Rain on Beale Street Music Festival?

That seems to be the hot question right now! "I have tickets to Music Fest. Is it gonna rain?" There are two answers to this question: 1) "It's Music Fest. When have you ever known it NOT to rain!" and 2) "There's a 50/50 chance." Nobody seems to like either answer, but unfortunately, they may both be correct!

This week has been one of those that gives a Memphis meteorologist a headache that doesn't seem to go away. I started off the week with some chance of rain in the forecast every day. Each day I have added another day to the end of the forecast cycle and I have yet to predict a dry day through the middle of next week. As you can tell, this does not mean everyone gets rain and it doesn't mean a washout by any stretch. This time of year has its challenges with high pressure over the southeast U.S. battling cold fronts that make a run at us from the northwest. Sometimes the fronts come through, many times they stall. Where they stall always contributes to these never-ending migraines!

This week, a front has stalled out just to our north thanks to fairly strong high pressure to our east. Because it was a little farther north than originally expected, the rain chances didn't really materialize in the metro area early in the week, though Flash Flood Warnings have been out at times for northeast AR. By mid-week, we got into a more diurnal (daytime-driven) shower and thunderstorm pattern with some folks getting brief deluges and others getting nothing. As we head into the latter part of the week and weekend, that front retreats north and we are left trying to time upper-level impulses and determine their effect on our sensible weather in a warm, humid environment.

So to answer the original question, I think that old shoes are a must for Music Fest, because I think the ground could be wet from rain we will likely get in the next 24 hours. Am I that confident in rain on the festivities? Not so much. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be the rule as another front seeps into the area for the weekend, so it could be a downpour one minute and partly sunny the next. Some storms could be strong, particularly during the warmest part of the day, with gusty wind. What it will be is warm (probably 80s before dark and 70s after) and sticky, with a noticeable breeze.

So go enjoy Music Fest and maybe take a small umbrella (oversized not allowed). I've never known a little rain to stop any of you fest-goer's anyway! For more info on the Beale Street Music Fest, go to MemphisinMay.org - and to keep up with my forecast, visit the MWN forecast, or go to the PDA version (http://www.memphisweather.net/pdaforecast.html) if you're on the banks of the mighty Mississippi!

Rain chances return to the Mid-South

After a stretch of lower to mid 80s for 5 days in a row, we'll get one more today, but the weather pattern will begin to change as we say goodbye to abundant sunshine, gusty wind, and very warm temperatures, and spring showers and thunderstorms take over. It could turn out to be a pretty wet week as the MWN forecast carries some chance of rain and/or thunderstorms every day through next Monday!

Tonight, a frontal system will finally wedge its way into the high pressure that has dominated the region the past several days. We'll be close enough this afternoon to see a low chance of t'storms, a few of which could be strong. The wind will continue to blow as well with gusts of 25-30 mph today. Tonight, that front moves just to our north and stalls out, so look for much higher rain chances, with thunder possible, overnight and into Tuesday and Wednesday. The clouds and precipitation will hold temps down in the 70s Tuesday and Wednesday, though overnight lows will continue to be mild.

The front pulls back to the north Thursday as a warm front, but a chance of thunderstorms still exists. Computer models diverge heading into the weekend as the front moves back towards the area. The most likely scenario at this time seems to be the front moving slowly through Friday and Saturday (more rain). Models also hint at precip Sunday and Monday. Fortunately, there are no signs of very cool air approaching, so temperatures should remain springlike throughout.

There you have it - rain chances every day! We certainly won't be inundated with rain every day in the Memphis area, but I also am not confident enough to keep rain OUT of the forecast any of these days. Hopefully the latter part of the week becomes clearer in the next 48 hours or so. Keep the umbrella handy this week and stay with MemphisWeather.net for the latest on the changing weather conditions!