Ice Impact Index - an experimental product from NWS-Memphis

A new experimental ice index will be used at 10 NWS offices in Missouri, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Texas and Tennessee this winter. The Scaled Predictive Ice Storm Aftermath Index (SPIA Index, or just "Ice Impact Index"), which will assign a number from 1-5 to a forecast ice event, will gauge potential damage due to ice accumulations on exposed electric utility systems. The index takes into account forecasted ice accumulations and wind speeds - the higher the index, the greater the damage potential from icing.  The target audience in emergency management officials, utility companies, and the public.

The Ice Impact Index will be at its highest when ice accumulations are large and winds gusts are high. These conditions place a huge stress on utility systems and can result in widespread, prolonged power outages. This index will assist in preparation for dangerous ice storms, but hopefully we will not have to use it much this winter!  Below is the index and expected impacts from each level:

Index	Utility Damage and Impact Description
1	Some local utility interruptions possible...typically lasting a few hours.
2	Scattered utility interruptions possible...typically lasting less than 12 hours.
3	Numerous utility interruptions possible...lasting up to 5 days. Damage to some main feeder lines possible.
4	Prolonged and widespread utility interruptions. Damage to many main feeder lines possible. Utility outages lasting up to 10 days possible.
5	Catastrophic damage to exposed utility systems possible. Outages lasting several weeks possible in some areas.

Here is a graphic showing what ice accumulation and wind speed forecasts are necessary to produce each Ice Index Impact level:

The Ice Impact Index will be issued separately from any Ice Storm Warnings, Freezing Rain Advisories, and other NWS "watch, warning, advisory" products.

For more details on the Ice Impact Index, visit this page on the NWS-Memphis website.  The NWS' official Product Description Document can be found here.  Participating offices include: Tulsa, OK; Little Rock; Memphis; Nashville; Norman (Oklahoma City); Jackson, MS; Springfield, MO; Pleasant Hill, MO; St. Louis, MO; and Paducah, KY.

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More on how the government shutdown is affecting the NWS

Additional information is becoming available regarding the scope of the shutdown impacts to the public-sector weather community. None of the info in this update comes from the Memphis NWS office and none of it runs counter to the statements made in our previous post on impacts to the NWS (which I encourage you to read if you haven't), just some additional details.

According to blogs posted by the Capital Weather Gang, who I have followed for some time and who do a great job providing insight to the weather enterprise, and Dr. J. Marshall Shepherd, President of the American Meteorological Society, there are numerous effects being felt at weather offices across the nation.

The primary effect, which we have confirmed from multiple sources, is that NWS employees are working for the "promise of pay." In other words, their paychecks for October are delayed until a new appropriations bill is signed or a continuing resolution is passed. In fact, NWS employees will receive a partial paycheck in the coming days for time worked through September 30, but after that they must wait until their funding is voted on to get their next paycheck. On top of working for the "promise of pay," these dedicated employees are doing things like hiking to work through snow drifts measured in feet (or not leaving the office altogether) in South Dakota in order to make sure their job duties are carried out.

NWS office in Rapid City after a mega-dumping of snow and blizzard conditions over the weekend. Image courtesy NWS-Rapid City.

In addition, public outreach has ceased, preventative maintenance has slowed or stopped (only emergency repairs are made), the main public source of historical weather and climate data is not accessible due to the shutdown of web servers at the National Climatic Data Center, and damage surveys are disallowed other than by special exception (the Wayne, NE EF-4 late last week is an example). We won't go into detail here, but Dr. Shepherd digs deeper into the possible long-term effects of the shutdown, especially if it drags on, in his blog linked above.

The typical stereotype of the government worker is not necessarily a good one.  But given the anecdotes above, and knowing many NWS meteorologists and staff personally, I dare anyone to find a more dedicated, hard-working, and under-appreciated group of public servants. Their overall budget is minuscule compared to many behemoth agencies. Yet most of them work in a field they truly love, with service to the community on the forefront of their minds. Their job is to protect life and property from elements that are beyond anyone's control and they are the best in the world at it!

References:

Unpaid Rapid City NWS staff slept at the office as blizzard totals hit 58 inches, MPR News15 ways the Federal shutdown is hampering the National Weather Service, Capital Weather Gang blog
Implications of the "Shutdown" on the Weather Community and Beyond, Dr. J. Marshall Shepherd
"No clocking out during storms – and no pay for weather forecasters," Omaha World-Herald

--Erik Proseus, Meteorologist, MemphisWeather.net

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How the government "slimdown" is affecting your local NWS office

If you have visited any of several NOAA-related websites since the partial government shutdown (or "slimdown") took effect on October 1, you probably recognize the image above.  Reports indicate that approximately half of the employees of the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have been furloughed, though about 6,600 remain on the job, most of those in, and in support of, more than 120 local National Weather Service (NWS) forecast offices across the country. According to the article above, the NWS "is required to continue functioning because its work can identify 'imminent threats to protect life and property.'"  In fact, the shutdown of many NOAA-based websites has not affected weather forecast office sites or any other page in the weather.gov domain.

Knowing this, and given that the Memphis NWS office promptly and accurately warned of a tornadic storm on Saturday evening in northwest Tennessee, I contacted Jim Belles, Meteorologist-in-Charge at NWS-Memphis, to find out how the shutdown is affecting the local forecast offices. Belles indicated that their office remains fully staffed, providing their usual suite of products - from critical Tornado Warnings to useful daily forecasts to the more mundane, but no less important, daily climate data.

Belles iterated more than once that their mission to "protect life and property" has not been compromised and that that remains their core focus.  Asked about a few specific duties and responsibilities, he dutifully went back to the mission statement and, in a nutshell, said it is "business as usual" for job functions that are directly related to the mission.  The public should not be concerned about a lack of essential services from their local NWS office.  The one supplemental service that has had to be postponed, according to Belles, is SKYWARN storm spotter training sessions that are scheduled during the shutdown. Those classes will have to be re-scheduled when the NWS has a budget with which to operate.

I can also report that the forecast models that are run on NWS supercomputers continue to churn out terabytes of forecast data daily, Doppler radars continue to scan the skies, Hurricane Hunter aircraft flew into Tropical Storm Karen, and weather balloons are still launched twice daily around the nation, even during the shutdown. In other words, the public and private sectors are getting the necessary information to continue disseminating weather information and forecasts to the nation.

So, Mid-Southerners, rest assured that no matter how long the budget battle drags on, the NWS will continue to provide services that will keep us safe and informed, in good weather and bad.

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UPDATE #1 - Oct 10, 2013 - A source at the National Weather Service (not Belles) has confirmed that all NWS employee travel to the annual National Weather Association (NWA) meeting in Charleston, SC has been cancelled.  The NWA meeting, in particular, is a excellent time of education and renewal for the operational meteorologists and others that attend.  For many others who attend, such as broadcasters, private sector meteorologists, etc., NWS meteorologists' presentations often provide exceptional post-event research on weather events that result in better forecasts from the entire sector. I only hope that many of their presentations are able to be given via webinar so that others may still benefit.

--Erik Proseus, Meteorologist, MemphisWeather.net

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National Hurricane Center changes definition of Hurricane Warning in wake of Sandy

As first reported by AccuWeather, just 5 days after the end of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season and a little over a month after "Post-Tropical Cyclone" (aka, Hurricane) Sandy washed ashore in New Jersey with nary a Hurricane Warning to be found, the National Hurricane Center has re-defined the warning that should have been issued.

This move, while not totally unexpected and certainly in the best interest of their vast customer base, was perhaps unprecedented in terms of how quickly it was made.  Typically, changes to National Weather Service products, watches, and warnings go through a lengthy trial process with suitable time for customer and user feedback, before the final decision is made to make the change.

In this case, I believe (and apparently so did the Hurricane Center) that the uproar surrounding a lack of warnings from the national center as "Superstorm Sandy" came ashore as likely the second-costliest Atlantic hurricane ever and deadliest since Katrina in 2005, was sufficient enough "customer feedback" to press forward with the change, effective immediately.  Below are the previous and new definitions [emphasis added where changes were made]:

Hurricane Warning - old definition:

An announcement that hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or higher) are expected somewhere within the specified area. Because hurricane preparedness activities become difficult once winds reach tropical storm force, the hurricane warning is issued 36 hours in advance of the anticipated onset of tropical-storm-force winds.

Hurricane Warning - new definition:

An announcement that sustained winds of 74 mph or higher are expected somewhere within the specified area in association with a tropical, sub-tropical, or post-tropical cyclone. Because hurricane preparedness activities become difficult once winds reach tropical storm force, the warning is issued 36 hours in advance of the anticipated onset of tropical-storm-force winds. The warning can remain in effect when dangerously high water or a combination of dangerously high water and waves continue, even though winds may be less than hurricane force.

It was a shame that the amazing track and intensity forecast provided by the Hurricane Center forecasters had to be overshadowed by the decision to leave warning the public to local NWS offices due to the straight-jacket they were put in by an inflexible process.  It is possible, if not likely, that lives were lost as as result and apparently the Hurricane Center felt that Hurricane Warnings should have been issued for Sandy in their Monday morning quarterbacking sessions.  However, I for one am glad to see this swift and decisive change that will enable the Hurricane Center to more accurately inform those in the path of the next "post-tropical cyclone."

UPDATED: Wednesday, December 5, 8:40pm

Well, there goes the "swiftness" of the decision to change the definition of a Hurricane Warning.

In an e-mail statement this afternoon, NWS spokesperson Chris Vaccaro indicates:

A proposal was raised during the NOAA Hurricane Conference last week for NWS to have the option to issue hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings for post-tropical cyclones that threaten life and property.  This is one step in the process required before any proposed change to operational products becomes final. As part of our review of the 2012 hurricane season, including the Sandy service assessment, we will review all policies and changes through the existing and established process.

So, did the original statement provided by NHC Science and Operations Officer get misinterpreted by AccuWeather, or did the NHC representative mis-speak?  Either way, it still looks like the Hurricane Center is on the right track.  At least we can only hope...

Special thanks to Nate Johnson (@nsj on Twitter) who provided the updated information.

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A note on National Weather Service operations under a government shutdown scenario

For many of you, it may not be the first agency that comes to mind when a government shutdown is discussed. But for some, especially those who are under a risk of severe weather during the potential shutdown, the National Weather Service (NWS), under the Department of Commerce's National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), is near the top of the list of "operations that need to continue to function."

The mission of the NWS (quoted from their website - www.weather.gov) is this:
The National Weather Service (NWS) provides weather, hydrologic, and climate forecasts and warnings for the United States, its territories, adjacent waters and ocean areas, for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the national economy. NWS data and products form a national information database and infrastructure which can be used by other governmental agencies, the private sector, the public, and the global community.  (emphasis added by the author)

Due to the "protection of life and property" clause in that mission statement, there is no reason to wonder whether a government shutdown will affect the ability of your local NWS office to issue timely forecasts, watches, warnings, or other hazardous weather products.  All mission-critical activities at the NWS will continue to operate during a government shutdown, should one occur.  The NWS falls into the same category as the military, FBI, air traffic controllers, prison guard, etc.  Their work is required to maintain the safety and well-being of the general public.  In fact, in the document referenced below (second link, page 8), the first item stated that shall be maintained during a lapse in FY11 appropriations is "weather forecasting and alerts."

So, IF Congress cannot reach a budget settlement to get them through the remainder of the fiscal year prior to midnight tonight, don't worry about whether Severe Thunderstorm Warnings will be issued or whether radars and radios will continue to operate or the computer models will continue to churn out impressive amounts of data hourly.  They will, and the public will continue to receive the same exceptional levels of service they have become accustomed to from the foremost authorities on weather and climate in the world.

For more information:
Agencies scramble to define critical functions as shutdown looms - NextGov.gov

Plan for Orderly Shutdown Due to Lapse of Congressional Appropriations - Dept. of Commerce (very detailed)


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