, are favorable for this system to develop into a tropical system. 

The image above displays the chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next five days.  The red bubble indicates the area where there is now a 90% chance of formation within the next five days. (NOAA/NHC)

There is a 70% chance of development within the next 48 hours and a 90% chance of formation in the next 5 days. The system will likely continue to develop in the coming days. While this developing system won't necessarily get to hurricane strength, the main threats will be in the form of copious rainfall for the southeast U.S. and rip currents on the coast, which will likely make the waters at many beaches dangerous.

So what exactly does this mean for us? Two things. 

First of all, we could potentially see some rain from this system in our area sometime next week. There are still enough variables at play that the "how much" and "when" questions can't be answered. We are currently expecting our scattered thunderstorm regime of this weekend to continue into Memorial Day and beyond.

Secondly, schools are getting out for the summer, which means a lot of people have beach trip plans. If you are planning to head to the central or Florida Gulf Coasts this weekend or next week, it would be a good idea to keep up with the National Hurricane Center statements and local National Weather Service offices and local media in the area you are planning to go to. Here are the latest key messages from NHC:

We hope that you all have a safe and enjoyable Memorial Day weekend as summer "unofficially" kicks off (despite it starting May 1 in the atmosphere here in the Mid-South)! Remember that you can take your MemphisWeather.net app with StormWatch+ activated with you on vacation for severe instant weather warnings, no matter where you go in the U.S.! And for local forecasts, radar, and current conditions nationwide, we recommend the free StormWatch+ standalone app for iOS devices. No need to pay for severe weather alerts in that app if you already have them in your MWN app!

Caroline MacDonald
MWN Meteorologist Intern

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Behind-the-scenes: providing weather support to Memphis in May

MemphisWeather.net was proud to be the official weather partner of Memphis in May for the third consecutive year! That means that we had a presence on-site anytime the gates were open to the public, as well as provided ancillary forecasting services leading up to all events. It's time-consuming, but very rewarding to be part of an awesome team of staff and volunteers that make Memphis in May a huge success year in and year out! While on-site, our job is to keep a close eye on both current weather conditions and the short-term forecast for the park and the area surrounding it and advise festival officials on any potentially hazardous conditions. These include moderate to heavy rain, lightning, strong wind, hail, and even heat indices and river levels! Communication is accomplished by two-way radio, text message or phone call, and of course face-to-face briefings.

Weather is always tricky for outdoor festivals. If you haven't been in the Memphis area long, May is peak severe weather season in the Mid-South, a fairly wet month in general, and can also feature spells of hot and humid conditions as summer draws closer. This year, we were actually very fortunate in most respects down on the river. Beale Street Music Fest saw rain early on the first day (Friday), but dry conditions by the time gates opened and a pleasant weekend. Strong wind was an issue on Friday and it remained breezy Saturday, otherwise a nice weekend!

Looking north over Tom Lee Park towards downtown from Ashburn-Coppick Park.

The World Championship Barbecue Cooking Contest overall was not bad weather-wise either. Despite seasonally warm and humid conditions, Wednesday night and Thursday were dry. Unfortunately, luck would run out on Friday afternoon as our forecast called for scattered thunderstorms across the metro, which materialized as expected. Out of an abundance of caution and for everyone's safety, the park was evacuated once lightning entered the established safety zone around the park. With roughly 250 metal structures in Tom Lee Park, the area is basically packed with lightning rods.

As storms repeatedly fired just down river from the park and move towards downtown, the park remained closed until the threat diminished, despite no lightning or heavy rain in the park itself. Saturday's forecast looked just as foreboding as Friday, however the barbecue gods smiled down in the form of an early morning outflow boundary that brought morning showers (which settled the dust nicely) and cooler, stable air that resulted in ideal conditions for the afternoon and evening hours. Certainly, the best possible option considering the bad news that computer models were painting for the day!

901Fest featured a great day on the river with luck again on the side of the festival as a severe wind storm that was forecast to arrive that evening hit about an hour after gates closed after a spectacular fireworks display. We are all familiar with the effects of that storm, which produced wind estimated at 70 mph at Tom Lee Park.

The memorial obelisk toppled and shattered by severe wind Saturday night, May 27, just an hour after Tom Lee Park closed following 901Fest. (Photo credit: Joe Birch)

Despite rain and thunder continuing much of the night, the rain let up around the start time for the Great American River Race. The race was delayed for a short time due to overnight cleanup efforts that were required, but despite some early showers, weather cooperated for the majority of the event. Fortunately, the major storms snuck in between 901Fest and the race the next morning! Another stroke of luck.

Having worked "behind-the-scenes" for three Memphis in May festivals now, I have to say that the festival staff is unbelievably great to work with. They are a professional, hard-working, and dedicated group of people whose main goals are the safety and comfort of patrons and ensuring that everything operationally flows as smoothly as possible. They want everyone to have a great time and remain safe - the only way that the festival can remain successful each year. All decisions are made with that in mind. The logistics involved are mind-boggling and knowing that a lot of the 'hands-on' work is done by a small army of dedicated volunteers is even more impressive.

The setup for the official meteorologist of Memphis in May. 

Park evacuations are not taken lightly and only occur when the safety of the patrons, volunteers, and others in the park is threatened. Just because "it isn't even raining at the park" doesn't mean that there is not a threat to safety (i.e., lightning doesn't just occur where rain is falling). It's also a significant challenge on many fronts to clear the park of patrons. Doing so multiple times in a short span is even more complicating. It just makes common sense that the "compliance rate" on subsequent evacuations would drop, thereby raising the risk level for everyone.

Serving as the staff meteorologist means that I provide the weather-related data necessary to allow festival staff to make an informed decision on how to respond. As mentioned, the decisions are not made lightly and all factors are considered. The situation is re-evaluated routinely so as to allow normal operations to resume as soon as the threat has abated. I am honored to be a part of the Memphis in May team and strive to provide the most accurate current weather information and forecasts possible so that the best decisions can be made in line with the goals stated above.

Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

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In charge of an outdoor event and interested in having a dedicated meteorologist monitoring the weather specifically for your event? Contact us!

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This week's weather & Atlantic hurricane season

MWN in May

It's been a crazy, busy month at MemphisWeather.net so I apologize for few blog posts than normal, but I'm grateful for the opportunities that seem to all come together in May! The primary activity for MWN this month has been Memphis in May. A big thank you to CEO Mr. Jim Holt and the operations staff for seeing the wisdom in having a meteorologist on-site when tends of thousands of people are packed into multiple outdoor events during the rain and storm season in Memphis! This was the 2nd year we've partnered and it was again a pleasure to work with great folks who put on a heck of a series in Tom Lee Park each year! They work their tails off literally around-the-clock for the benefit of the visitors. Somehow, despite a very wet month, the weather turned out pretty decent nearly every time the gates opened at the park, if you ignored the mud!

In addition, the Memphis Redbirds are well into their 2016 season and MWN is proud to once again be their Official Weather Partner, providing weather updates to operations staff throughout the season. We also officially signed on as Official Weather Partner for Levitt Shell for this year's Orion Free Summer Concert Series and will serve in an advisory and consulting capacity. I'm also proud to recognize Levitt Shell as the first sponsor of the brand-new MWN StormView Radar that was launched this month! If you haven't checked it out yet, please do! There is even a video tutorial on how to use the new features. Thanks Levitt Shell! And be on the lookout for StormView Radar on the video boards at the Shell if inclement weather threatens a concert!

Now on to the weather

An early summer pattern has set in as light southerly flow wraps around high pressure in the southeastern U.S. This results in humid and unstable air over the region, susceptible to passing upper level disturbances producing widely scattered thunderstorms. For most, today will be dry, though there is a small threat of a few showers late this evening as one of these disturbances moves across AR, producing a cluster of thunderstorms that weakens as it nears the metro after dark.

For Memorial Day, weak high pressure builds closer to the region from the north and a weak cold front slides to our east. As wind shifts to light northerly, slightly drier (less humid) air works its way into the region by afternoon and thunderstorm chances diminish even further. Temperatures should climb near the 90° mark under partly cloudy skies, making for great pool weather.

Precipitable water values (PW) show the amount of total moisture in the air over a particular location. Lower PW values (drier air, in green) will work their way into the Mid-South by Monday afternoon, pushing more humid air (purples) west.

Tuesday will be much the same with slightly less humid air, weak flow at the surface, and similar temperatures and sky condition to Monday with a very small afternoon thunderstorm chance. As a cold front moving out of the Plains gets a bit closer to the region on Wednesday, southerly flow is re-established and the air becomes more unstable and humid again. A few more thunderstorms are possible Wednesday, especially in the afternoon and west of the metro, though chances remain only near 30%.

Total precipitation projected by the GFS (American medium-range) model between 7am-7pm on Wednesday. An approaching frontal system will cause increased rain chances mainly to our west, though a few showers or thunderstorms will be possible in the Mid-South by Wednesday afternoon.

By Thursday, the cold front moves into the Mid-South. Scattered thunderstorms are expected as the front interacts with an unstable airmass. With a bit more wind support at the upper levels, a few storms could become strong to severe with high wind at the surface and perhaps some hail the main threats, in addition to heavy rain. The front creeps south into Friday, so rain and thunderstorm chances remain in the region to end the week. The elevated rain chances will also serve to keep afternoon highs in check with low to mid 80s expected Thursday and Friday.

Total precipitation projected by the GFS (American medium-range) model between 7pm Wednesday and 7pm Friday. As the cold front slowly inches through the Mid-South, scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms will be possible Thursday and Friday. Rainfall totals will likely be higher over western sections of the region.

The cold front stalls not far to our south next weekend it appears, so rain chances diminish but could still be possible, especially across north MS. Cooler air also filters into the region with highs next weekend in the lower 80s at best. It appears the below average temperatures (normal is 86-87° in early June) could continue into early the following week with a drier pattern setting up as well.

Surface temperatures at 7pm Saturday as projected by the GFS model. Note the cooler air (60s and 70s) over the eastern U.S. At this time, we are expecting highs near 80 on Saturday with mid-evening temperatures, as shown here, in the mid 70s.

A word on the tropics

Atlantic hurricane season officially starts on Wednesday, but Mother Nature again showed how the calendar means little. By the time June 1 rolls around, the next named storm will start with the letter "C" thanks to a surprise appearance by a very rare January hurricane in the eastern Atlantic (Alex) and an early bloomer in disorganized Bonnie, which made landfall today on the SC coast as a tropical depression (but received the name Bonnie on Friday as it reached tropical storm strength).

Late Sunday morning update on Tropical Depression Bonnie, after landfall on the central SC coast earlier in the day. Bonnie will slowly re-curve up the Carolina coastline for the next few days with heavy rain being the primary threat.

Officially, NOAA and the NWS predict a season "near normal" in the Atlantic Basin after a quieter than average last 3 years. The official prediction is shown below, which has a 70% likelihood of occuring. El Nino is dissipating and La Nina is becoming more likely during the peak of hurricane season, which tends to favor elevated Atlantic activity, though it is unknown how strong La Nina will get during hurricane season.

With an unprecedented 10 years (3,870 days to be exact) having gone by since the last major hurricane to make landfall in the U.S. (Wilma in late 2005), the NWS is preaching "It Only Takes One" to drive home the point that no matter how many storms are named, one landfall can cause a significant impact.

A lot has changed on the U.S. coastlines since 2005, including burgeoning populations and a new generation of residents and retirees that have never experienced a hurricane. Think about it - when Wilma made landfall in southwest Florida in October 2005, the iPhone and Twitter had not been invented and Facebook was less than 2 years old!

There is some concern this year that, due to warmer than average sea surface temperatures near coastal areas, any system that has favorable atmospheric conditions could strengthen as it approaches landfall, and indeed may form closer to land, providing for less lead time as residents and businesses in harm's way prepare. It will be an interesting season to watch play out.

Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

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Memphis in May starts this weekend - so of course it's going to rain!

Last year, the first weekend in May, and by association the Beale Street Music Festival, was blessed with amazing weather. But as you might expect from "Memphis in Mud," consecutive years would be taking it a bit too far! So, get those galoshes, rain boots, and ponchos ready (because umbrellas aren't allowed), and let's dig into the details of what to expect this weekend, whether you're headed downtown, to Arlington in April, or just having a spring garage sale!

Though the general pattern from Friday through Sunday is a wet one, there will definitely be some "lulls" as it won't rain the entire weekend. Hopefully this will provide some idea of when those might occur. A couple of "up-front" notes: severe weather chances are very low, so we don't expect any large hail, high wind, or tornadoes to strike a crowded outdoor event. However, rain will be heavy at times and lightning is also expected. We recommend you have a plan for what to do if you start hearing thunder - and standing under a lone tall tree ain't it.

Friday

The pleasant spring weather we've had today quickly gets inundated by Friday's lunch hour as low pressure forms over west TX, pulling a warm front north from the Deep South into the Mid-South. While the morning hours will be mainly dry, the afternoon will be mainly wet with periods of heavy rain possible, but minimal lightning.

The surface map for mid-day Friday shows a stationary front to our south as it gets ready to move north. Dark green is where highest rain chances are and the area to our west will expand east during the afternoon hours.

As the warm front approaches in the evening, some thunderstorms will also be likely and rain could continue deep into the overnight hours. Rainfall amounts Friday afternoon through early Saturday will likely be pretty close to an inch with much heavier amounts to our west. Again, severe weather is not expected. Temperatures Friday will top out in the upper 70s and remain mild (near 70) in the evening hours.

The "most likely" precipitation total map through midnight Friday night indicates 3/4" or more of rain is expected with the initial wave of precipitation Friday.  2-3" may fall across  parts of Arkansas.

Saturday

The daytime hours Saturday will probably see a break from the steady rain with just scattered showers or thunderstorms possible. Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised to see some fairly lengthy dry periods from morning through mid-afternoon. With the warm front to our north and the next cold front well to the west, there won't be a lot to trigger storm initiation outside of a weak passing upper level disturbance. With gusty southerly wind pushing temperatures to near 80 and very humid air in place, it won't take much to pop off a few thunderstorm cells though, so I'm not willing to call it a dry day.

By Saturday night, the low pressure center will be moving across the Missouri River Valley, dragging the cold front closer and rain and thunderstorm chances increase. If it stays fairly dry during the day, perhaps even with a peek of sunshine, instability will be pretty high, so lightning and thunder appears likely by evening. Severe weather chances should remain minimal with the main threats being a strong gust of wind or small hail, besides heavy rainfall. Evening temperatures will again be in the 70 degree range. Total rainfall Saturday and Saturday night could be another inch or so.

The surface map for Saturday early evening shows precipitation chances increasing again as a cold front approaches from the west. By Sunday morning, that front will be along the Mississippi River, marking an end to steady precipitation. Thunderstorms will also be possible as the front approaches Saturday night.

The "most likely" precipitation totals map for the period Saturday morning through the overnight hours Saturday night shows another 3/4" or so of rain will fall. 

Sunday

The cold front moves through Sunday morning. It's passage should end just about all rain chances, though a post-frontal trough could wrap around the low to our north and bring a shower or two. Overall, we believe chances are low and by noon we should start seeing some sunshine. The rest of the day looks downright pleasant with highs in the upper 70s to near 80 and a breeze with a northerly component whisking the humidity to the south.

Total precipitation forecast by the NWS through Sunday afternoon indicates at least 2" of rain is expected in the Memphis metro this weekend.

Overall, we advise keeping rain gear handy and remaining weather aware throughout the weekend. We'll be nowcasting for the entire metro throughout the weekend on our social media channels below with an emphasis on Music Fest. You'll also be able to find radar, live tweets, and more through our mobile apps for Android and iOS (links below). Stay safe and stay dry (if possible!).

Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

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Mid-week update on weekend severe weather potential

As posted yesterday, the weather conditions are not looking pleasant for the Memphis in May kickoff and Beale Street Music Festival. Well over 100,000 people are expected to attend the annual Music Fest and the threat of severe weather appears to be increasing.

The graphics above show the severe weather threat as highlighted by the Storm Prediction Center for Friday/Friday night in the top image and Saturday in the bottom. For Friday and Friday night, Memphis is right on the edge of a 30% probability of severe weather within 25 miles of any point (say, for example, Tom Lee Park...) and a 10% or greater probability of "significant" severe weather within 25 miles of that point. On Saturday, the day 4 outlook places us squarely in the middle of a 30%+ probability of severe weather within 25 miles of any point.

What this boils down to is this: many of the necessary ingredients for severe weather are coming together and there is a chance that we will see large hail, damaging winds, and possibly isolated tornadoes in the region. In addition, due to well-above-normal moisture content of the atmosphere, the threat of very heavy rain and flash flooding is also a definite possibility. Please take all of this into consideration as you plan your outdoor activities this weekend, especially Friday afternoon through Saturday, and have a game plan should severe weather strike.

Part of that game plan might include having severe weather watches and warnings delivered to you when they are issued! Sign up for MWN's FREE Weather Alerts notification system! You can get weather alerts delivered by e-mail for any of 6 metro counties, or if you are on Twitter, sign up for Shelby County weather alerts at @shelbyalerts.

Of course, you can also keep up with the latest forecast, radar, warnings, etc. with MemphisWeather.net on the web and MWN Mobile (http://pda.MemphisWeather.net) while you are away from your PC.

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Weather forecast for the Memphis in May Beale Street Music Festival

Since it's almost May, that must mean it's time for Memphis in May! And you don't have to be a rocket scientist (or a seasoned meteorologist) to know that if it's Beale Street Music Fest weekend, it's probably going to rain. For all those that have come to expect a "Puddle of Mudd" (and we don't mean the band) at Tom Lee Park, 2010 likely won't disappoint!

Unfortunately, after a respite from the severe weather conditions of last weekend, another potent springtime weather system looks to be taking shape for this weekend, and perhaps ALL weekend! High pressure during the mid-week timeframe will give way to a large trough of low pressure that will move towards the Birthplace of the Blues and Home of Rock and Roll by week's end. Abundant Gulf moisture will stream into the Bluff City on strong southerly wind Thursday and Friday, setting the stage (not the Sam's Town or Cellular South ones) for thunderstorms to break out sometime Friday, most likely by afternoon. Though computer models are still muddling through exactly how the weekend will play out, we have yet to see one that indicates dry conditions any day during the 3-day festival. It could be a very wet, perhaps stormy, Music Fest! But don't let that cause "Widespread Panic," just be prepared to get wet and have a great time!

We'll keep a close eye on it and post updates via this blog, Twitter, and Facebook throughout the week. For a complete forecast for the upcoming week, updated twice daily, visit MemphisWeather.net.

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