After a winter week, looking ahead at a milder, but wet week

Happy cold, but optimistic Sunday!

After a wintry week with snow, ice, and re-freezing roads, we're looking ahead at a sort-of "recovery" week on both the road and drought aspects. We've had a cold start today, but we're still on an upward path toward milder temperatures. Along that path, though, will be a very wet week.

A cold Sunday and then gradual warming early/mid week

After a(nother) #StupidCold day yesterday, today continues the trend of cold weather, but our highs stay above freezing and a ridge of high pressure keeping partly sunny skies in the area will help to improve neighborhood roads that have been struggling the past week. Sadly, lows tonight will be low enough to re-freeze areas that are wet and melted. But this leads into Monday's discussion. Southeasterly flow from the Gulf will bring in slightly warmer temps and moisture, which will lead to a few afternoon showers and a rainy night tomorrow. This will do a lot to help melt those roads that are still icy. 

Surface map for Monday at 6pm, with arrows showcasing southeasterly flow and the chance for PM showers. (NWS/WPC)

For those with concerns about freezing rain, by the time showers move to our area tomorrow, we'll be warm enough to not worry about that possibility. By Monday night, most roads should be washed out and ice-less as lows will be in the 40s and showers persist. Similar wet weather is expected for Tuesday and Wednesday with sporadic showers, but temperatures will be gradually warming each day as we return to near-normal levels (highs in the low 50s for Tuesday and near 60° for Wednesday!). The occasional thunderstorm is possible towards mid-week as upper-level disturbances bring more wet weather, but we'll be well below severe thresholds for the week. 

A continued wet pattern with some cooling for the late week

A cold front pushes through Wednesday night which will bring more scattered showers that night and Thursday. The front will lead into a gradual cooling pattern as we dip from highs near 60° on Thursday to lower highs in the 50s on Friday and Saturday. A few showers are possible on Friday, but these will not be as widespread as earlier in the week. Saturday also looks to be rainy and mild as the cold front stalls to our east. 

As the cold front stalls to our east, temps will be near-normal again towards the end of the week. Shown are Friday morning temperatures from the European ensemble. (WeatherBell) 

Thankfully, none of the rainy days this week will involve winter weather! We'll be on break this week in that regard, since temperatures will be in the 50s and near 60° for the middle part of the week and latter half. 

Flash flooding potential and looking at a dry February beginning

Now, due to each day this week featuring a fair bit of rainfall, flash flooding is the primary concern for this week. Totals by the end of the week could accumulate to 3 to 5 inches. 

From NOAA, rainfall totals for this week range from 3 to 5 inches for the metro. 

Flash flooding concerns will mainly be confined to localized, low-lying areas for us. Regardless, always remember to turn around if you see standing water, and don't drown! 

On a different note, unlike this week and the last, the beginning of February looks to be drier and warmer than average! It looks to be a nice break after this upcoming rainy week and the wintry MLK week. See below for the precipitation probability outlook. As forecasts are updated for the following week, stay tuned, and thanks for reading! 

Precipitation outlook for the end of January and beginning of February, showing odds of drier than normal weather for areas along and east of the Mississippi River. (NOAA/CPC)

Lei Naidoo

MWN Intern

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2023 Yearly Climate Review for Memphis, TN

Climate Recap

2023 will go into the history books as the fourth warmest year on record in Memphis with near average precipitation for the year. However, those overall statistics do now tell the entire story, particularly with respect to precipitation. Below is a summary of monthly temperature and precipitation data. On average, spring and summer were near to cooler than average. However, the cool season from fall to winter was much warmer than average. This resulted in an overall annual departure from normal of +1.7 degrees. There were 16 warm weather records set in 2023 and no cool temperature records.

On the precipitation side, with the exception of a dry May, precipitation ran above to well above average. The back half of the year, though, saw that surplus disappear, resulting in severe to extreme fall and early winter drought across the metro, and exceptional drought in north MS. In 2023, NWS-Memphis issued 372 Severe Thunderstorm Warnings, 83 Tornado Warnings, and 54 Flash Flood Warnings for their 5-county coverage area over the Mid-South. 

Precipitation accumulation graphic for 2023, showing total accumulation (green) versus average. (NOAA Regional Climate Centers)

Drought conditions as of December 26, 2023

Memphis International Airport, Memphis, TN

Temperature 

Average temperature: 65.1 degrees (1.7 degrees above average) 

Average high temperature: 74.5 degrees (1.5 degrees above average) 

Average low temperature: 55.8 degrees (2.0 degrees above average) 

Warmest temperature: 102 degrees (August 25-26) 

Days that reached 100 degrees for a high: 3

Coolest temperature: 25 degrees (January 31, February 1, March 19-20) 

Days that dropped below 25 degrees for a low: 0

Heating Degrees Days: 2250 (625 below average)

Cooling Degree Days: 2426 (112 above average) 

Records set or tied: Record highs: Feb. 22 (77), April 4 (87 - tied), August 24 (100), August 25 (102), October 24 (86), November 6 (81), November 7 (83), November 8 (84).

Record warm lows: April 4 (68 - tied), June 29 (81 - tied), July 1 (81), August 22 (80 - tied), August 23 (81), August 25 (80), August 26 (80), October 24 (69). No low temperature records were set in 2023.

Comments: January was the 11th warmest on record. February was the 9th warmest on average. December was the 16th warmest on record. December 2022-February 2023 (meteorological winter) was the 7th warmest on record (48.2 degrees). The period September 1-December 31 was the 6th warmest on record. The year 2023 was the 4th warmest on record.

Precipitation 

Yearly total: 55.48" (0.54" below average) 

Days with measurable precipitation: 113 (1.6 days above average) 

Wettest Day: 4.53" (July 21)

Snowfall: 0.2" (2.25" below average)

Records set or tied: June 16 (1.75"), July 21 (4.53").

Comments: January was the 14th wettest on record. March was the 19th wettest on record. July was the 4th wettest on record. The period September 1-December 31 was the 13th driest on record.

Miscellaneous 

Peak wind: Northwest/69 mph (July 5) 

Average wind: 7.5 mph 

Average relative humidity: 67%

Average sky cover: 52%

 Click here for a daily statistical recap for Memphis International Airport.

 

MemphisWeather.net Headquarters, Bartlett, TN

Temperature 

Average temperature: 62.9 degrees 

Average high temperature: 74.6 degrees 

Average low temperature: 53.2 degrees 

Warmest temperature: 99.9 degrees (July 1) 

Days that reached 100 degrees (rounded) for a high: 4

Coolest temperature: 22.4 degrees (December 19) 

Comments: None

Precipitation 

Yearly total: 60.34" (automated rain gauge), 58.92" (CoCoRaHS rain gauge) 

Days with measurable precipitation: 118

Wettest date: 3.78" (January 3) 

Snowfall: 0.3"

Comments: None

Miscellaneous 

Peak wind: Northwest/47 mph (June 2nd)

Average relative humidity: 73% 

Average barometric pressure: 30.03 in.

Comments: None

Click here for a daily statistical recap for Bartlett, TN.

 

MWN Forecast Accuracy

Average temperature error: 2.06 degrees 

Forecast temperatures within 2 degrees of actual: 67% 

Average dewpoint error: 2.23 degrees 

Forecast dewpoints within 2 degrees of actual: 66% 

MWN's forecasts extend out five periods (2.5 days, or roughly 60 hours). Historical accuracy statistics can be found here.

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Winter storm wrap-up, colder than #StupidCold, and one more shot at winter precip

Quick blog this evening... 

We made it through the MLK winter storm with a pretty solid 4-6" thick blanket over the area (some more, some less). The sunshine returned today and started to work its magic on the major streets, but those side streets are still a mess. Fortunately not a sheet of ice, so it could be a lot worse! I found traction to be decent if you don't go too fast!

Estimated and preliminary snowfall totals from this week's storm. Click here for a full list of reports. (NWS-Memphis)

Overnight, temperatures drop WAY into the single digits, and with a very light breeze, wind chills will be below zero. This is #BrutalCold territory and all precautions should be taken, including dripping faucets on exterior walls, wrapping pipes that are subject to freeze, and leaving those cabinet doors open to allow heat around the pipes.

But don't go overboard with the power consumption! MLGW is asking everyone to conserve, as tomorrow morning will likely set a wintertime record for energy use and they don't want to resort to brown-outs or black-outs. If you can throw an extra blanket on and drop the thermostat a degree or two, every little bit helps.

Starting immediately: #MLGW customers are asked to cooperate in voluntarily reducing power usage to avoid impacts to the entire TVA system until further notice. #MLGWNews pic.twitter.com/as667kQANe

— MLGW (@MLGW) January 16, 2024

Looking ahead, more sunshine on Wednesday, and "warmer" temperatures nearing the freezing point should really help with snowmelt. It's won't clear a side street with 6" of snow on it, but it will make a lot of areas much more manageable. (There was melting going on today with temps in the mid teens, as long as the area had direct sun exposure.)

After Wednesday though, the melting might hit the pause button just for a bit as another round of very light precipitation moves in Thursday. Temperatures will be below freezing until probably at least lunchtime, and honestly may not get much above that in the afternoon. That means we're expecting a light glaze of ice on Thursday. This won't be enough to bring down tree branches and power lines (so power loss due to those causes is not expected), but it could be enough to slicken up still-contaminated roadways and maybe some bridges and overpasses. All told, it should be less than one-tenth of an inch, but a cold bridge doesn't need much help to become slippery! We'll have more details on this event, including temperature trends, which are the biggest unknown right now, on our social media feeds leading up to Thursday.

The NAM3 model forecast radar for 8am-8pm Thursday, showing light freezing rain, then rain, move through the metro. This is still early for details, but it gives you an idea what to expect. (WeatherBell)

As we head into the weekend (seems like we've been on one for days now...), the front that brings the light icing also brings one more shot of Arctic air. Sunshine will be prevalent, but temps drop back to the 20s Friday, near 10 degrees Saturday morning and just above 20 on Saturday, before finally rebounding from the teens Sunday morning back above freezing Sunday afternoon. And then there is next week - 50s to 60 degrees for highs as #StupidCold finally gets kicked to the curb!

Outlook for temperatures (versus normal) for next week (January 22-26). By then, we may all be done with sub-freezing temperatures! (NOAA/CPC)

Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

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MLK Day Winter Storm Q&A (with lots of pictures and GIFS)

I've written many a blog post ahead of winter storms over the years. The format that seems to work best is Q&A style, because I know you have questions. So herein I will try and provide answers - some to the point, some with more detail. Keep in mind this is AS OF SATURDAY MORNING. The forecast can (and probably will) change, or at least be refined. Buckle up!

Q: Is it really gonna snow?

A: Yes, really.

Q: When will it start and end?

A: Timing has been a chief concern for the past few days. Models have struggled. But they are getting better and I have higher confidence now. A Winter Storm Warning is in effect from Sunday at noon through Tuesday at 6am. I believe we could see some flurries (or maybe freezing drizzle) by late afternoon Sunday. By early to mid evening, snow becomes likely and continues much of the night and into Monday. I would expect it to taper off by mid-afternoon Monday, but flurries or light snow could linger through the evening. We're looking at 18- 24 hours of precipitation. 

Q: How much are we going to get?

A: This is the million dollar question and the one everyone cares about. I believe Sunday night's snow will be fairly uniform and light, but still with accumulation potential. On Monday, a band (or bands) of moderate to perhaps heavy snow sets up within an area of lighter snow. This adds complication to the totals because we don't know exactly where that will happen. However, recent data suggests this could be close to or south of I-40. Within that band, there is strong potential for 5-7" of snow. Outside of that sweet spot, I still think 3-4" is going to be the average. So to put an overall range on it, 3-7" is my call as of 11am Saturday. Below is what the NWS has as of right now - we're not too different.

Q: What sort of boom and bust potential is there? 

A: Great question, glad you asked! On the low end, I think everyone in the 8-county MWN coverage area is likely to see at least 2", even if the storm underperforms. If that's all you get, you'll have to just shake it off. On the flip side, there is a low chance somewhere within a heavy band that 8" or more could fall.  

(Warning: science lesson about to break out!) Part of the uncertainty in totals has to do with what we call the "snow to liquid ratio" (SLR), which is how much snow occurs given a certain amount of precipitation in liquid form. Typically, an inch of liquid yields 10" of snow, or a 10:1 ratio. When it is very cold with lower humidity, that ratio goes up. So an inch of liquid may be 15" of snow (15:1). That type of snow is "dry" and doesn't pack well (i.e. no snowball fights and clear it with a leaf blower). I think we'll end up with a drier snow than typical for this area, but not Minneapolis dry. It's still one of the unknowns though. Sorry for the weather nerdy interruption - back to the Q&A.

Q: Any surprises, like rain or ice mixing in?

A: Doubtful. Although, there are hints that very light precipitation at onset late Sunday afternoon could be freezing drizzle. It's not a major concern for me. 

Q: How will the roads be Monday / Tuesday / in February?

A: The cold air that moves over us in the coming week is no joke. It'll be moving beyond #StupidCold to #DangerousCold for some folks. On Monday, I wouldn't recommend travel unless necessary, as we'll be in a Winter Storm Warning and there will be accumulation actively occurring. (Yes, I know the Grizzlies play a big MLK Day game. We don't need fans added to the injury list, tbh.) 

Fortunately, rain doesn't preface this event, so roads will be treated starting today and that will help. But some of those treatments don't work as well when temps get into the mid teens or colder, like they will Monday morning and definitely Tuesday morning. 

As for Tuesday, it's kind of wait and see, but if 3-4" or more falls and traffic is light Monday (likely, due to snow falling and the holiday), Tuesday morning may not be much better. The only thing that might help a little is if the snow is dusty and, with some wind blowing, main streets might fare a bit better. A hard freeze Monday night with no traffic will likely mean a dicey Tuesday morning though. Sunshine on Tuesday, despite bitterly cold temperatures could help with primary roads. I think odds are above even that Tuesday is a "snow day" though too. (That one is for you, teachers!) By February, we should be fine. 😉

Q: I have a flight...

A: Are you going to the Bahamas? Make every effort, and add a ticket for me.

So the airport is as equipped as any place to handle winter weather. They have more snow removal equipment than most southern cities and FedEx won't slow down (much). But getting there could be "tough sledding" (see questions above). The best answer is check with your airline. There will probably be cancellations, but not necessarily because the airport is "closed." It won't close. But airlines don't like getting planes stuck or crews unable to fly due to flight rules, so many times they proactively cancel.

Q: How about the #StupidCold this week? 

A: Snow is fun and generally not super dangerous. This cold will NOT be. After today, we likely won't get back above freezing until Thursday afternoon. In the meantime, temperatures will be in the teens to 20s Sunday, Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. We'll drop into the single digits Wednesday morning. Wind chills will be dangerous, even with just a 10-15 mph wind. 

Forecast wind chills Tuesday and Wednesday mornings

Q: Will my pipes burst?

A: If your pipes have had issues when it got brutally cold just before Christmas in 2022 or in mid-February 2021, you might be at risk again. This week will be a "4-P Week." Take care of your people (and others if able), your pets (indoors or a warm place), your pipes, and your plants. Keep the faucets dripping and cabinets open on exterior walls where there are pipes.

Q: How about the electrical grid?

A:  Due to the prolonged cold, and the fact that it will affect a large area in the southeast, energy load will be well above average. I don't have to remind you of Christmas 2022 when the load ended up resulting in many issues. MLGW has already indicated that they are in much better shape than 2022, but that they will request conservation of utilities. Scattered power outages seem possible, although it won't be as bad as if ice were pulling down trees and lines. Heavy snow could cause some issues, as might excessive load. Be prepared just in case and conserve where able.

Q: What's this I am hearing about Thursday? Are we going to do this all over again??

A: I'm not talking about it just yet, other than to say "do it all over again" is not in the cards. A light winter precip event is possible, and the cold will be reinforced for a couple days behind it. Let's get through this one first.

Q: When will it be 70 degrees and sunny again?

A: March. 

Final word: This could be a dangerous storm for many in our community. While we had a little fun with this (and you probably will enjoy it especially if you have kids), please make sure you read closely the safety tips and other advice. Take care of your neighbors and be smart about your choices. Most importantly, prepare for the brutal cold. It'll be a week to ten days of well below average temperatures.

Erik Proseus

MWN Meteorologist

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Follow MWN on Facebook and Twitter for routine updates and the latest info!
Complete MWN Forecast: MemphisWeather.net on the mobile web or via the MWN mobile app
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Winter has arrived - very active weather week ahead

December warmth is long gone now and Mother Nature is reminding us it is indeed the season of winter. We're also going to start making a dent in the rainfall deficit of the past few months in the coming week or so. I sent the post below on social media yesterday; it's what we in meteorology call a "progressive pattern" (nothing to do with politics).

 

Weekend chill

Last night, the first in a series of low pressure systems to affect the region moved by to our south. We got about half an inch of rainfall late afternoon into the overnight. Today, we're left with a cold, clammy, damp but not precipitating, gray winter day. Temperatures will struggle to reach the mid 40s this afternoon with a westerly breeze. Sprinkles are possible this evening, but then it appears the sun will return by midday tomorrow. That will help reduce the chill a bit, though we still likely won't hit 50 degrees on Sunday, which is the average high for this time of year. At least most of the weekend is dry.

Early week rain and thunderstorms

The next in the series of low pressure centers moves through Monday night into early Tuesday. Rain develops ahead of that weather-maker late Monday afternoon. A very wet Monday night is expected as wind picks up. Even a few thunderstorms are possible from this dynamic system! While not expected here, severe storms are likely to our south, along the Gulf Coast and north into central MS, as high wind and a few tornadoes are possible. We'll get 1-2" of rain as showers continue through Tuesday. 

The NBM model forecast for rainfall amounts from our early week weather system. (WeatherBell)

The biggest impact from this system though, apart from the heavy rain, will be the wind. Gusts Monday night will approach 30-35 mph and could reach 40 mph on Tuesday! If you do not yet have your outdoor holiday decor down, this weekend is the time! Temperatures on Monday and Tuesday will reach the low 50s. No threat for winter weather with this system.

NWS forecast probabilities of seeing wind gusts of 40 mph on Tuesday.

Mid-week lull

As wind calms down a bit heading into mid-week, we should be set for a couple of nice days. Sunshine returns Wednesday, though it will be cool and still a little breezy. Look for lows in the upper 20s and highs in the upper half of the 40s. Thursday we can expect high clouds to start moving in ahead of the next wave of weather, but the day should be dry with temperatures rebounding into the mid 50s.

Another wet wind-maker, then Arctic blast

Yet another strong low pressure system will affect the region starting Thursday night and continuing through Friday. This one will pass by to our west, putting the Mid-South in a "warm sector" airmass on Friday. Expect additional rain, some of it heavy, possibly with a few thunderstorms, and strong southerly wind gusts which could once again easily top 30-35 mph on Friday. Looks like another bad day to have car line duty, teachers! There are still details to work out on the track of that system, but there is some model data suggesting we should watch Friday night pretty closely for the timing of departing moisture and arriving cold air.

After Friday's system, a large Arctic high pressure system that dives through the Plains midweek reaches the Mid-South in time for next weekend. After Friday night, we should be dry, but it likely won't be a weekend you want to spend outdoors. We could be entering #StupidCold territory. High temperatures will probably not get out of the 30s, while overnight lows will drop well into the 20s with maybe some teens hanging out in some areas (and I'm not talking about juvenile delinquents!). 

Temperature anomaly (departure from average) map for Sunday, January 14. Nearly the entire country is expected to be colder than average, much of it well below, according to the European model ensemble data. (WeatherBell)

That cold air appears to have staying power, so we'll be watching for any systems that may try to sneak through it, but that would be the week after next, so for now we'll stick to pattern recognition and bet on the coldest air of the season so far. Stay tuned, and dig out those heavy coats!

Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

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Follow MWN on Facebook and Twitter for routine updates and the latest info!
Complete MWN Forecast: MemphisWeather.net on the mobile web or via the MWN mobile app
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MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador

Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder

December 2023 Climate Report for Memphis, TN

December Climate Recap

The month of December was warmer than normal, averaging over 4 degrees above normal. The month started with highs in the 60's, which rose to the low 70's on the 9th, but a cold front moved in and low temperatures dropped to the 20's the following night. Temperatures warmed back to the mid 60's by mid-month, cooling slightly for a few days, then back up to the mid to upper 60's in the lead-up to Christmas. Christmas Day high temperatures were near 60. Temps cooled off the next few days, with the high on the 29th only near 40. By New Year's Eve, highs were near 60 once again.

Departure from normal temperatures for December for the Lower 48 states

Below normal precipitation trends continued in December with only 2.60 inches of rain falling, which is almost 3 inches below the average for December of 5.49 inches. The ongoing drought was exacerbated by the lack of rainfall with much of north Mississippi worsening to exceptional drought status and severe to extreme drought in place for the remainder of the area. The image below highlights the drought conditions as of December 26th, while the second shows the downward trend over the course of the month. Thunderstorms occurred on the 9th with large hail, ranging from quarter to softball size, reported across the northern MS counties in the greater Memphis metro. Severe Thunderstorm Warnings and one Tornado Warning were issued by NWS Memphis that afternoon. 

Drought conditions as of December 26, 2023

Change in drought conditions from November 28 to December 26, 2023

Memphis International Airport, Memphis, TN

Temperature 

Average temperature: 49.0 degrees (4.2 degrees above average) 

Average high temperature: 58.8 degrees (5.4 degrees above average) 

Average low temperature: 39.1 degrees (2.9 degrees above average) 

Warmest temperature: 73 degrees (9th) 

Coolest temperature: 29 degrees (11th & 19th) 

Heating Degrees Days: 487 (141 below average)

Cooling Degree Days: 0 (2 below average) 

Records set or tied: None

Comments: The average high temperature of 58.8 degrees was 7th warmest on record.

Precipitation 

Monthly total: 2.60" (2.89" below average) 

Days with measurable precipitation: 7 (3.2 days below average) 

Wettest 24-hour period: 0.98" (11/30-12/1) 

Snowfall: None (0.2" below average)

Records set or tied: None

Comments: None

Miscellaneous 

Peak wind: Southwest/39 mph (9th) 

Average wind: 7.4 mph 

Average relative humidity: 64%

Average sky cover: 52%

 Click here for a daily statistical recap for Memphis International Airport.

 

MemphisWeather.net Headquarters, Bartlett, TN

Temperature 

Average temperature: 46.5 degrees 

Average high temperature: 56.9 degrees 

Average low temperature: 36.3 degrees 

Warmest temperature: 71.9 degrees (9th) 

Coolest temperature: 22.4 degrees (19th) 

Comments: None

Precipitation 

Monthly total: 2.12" (automated rain gauge), 2.14" (CoCoRaHS rain gauge) 

Days with measurable precipitation: 8

Wettest date: 0.82" (25th) (via automated gauge) 

Snowfall: None

Comments: None

Miscellaneous 

Peak wind: South/27 mph (16th)

Average relative humidity: 71% 

Average barometric pressure: 30.15 in.

Comments: None

Click here for a daily statistical recap for Bartlett, TN.

 

MWN Forecast Accuracy

Average temperature error: 2.17 degrees 

Forecast temperatures within 2 degrees of actual: 63% 

Average dewpoint error: 1.96 degrees 

Forecast dewpoints within 2 degrees of actual: 68% 

MWN's forecasts extend out five periods (2.5 days, or roughly 60 hours). Historical accuracy statistics can be found here.

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Follow MWN on Facebook and Twitter for routine updates and the latest info!
Complete MWN Forecast: MemphisWeather.net on the mobile web or via the MWN mobile app
Download our iPhone or Android apps, featuring StormWatch+ severe weather alerts!

MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador

Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder