March 2011 Climate Data and MWN Forecast accuracy

Memphis International Airport, Memphis, TN
Overall, March was slightly warmer than average and also a little drier than average in Memphis. As winter transitioned to spring, there were plenty of chilly mornings, but also some very warm afternoons that were squeezed into a narrow timespan - for instance, a low of 35 degrees on the 16th was followed by a high of 78 degrees the next day.

The average March temperature was 54.2 degrees, which was 0.7 degrees above normal. The average high temperature was 63.0 degrees and the average low was 45.5. The temperature only dropped below freezing one time, when it reached 31 on the 11th. The average last freeze for Memphis is March 24th, so the growing season has started nearly two weeks early this year. The highest temperature for the month was 82 degrees on the 20th.

Precipitation for the month of March totaled 4.95", which was 0.63" below the normal of 5.58" (March is, on average, one of the wetter months in Memphis). There were 12 days with measurable rainfall and the maximum 24-hour total was 1.42" on the 5th. The peak wind gust was 43 mph on March 213st with an average wind speed for the month of 9.5 mph. Click here for a daily statistical recap for Memphis International for March.

National Temperature Analysis
The image below shows the average high and low temperature for the month for the entire nation, as well as the departure from normal (anomaly - right side panels). High temperatures were well above normal in the Desert Southwest and Southern Plains and well below normal in the Northern Plains and West Coast areas.  Low temperatures were above normal for much of the nation, especially the Rocky Mountains, and a little below normal over the Northern Plains.

Average high/low temps and anomalies for March 2011

Bartlett, TN
The average temperature for March at the WXLIVE! station in north Bartlett was 53.6 degrees with a maximum of 85.7 on the 20th and a minimum of 26.1 degrees on the 11th. Because of it's location on the edge of the suburbs, this station is not affected by the urban heat island and therefore saw the low temperature drop below freezing on 5 days in March.

March precipitation ended below normal with a total of 4.77". A co-located manual gauge used for the CoCoRaHS program measured 5.04". The peak wind gust was 30 mph on the 17th. Average relative humidity was 67%. Click here for a daily recap on MemphisWeather.net.

MWN Forecast Accuracy
For the month of March, the average temperature error in all MWN temperature forecasts was 2.90 degrees, lower than all compared computer models, including the National Weather Service, and the only source under 3.0 degrees error. Over 50% of the MWN temperature forecasts for the month were within 2 degrees of the actual temperature. MWN's forecasts extend out five periods (or 2.5 days). For dewpoint accuracy, the MWN forecast beat all data sources, averaging 2.86 degrees error and falling within 2 degrees of the actual dewpoint 58% of the time. Detailed accuracy statistics can be found here.

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An open letter to MemphisWeather.net users regarding today's severe weather coverage

Greetings,

Earlier today, we were cruising along providing our 3500+ social media followers/fans with regular updates as Tornado Warnings were issued for the metro area around noon. A severe line of storms had crossed through most of Shelby, Desoto, and Tipton Counties and was heading into Fayette County when the power flashed, then went completely out, at Cirrus Weather Solutions in Bartlett.  We weren't the only ones. MLGW reported a peak of 68,000 customers without power just after the storm.

Last StormView Radar image provided just after the power loss at MWN.

While we have backup facilities in place to cover short duration outages without significant impact to our users, this particular outage turned out to be just over 4 hours long, as power was restored in great fashion by MLGW about 4:20pm.  There were still about 50,000 without power at that time, so we were in the first 30% of customers to be restored.  We can't thank the utility crews and operations folks at MLGW enough for their dedication to restoral of service throughout the Memphis area. They are working around the clock and we appreciate it!

Cirrus Weather Solutions' servers feed data to our users, including current conditions from Bartlett, StormView Radar, severe weather alerts to @shelbyalerts on Twitter and via e-mail to hundreds of subscribers, and the severe weather warning map.  This data is displayed on MemphisWeather.net, the MWN iPhone and Android apps, MWN Mobile, and also JacksonWeather.net.  In addition, real-time updates from MWN staff to Facebook and Twitter followers originate from our home office and we are also closely monitoring weather data as it arrives to provide you with the latest updates. So, when the power goes out for more than a few minutes, we are severely handicapped. Smartphone updates only go so far!

While limited updates continued via smartphone to Facebook and Twitter, we took measures to update MWN and our users on our status and limited capabilities. Within 15 minutes of power restoral, all of our data feeds were restored and information was again populating the web, apps, etc.

The other issue that users experienced, specifically Android smartphone users, was that the MWN app was crashing in the 12pm hour, just after the storm passed through the city. This has been traced to cell network overloads (likely caused by high volume, as well as limited tower capacity due to power outages) and was beyond our control.  (We understand that another large media entity in town also had difficulties with their app during this time period.)

We wish to take this opportunity to sincerely apologize for the difficulties we experienced today in delivering the timely and accurate information you have come to rely on from MWN. Power outages are not within our control, but our response to them is. A thorough review is underway to determine how we can better respond in these circumstances and ensure backup procedures are in place and fully tested. We can only assure you that we will do better next time.  Thank you for placing your trust in us to provide you with the best weather information possible. Unfortunately, interruptions in service are part of doing business strictly via the web and electronic means.  We remind you (as we did earlier today) to read and understand our severe weather policy, which includes the possibility of outages.

Thank you again for your patronage,

Erik Proseus
Owner, Cirrus Weather Solutions
Meteorologist, MemphisWeather.net