Warmer temps/dry conditions return, and let's talk Florence

The stationary front that has been placed to our south recently has finally begun to move away allowing us to begin warming starting today and especially by Thursday. Our sky remains mostly cloudy with a few showers continuing to dot the radar. Luckily, today appears to be the last day that this will be the case. Who's ready for a little change?

Today

Temps will stay well below average today as highs are only expected to reach around 80 degrees. Our constant cloudiness will help to keep temps this cool. Scattered showers are certainty possible as we move into the afternoon and evening hours, but my guess would be the majority of us will stay dry. If you do get a sprinkle or two of rain, congratulations you've won the rain lottery!

Clouds overnight will help to keep our temps from cooling too dramatically overnight, but still expect temps to fall to near 69. 

Warmer temps return tomorrow 

We will finally begin our transition from this dreary weather pattern on Thursday as high pressure begins to build into the eastern half of the U.S. Temps will warm back to near normal tomorrow with highs reaching around 88. By Friday into this weekend, highs will continue to push into the upper 80s. Normal for our area in mid-September is around 87 degrees, so we should stay around to a degree or two above this over the next few days.

GFS 500mb analysis shows a general ridging pattern over the Eastern half of the U.S. (with the exception of Hurricane Florence). This ridging will allow temps to warm back to above average and keep rain chances low. (Pivotal Weather)

The other benefit from this high pressure building into our area will be less shower activity. Generally speaking, rain chances will be non-existent over the next few days with only a few clouds across the sky. 

For those with #FridayNightLights plans either at the high school or college level, Mother Nature will provide some very nice conditions. Temps will be near the mid 80s at kickoff and will steadily drop through the game to near 80. Additionally, we are not expecting any rain. Sounds like good football weather to me. 

Next Week

Overall, no major weather changes are expected for next week, but rather a continuation of the weather pattern we will experience beginning tomorrow. High pressure will remain over the area. The only potential change will be the direction of our local winds. As the eventual remnants of Florence drift westward (don't worry, no rain from the storm is currently expected locally), the influences could aid in turning our winds from northerly to northeasterly. Overall, not expecting any big  changes though!

In short, above average temps will continue next week with highs in the upper 80s to near 90 and overnight lows in the low 70s. Drier conditions will remain as well with minimal rain chances through the extended period. 

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has highlighted our area in the above average category for much of next week. (NOAA/CPC)

CPC maintains below average precipitation over the Mid-South next week. (NOAA/CPC)

A look at Hurricane Florence

While Hurricane Florence does not pose any threat to our area, this is a very powerful system that is worth mentioning. Hurricane Florence is currently a high-end category 3 located in the Atlantic Ocean and is expected to be very near the U.S. coast on Friday and Saturday.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) shows Hurricane Florence maintaining major hurricane strength as it nears the North Carolina and South Carolina coastlines. The cone represents where the center of the storm could be, but does not necessarily represent the direct impacts related to this system. Damaging wind and storm surge could both occur outside of the cone.  (NOAA/NHC)

There are some interesting atmospheric features that have made forecasting Hurricane Florence's long-range track particularly interesting. A stationary front and mid-level ridge of high pressure has begun to set up along the Appalachian Mountain range that will act to slow down Hurricane Florence and not allow it to push inland as quickly as previously thought. Because of this, Florence will slow to  a crawl and bring torrential rainfall to parts of North and South Carolina.

NHC's key messages highlights the potentially life-threatening storm surge and rainfall that could occur in North and South Carolina due to the Hurricane Florence.  (NOAA/NHC)

If you have friends or family in the area, this is a serious situation and all local evacuations and orders should be followed. More information can be found at hurricanes.gov or through local emergency management in North and South Carolina.

Again, this system will not affect the Mid-South area, but since it is a major weather event, we felt that it should be discussed in the blog. As always, for the latest information on our local weather, reference the links below. 

Caroline MacDonald
MWN Meteorologist Intern

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Cooler weather? Yes, please! Plus a look at Florence

The front that seemed to bring endless storms yesterday evening/last night is finally pushing through, despite the clouds lingering around. Behind this front is some much needed heat relief and lower humidity that should last through a majority of the coming week.

Today

A large stratiform cloud deck remains placed across the Mid-South behind the rain as the front moves through. Source: College of DuPage

Clouds held strong across the Mid-South, but at least the rain moved out as the front pushed southeast of the metro. You probably noticed that the temperatures were much cooler thanks to the cold air coming in behind the front, along with the ample cloud cover preventing any day-time heating. In fact, our daytime high of 70 degrees was the coolest we've been since late April! How's that for some relief? As we head into the night, plan on very crisp temperatures with a low of 63. Too bad the clouds won't be budging. If they did, maybe we could get even cooler since they act like a blanket holding in the "heat." Some might even say today and tonight are a tease of what fall has to bring.

Monday

Those Monday feels shouldn't be as bad as usual thanks to the cool morning air as you head out the door. The only downfall with tomorrow will be that we won't get the clouds out of here. Part of the reason for the persistent clouds will be that the first front will be to our south, but a upper level trough will be diving south and moving through the area late Monday into Monday night. The arrival of this trough will not initially have any adverse effects, but it could lead to some very isolated showers Monday night, with the greatest chance in north Mississippi. Plan on little change in temperatures with Monday's high only in the mid 70s. Monday night, aside from the chance of an isolated shower, skies will be mostly cloudy and temps drop to the mid 60s. 

Tuesday Through Friday

Don't look for much change in the forecast at this point of the forecast. The upper level trough that moves into the area Monday sets up camp over the Mid-South. That means each day we will see a small chance of a shower with a good coverage of clouds, especially Tuesday and Wednesday. Thursday and Friday it scoots slightly further south: enough to drop rain chances and clear skies up slightly. Any rain on Tuesday and Wednesday will be very light and scattered, so not everyone will see it each day (or maybe not even either day). Temperatures through this period will slowly be on the rise, going from a high of 78 Tuesday back to the upper 80s by Friday. Yup...the warm weather returns. Lows follow that same trend, starting in the upper 60s Tuesday and climbing to the lower 70s.

The Weekend

Next weekend is on track to be decent with the upper level trough to our south. Skies will be partly cloudy each day with highs near 90 degrees. Nights will feature mostly clear skies and lows in the lower 70s. A brief return to summer for a few more days!

Hurricane Florence

The current forecast from the National Hurricane Center brings Florence to the east coast as a Cat. 4 hurricane before landfall late this week.

If you haven't heard by now, eyes are on Hurricane Florence that is currently located in the Atlantic. Current projections have this tropical system making landfall along the east coast. Now, we are going to take a moment and encourage you to be careful about where you are receiving updates about this system. An exact landfall location is still not known, since just small changes in the ridge to its north and the front moving across the US now can have big changes in where this goes. 

Current multi-model forecast graph of strength for Florence. Source: Tropical Tidbits.

Looking at intensity forecasts, you can see that Florence is forecast to continue to rapidly strengthen as it enters warmer water and experiences less wind shear (which tends to put a lid on strengthening). There is good agreement among the best models that Florence will maintain major hurricane strength right up until it nears the coast, a "major" problem for wherever it ends up! The graph above shows a rapid fall in intensity, however that is due to land interaction, as those models have it moving ashore after about 96 hours (4 days). Besides the wind and accompanying storm surge, the big story from this storm is likely to be significant to record inland flooding over the Mid-Atlantic as it appears the center of circulation could stall out in the region for perhaps a few days.

Numerous model plots of projected track for Florence as the storm approaches the east coast. Source: Mike's Weather Page

Regardless of strength, those along the east coast should remain aware of what local forecasters are saying over the next several day to remain safe. We don't expect any direct impacts from Florence on our weather here in the Mid-South.

Reginald Roakes
MWN Meteorologist

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Recap of Hurricane Matthew & Mid-South weather this week

Former Major Hurricane Matthew is finally headed out to sea, after watching it for nearly 2 weeks - from its genesis as a tropical storm with 60 mph wind on its first official advisory near the Leeward Islands, to the strongest hurricane on record so far south (just off the South American coast), through the hard right turn towards Jamaica and Haiti, to a brief landfall in far southwest Haiti that still managed to kill nearly 1000 Haitians (more than the past 5 Atlantic season combined), to a path through the Bahamas as a major hurricane, along its coast-grazing run up the Florida peninsula that could have been SO much worse if it had been 25 miles west, to the lashing and splashing of the Carolina coasting with literally TRILLIONS of gallons of water and a landfall on the SC coast, to a scary forecast scenario indicating a possible turn back towards the Bahamas, and - finally - being absorbed by a front that will take the post-tropical cyclone straight out to sea.

Here are some graphics and tweets that help tell the story:

The entirety of the wind swath associated with Matthew. Hurricane force wind was generated continuously from just off the South American coast through the Caribbean, Bahamas, up the coast of FL and into the Mid-Atlantic coast. (NHC)

A new inlet was even cut by the powerful wave action along the coast of Florida between St. Augustine and Palm Coast as shown in these before/after images from NOAA.

Rainfall amounts (radar-derived and gauge readings) over the Carolinas through Saturday evening. (WxBell)

Rainfall from Hurricane #Matthew in trillions of gallons during last 3 days (Table: https://t.co/QxiAEh4gVn)
FL+GA+SC+NC+VA = 13.6 Trillon pic.twitter.com/3rPhsyOS0h

— Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) October 9, 2016

Listing of #HurricaneMatthew peak wind gust reports for southeast #GAwx #SCwx #NCwx and southeast #VAwx pic.twitter.com/VcKtTXqcy0

— NWS Eastern Region (@NWSEastern) October 9, 2016

Stunning visible image of Matthew at 2:20 pm Saturday from the Aqua satellite. Credit NASA/Goddard Spaceflight Center.

In the end, despite what will easily be a billion dollar weather disaster for the U.S., it could have been so much worse, especially for Florida, which narrowly escaped 80-100+ mph wind gusts along an extensive length of its coastline (107 mph gust recorded on the far eastern tip of Cape Canaveral, which sticks out into the Atlantic by several miles and was observed 54' above the ground). In addition, the 4000-day major hurricane landfall "drought" continues on, as Matthew didn't officially make landfall until it was a minimal category 1 hurricane on the SC coast. The last major (category 3) landfall in the U.S. was Hurricane Wilma, just short of 11 years ago, in 2005. Here's a list of other factoids and records set by Matthew, courtesy of Colorado State University hurricane expert Dr. Philip Klotzbach.

Prayers go out to all of those affected, who have lost possessions, or perhaps even family or friends, in the storm. Hopefully no additional storms will affect land for the remainder of the 2016 season, which ends on November 30.

Locally, the coolest and driest air of the fall season is over us this weekend, leading to lows well into the 40s this morning outside of the urban core. Highs in the 70s with a northeast breeze and very low humidity are making for pleasant conditions this weekend. As we head into Fall Break week for many area families, another very pleasant day is on tap Monday before temperatures warm back into the 80s for the middle of the week ahead. Typical of fall though, dewpoints will remain low, meaning humidity will be at comfortable levels and morning lows will also be quite nice - in the 50s to near 60.

Precipitable water (PW) on Tuesday morning, according to the GFS model, shows relatively dry atmospheric conditions across the region. Values less than 1" (where green changes to blue in the image) are considered comfortable. (PivotalWeather)

Another cold front arrives Wednesday night with a slight chance of rain. Unfortunately, there are no good chances of much-needed rainfall in the forecast. Behind the front, we'll cool back down a bit into the 70s to end the week. The cool spells seem to be short-lived as well above average temperatures are expected to continue, on average, through at least the 3rd week of October. Even more reason to enjoy the cool when we get it!

GFS model forecast precipitation during our best chance of rain this week - Thursday between midnight and noon. Very low rain chances exist this coming week. (PivotalWeather)

Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

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Hurricane Matthew and Mid-South Weather Update - October 3, 2016

Please see below for a Facebook Live video update of the status of Category 4 (Major) Hurricane Matthew, which looks like it could threaten the U.S. later this week, as well as a Mid-South weather update, featuring warmer temperatures this week and a cool-down in time for the weekend!

Click here for a direct link to the video on Facebook.



And below is a cool plot from a buoy that Matthew went directly over in the southern Caribbean. Stunning!

Hurricane #Matthew made a rare direct hit on a buoy in the Caribbean, NOAA buoy 42058 located near 15N 75W, and survived. @NOAA @NHCDirector pic.twitter.com/lnYiNzXT7C

— NHC Atlantic Ops (@NHC_Atlantic) October 3, 2016

Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

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4 things to know about the weather for the first week of October

We're moving out of a very dry (and hot until this past week) September into October, which typically means fall begins in earnest. Average highs drop from 80° to 70° over the course of the month, record highs drop into the 80s, and morning lows in the 40s become more likely, especially the latter half of October. With a taste of dry air and fall weather this past week, what does the first week of October bring? Here are 4 things you need to know:

1. A gorgeous weekend is ahead! Highs will generally be near 80° or so with lows near 60° in the city and back into the 50s outside the loop. Clouds will stick around, especially during the daylight hours this afternoon and tomorrow, but more sun will be expected on "Sun"-day. Humidity levels remain comfortable as dewpoints stay in the 50s. Open the windows in the evenings and pop that sunroof! There are also plenty of outdoor activities that you can take advantage of.

2. The cool temperatures of the past few days will give way to warmer air next week. Fortunately, we're not talking about a string of 90s, but mid to upper 80s for the middle of next week will be warm enough as humidity creeps back up just a a bit as well. Dry weather continues.

High temperatures for Wednesday, October 5, according to the American GFS model. (WxBell)

3. A cold front will move through mid-to-late next week (likely Thursday), which will bring our next chance of rain and possibly a few thunderstorms. It looks to be a quick hitter though, so no prolonged rainfall is expected to help with our recent deficit. Behind it, slightly cooler and drier air again works its way into the Mid-South.

The surface forecast for next Thursday morning from the NWS shows a cold front moving toward the Mid-South, which will provide our next chance of rain. (NOAA/NWS/WPC)

4. And as a bonus, outside the Mid-South, eyes are on Major Hurricane Matthew which is churning it's way through the southern Caribbean Sea. It's moving west off the coast of South America (yes, that is pretty far south for a Caribbean storm), but will make a hard right turn and head north towards Jamaica and Cuba early next week then into the Bahamas by the middle of next week.

Latest forecast track for Hurricane Matthew from the National Hurricane Center

Significant impacts are possible in all of those locations as no noticeable weakening is expected until it interacts with the island of Cuba. It remains to be seen how much effect Cuba has on it. After the Bahamas, the east coast of the U.S. needs to keep a close eye on Matthew's track. Some models take it towards the Outer Banks of North Carolina, then turn it east, but it is still a long ways out from that. More detail can be found on the MWN Tropical Page.

Based on the output of many meteorological computer models, the potential paths of Matthew are shown above. These "spaghetti plots" change routinely and are not all possible options.

Enjoy the fall weekend!

Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

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Thursday evening update on Tropical Storm Isaac

For the past day or so, we've been pushing out bits of information about Tropical Storm Isaac on our social feeds, however there is enough interest even in the Mid-South that it's time to cull the latest information and put it together in one place.  So here it is. We encourage you to follow us on social media for the latest info as it happens - links can be found at the end of this blog.

So far, Isaac wins the award for the largest mess of a tropical system I can recall.  While nearly 1000 miles wide, it has so far remained highly disorganized, thanks in large part to a great deal of dry air that has been caught up in the northern half of the storm.  Multiple times today, the National Hurricane Center and Hurricane Hunters flying into the storm have noted "multiple centers" to the storm - individual areas of low pressure within the cloud mass and convection (thunderstorms). If this storm can get organized (which we expect it to tomorrow), it could become a large one to reckon with.

Obviously in forecasting, including for systems like these, meteorologists rely strongly on computer models to provide a clue as to what path a storm will take, how strong it will be, and how fast it will move. Then, intuition kicks in and adjustments are made to the forecast. I'll admit I am NOT a tropical forecaster and have not been specifically trained in hurricane meteorology. However, I can parse a great deal of incoming information and I follow many bright minds in the business for clues on a storm's structure and tendencies.  While I don't claim to be able to forecast the track or intensity myself, I DO know a fair amount about what causes these storms to tick, what factors tend to strengthen and weaken them, as well as the potential impacts given a known set of parameters.

First I introduce the current conditions. Below is a recent infrared satellite image as the storm moves generally west, to the south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic.  Maximum sustained wind is near 45 mph.  The strongest convection (storms) is in the reds and dark grays, mainly southwest of the center.  I expect we may see that center re-located somewhat if convection continues in that area as it seems the most likely place for the primary "center" of the storm to appear.

8:15pm infrared satellite image of Tropical Storm Isaac

Next, we look at the official track from the National Hurricane Center. It indicates a west-northwest motion across Haiti tomorrow, a northwest path over the mountainous terrain of Cuba on Saturday, then emerging over the southeast Gulf of Mexico Sunday afternoon.  After a hit on the Florida Keys (with south Florida on the stronger east side of the storm), Isaac continues northwest across the Gulf towards the north-central Gulf Coast early next week.

UPDATED: 10pm CDT official forecast track of Tropical Storm Isaac from NHC

Isaac could briefly attain hurricane status before reaching Cuba, but will lose strength over the mountains this weekend if this path verifies.  Once emerging over the Gulf, conditions are highly favorable for re-intensification, perhaps rapidly depending on how disorganized it becomes over Cuba.  The less time it spends over land, the more likely it is to be stronger after emerging over water and begins strengthening again.

Now we look at a series of computer model forecasts, commonly called "spaghetti plots" - you can probably see why they are called that.  These potential tracks, as a group, have been shifting west with each new model run (which occur every 6 hours). First, the afternoon model runs, which show potential landfalls, as a group, between the Big Bend of FL and the MS Gulf Coast.

Computer model output from several models on Thursday afternoon showing potential tracks for Isaac

Next we check out the latest evening models, which clearly show a more westward shift with potential landfalls from southeast Louisiana to near Pensacola.

Computer model output for Thursday evening. Note a general westward "shift" in the potential tracks (as a whole).

Finally, we look at another suite of forecast tracks, all from the same model (the well-known GFS) but with various possibilities this model considers.  Again, the tracks cluster along the north-central Gulf Coast with landfalls ranging from Biloxi to Apalachicola (disregarding a couple of outliers).

GFS ensemble members forecast tracks for Isaac

Lastly, let's look at one of the reasons why intensification is likely over the Gulf - water temperatures. Many parts of the Gulf are nearly bathwater temperature, which is like feeding an athlete Wheaties, then injecting steroids. The orange-red colors are temperatures of 86-90+ degrees.  Any storm that passes over those waters will get a shot of high-octane fuel.

So, what does all this mean?  It means you should stay tuned.  It means that the northern Gulf of Mexico needs to be on high alert for the possibility that we could see the first major (category 3 or stronger) U.S. landfall in nearly 7 years (the last was Wilma in the infamous year of 2005, which also produced Katrina).  It also means that the entire east coast of Florida could be side-swiped, including Tampa - the site of the Republican National Convention next week. It also means that meteorologists will be closely monitoring the tracks and that it's conceivable the city of New Orleans could be tested for the first time since Katrina.  Landfall, wherever it occurs, will likely be in the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame with the storm moving out of the Gulf Coast region about 24-36 hours after landfall.

How about impacts on the Mid-South?  It's really too early to tell. However, one thing we are sure of is this - the farther west the track goes in the Gulf, the more likely it is we could feel some impact.  A landfall in Louisiana would give us a higher likelihood of rain than landfall in the Florida panhandle.  I don't know anyone who wouldn't welcome some rain in the Mid-South after the drought of summer 2012!

Stay with us for the latest via the MWN Tropical page on MemphisWeather.net as well as our Twitter and Facebook feeds linked below.

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Major hurricane Ophelia's effects recorded by NOAA buoy

On Saturday morning, October 1, as it reached category 3 strength, Hurricane Ophelia passed directly over a NOAA buoy positioned  a couple hundred miles south-southeast of Bermuda in the Atlantic Ocean.  The position of buoy 41049 is shown in the map below.

As you can see from the map, there is a network of buoys within about 50 miles of the U.S. coastline and a series of buoys much further offshore (buoys are shown as yellow and red diamonds). While it is not unusual for a landfalling tropical system to pass over a near-shore buoy, it takes pretty good aim (or a fair amount of luck) for a storm to pass directly over a buoy in the middle of the ocean!

The usefulness of these buoys is magnified when a tropical system gets close enough to one of these floating instrument platforms (see the pic of a buoy similar to 41049 below). The meteorological data that can be gathered as the storm passes aids the National Hurricane Center in forecasting the strength, movement, and other attributes (such as wind field and wave heights) of a storm through direct measurement, rather than remotely using satellite data.

In this case, the graphs below show what the wind, air pressure, and wave heights were as the storm passed overhead.  In the first graph, the air pressure (green) plummeted to about 28.10" in the eye of the storm, the wind speed (blue) reached nearly 70 knots (80 mph) and gusted to 100 knots (115 mph)!  In the second graph, the wave height reached just over 40 feet in that 100+ mph wind!  In this case, the buoy data affirmed the strength that the Hurricane Center had indicated for the storm at that time.

And finally, here is the satellite imagery for approximately the same time as Ophelia traversed buoy 41049.

Most Atlantic tropical systems are tracked on the MWN Tropical page.  Check it out whenever there are storms that pose any threat to the U.S. or other land masses.

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For weather information for Memphis and the Mid-South, where and when you need it, visit MemphisWeather.net on the web, m.memphisweather.net on your mobile phone, download our iPhone or Android apps, or visit us on Facebook or Twitter.

Weekend forecast looks nice in the Mid-South, but not in the northeast U.S!

The blog has been quiet of late, owing to many things going on behind the scenes, as well as other obligations that have prevented me from writing.

One of the big things going on behind the scenes is the imminent release of our newest service for smartphone users - StormWatch+. I am very excited about this new service, which will revolutionize the way you receive severe weather information!  If you haven't already downloaded the apps, I encourage you to do so so that you will be ready for the upgrades when they are released.  The iPhone update should be ready next week and then we'll get to work on porting it to Android.  You can download the apps by searching for "MemphisWeather.net" in the App Store, iTunes, or Android Market or by clicking on the links on MemphisWeather.net.

So, back to the weather at hand... A cold front is passing through the region today with little fanfare. However, we will begin to see a marked difference in one thing with this front - the humidity!  By tomorrow afternoon, even though temperatures will still be near 90, the humidity will bottom out near 40%, which will make it feel much more comfortable. The lower humidity values will also allow overnight temperatures to drop down into the 60s for the next few nights everywhere except perhaps on the concrete of the big city. Pleasantly warm high pressure that takes hold behind the front will hang on through the weekend and right into next weekend thanks to Hurricane Irene moving up the East Coast and keeping weather systems over our part of the country at bay for a few days.

Hurricane Irene over the Bahamas as seen by Astronaut Ron Garan aboard the International Space Station

Speaking of Irene, I've been closely following the model tracks and forecast intensity of the storm as it moved into and through the Bahamas and now begins a beeline up the eastern seaboard.  Given the current track and models trends, my biggest concern right now is for the major metros of the northeast which have not dealt with a system like this in decades.  Besides significant wind (currently category 3 and expected to remain a hurricane right into the NYC metro) and torrential rainfall that could inundate sewer systems in large cities and cause flash flooding, storm surge could be particularly dangerous for coastal areas from the Delmarva up to Massachusetts. For a great read on the potential effects of this storm on the northeastern U.S., please check out Weather Underground's Tropical expert Dr. Jeff Master's blog post from earlier today.  Other links that are worth checking out:

MWN Tropical - everything the rubber-necker from Memphis needs in one concise package
StormPulse.com - the best interactive presentation on the tropical web
Crown Weather's Irene page - extremely comprehensive, no stone left unturned
Weather.com - complete coverage by the weather authorities

That's it for today. Thanks for reading and enjoy the great weather this weekend!

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