Minimal rain chances, but it'll be hot for the foreseeable future

Summer "officially" starts 6 days from today, but Mother Nature has decided to bring on the full-on summertime pattern to our area early. This weekend into next week, our forecast pattern will be primarily influenced by a high pressure that has developed over our area. This high pressure will keep our rain chances to a minimum, but will allow our temps to reach around 5 degrees above average for mid June. Main story lines will be our poor air quality and dangerous heat index values through the weekend.

Poor air quality today, could continue into tomorrow

A Code Orange Air Quality Alert (AQA) is in effect for today for Shelby and surrounding counties. This means forecast ozone levels near the surface are expected to be potentially hazardous. With our light winds and very hot temperatures, this has contributed to the poor air quality.  

We are under a Code Orange Air Quality Alert, which means sensitive groups are the most likely to feel impacts from the air today. 

While this may not impact most peoples day to day activities, people should limit their prolonged outdoor activities. This especially applies to sensitive groups such as active children/adults and people with respiratory diseases such as asthma. Visit www.midsouthair.org for more information on the Code Orange and additional safety tips. 

While this AQA has not been extended into tomorrow yet, I would not be surprised if this continues through the weekend. 

Today & this weekend

Satellite imagery as of 10:15 AM today shows some cloud coverage to our north and south, but not a lot of clouds over our area. (College of DuPage)

Under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies, the main story over the next few days will be our temperatures. Daily highs will creep into the low to mid 90s with overnight temps only falling into the mid 70s. Our dew point temps will stick in the 70s, which will keep our humidity levels pretty high through the weekend. With our temps and humidity levels being this high, there are some heat index concerns. 

The National Weather Service begins issuing Heat Index Advisories when the heat index reaches 105 degrees and Heat Index Warnings when these values reach over 110. (NOAA/NWS)

Right now, our local NWS has issued a Special Weather Statement highlighting these dangerous heat index values. For today, these values will likely coast in the 100 to 105 degree range. However, heat index values will near 105 tomorrow, so a Heat Advisory may need to be issued.

6/15 12:30 PM Update: Our local NWS just issued a Heat Advisory for northeastern Arkansas, including Crittenden County, through 9 PM tonight. Heat index values are expected to reach 106 to 108 degrees this afternoon. Exercise caution with strenuous outdoor activities, especially in this area.

Starting today through this weekend, it would be a good idea to follow heat safety tips. Limiting prolonged outdoor activities, staying hydrated, and applying plenty of sunscreen will be your best friend this weekend. 

Here are a few heat safety tips. For more information, visit www.weather.gov/heat (NOAA/NWS)

The good news is that rain chances will be fairly small over the next few days. While we can't completely rule out an afternoon shower/thunderstorm with how much moisture is present, any showers that develop will stay isolated. The "best" day for these afternoon thunderstorms appears to be Sunday, but even then there is no guarantee that storms will be able to fire under high pressure. So if you do have outdoor plans this weekend, while it'll be hot, you shouldn't have to worry about rain chances until Sunday. 

Glance at next week

Next week appears to be a continuation of our current weather pattern with no real relief in sight. High pressure will continue to dominate the area, although models vary as to when the ridge will begin to break down. What would this mean for us? Afternoon rain chances vs minimal afternoon rain chances. If the high pressure remains well in place, which I lean towards this happening, then our small, isolated rain chances will continue. If the high pressure begins to break down, then we may get slightly higher rain chances each day. 

Taking a look at the 500 mb level, there is a ridge that has built in over the area which will continue to hold on next week. This loop from Monday through Wednesday shows minimal mid level winds with this ridge staying in place. (Pivotal Weather)

Regardless, high temps appear to remain in the low 90s into next week. Dew point temps look to coast in the low 70s, which will keep our humidity levels pretty high. Overnight temps will fall into the mid 70s, so we won't have much relief then as well. 

Overall, stay hydrated this weekend and into next week folks. It'll be hot, but at least outdoor plans shouldn't be hindered by any rain. As always, if our AQA is extended or a Heat Advisory is issued, we will be sure to let you know on our social media platforms.

Caroline MacDonald
MWN Meteorologist Intern

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Humidity on the rise, hot temps continue

Code Orange Air Quality Alert Tomorrow

The Memphis area briefly reached Code Red for poor air quality late this afternoon, though that expires at sunset. However, yet another Code Orange Air Quality Alert (AQA) is in effect for tomorrow for Shelby and surrounding counties. This AQA is due to the forecast ozone quantities in near-surface air. What does this mean? Well, since wind is light and temperatures are very hot, whenever ozone pollutants are created in the atmosphere they don't get pushed out of our area, hence increasing the amount of ozone that hangs around.

Air Quality is ranked numerically, but also with a color code. Orange and higher becomes problematic for those with difficulty breathing, and even the general population.

While this may not impact your day to day living, it is recommended that you limit prolonged outdoor activities, especially for sensitive groups such as active children/adults and people with respiratory disease such as asthma. 

Visit www.midsouthclearair.org for more information on the Code Orange and additional safety tips.

Now through Saturday

Fairly quiet conditions will continue now through the first half of this weekend as our overall weather pattern continues to be dominated by a high pressure in the Ohio River Valley. Winds have shifted to become more southerly, which has added that additional mugginess factor into the forecast. Highs will glide into the low to mid 90s for the remainder of the week with dew point temps coasting into the upper 60s. This will allow heat index values to reach near 100 by Saturday.

Temps will fall into the low 70s each night. The good news for the forecast period is we will have sunny skies through the first half of the weekend, without any of those pesky afternoon shower chances. If you have plans now until Saturday, enjoy the sunshine! It may be hot and humid, but it'll be nice to have a few more days with no rain chances for a change. Just make sure you are paying attention to the air quality levels and take precautions as necessary!

Scattered rain chances re-introduced on Sunday 

Our minimal rain chances could only last so long as moisture continues to be pushed into the area to begin next week. With southerly winds remaining, plenty of moisture will aid in our dew point temps continuing to rise, which brings in those scattered showers and thunderstorm chances each day. 

Dew point temps will continue to rise through the beginning of next week as winds remain southerly to southwesterly. Purple is higher moisture/dewpoints in this loop. (Pivotal Weather)

Additionally, temps will remain above average through the beginning of next week. Highs look to top off in low 90s with overnight temps falling to the mid 70s.

The remainder of next week looks to be characterized by similar temperatures and more moisture, which will bring up those rain chances each day. It has been nice to have a week without scattered afternoon showers/t'storms. However, the general summertime trend will likely return next week.

The 6-10 outlook from the Climate Prediction Center has Memphis right on the border between slightly above and above average temperatures.  This is valid for next Tuesday through next Saturday. (NOAA/CPC)

The 6-10 outlook from the Climate Prediction Center keeps Memphis in the slightly above average category in terms of precipitation for next week. (NOAA/CPC) 

Caroline MacDonald
MWN Meteorologist Intern

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Follow MWN on Facebook and Twitter for routine updates and the latest info!
Complete MWN Forecast: MemphisWeather.net on the mobile web or via the MWN mobile app
Download our iPhone or Android apps, featuring StormWatch+ severe weather alerts!

MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador

Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder

Prolonged and dangerous heat wave beginning over the Mid-South

A prolonged heat wave began today with a high of 98 degrees and will continue for the majority of the next week, if not longer, including the July 4th holiday.  This heat wave will include daily high temperatures in the triple digits.  There is no rain in the forecast for the next week, which will also further exacerbate drought conditions.  The following was issued this afternoon by NWS-Memphis:


SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
400 PM CDT WED JUN 27 2012

...PROLONGED HEAT WAVE EXPECTED OVER THE MID-SOUTH FROM THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH DANGEROUSLY HOT WEATHER EXPECTED...

A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD OVER THE MID-SOUTH THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK, THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AND INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VERY HOT TEMPERATURES WITH AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY VALUES BY THE END OF THIS WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY EXCEED 100 DEGREES BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WITH EVEN HOTTER TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 102 AND 104 DEGREES EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MOST LOCATIONS WILL BREAK RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH ALL TIME JUNE HEAT RECORDS IN JEOPARDY IN SOME LOCATIONS. [THE ALL-TIME WARMEST TEMPERATURE RECORDED IN JUNE AT MEMPHIS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IS 104, SET LAST ON JUNE 28, 1954.]

THESE VERY HOT TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS BY THIS WEEKEND WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUSLY HIGH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN EXCESS OF 105 DEGREES. THIS WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS HEAT CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE OUTDOORS FOR EXTENDED PERIODS
OF TIME OR FOR THOSE CONDUCTING STRENUOUS OUTDOOR WORK OR EXERCISE. REMEMBER, BEAT THE HEAT AND CHECK THE BACKSEAT. DO NOT LEAVE CHILDREN UNATTENDED IN VEHICLES FOR ANY PERIOD OF TIME IN THE HEAT. ALSO REMEMBER TO CHECK ON THE ELDERLY, THOSE WITHOUT INDOOR AIR CONDITIONING, AND OUTDOOR PETS. HEAT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR THE END OF THIS WEEK OR DURING THE WEEKEND.

PLEASE REVIEW AND ENACT HEAT SAFETY TIPS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS RISE TO DANGEROUS LEVELS.

In addition to the heat, ozone levels will be at high levels through much of this heat spell, likely prompting daily Code Orange air quality alerts. Precautions for poor air quality are similar to those for heat. To review heat safety tips from MemphisWeather.net, click here.

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For weather information for Memphis and the Mid-South, where and when you need it, visit MemphisWeather.net on the web, m.memphisweather.net on your mobile phone, download our iPhone or Android apps, or visit us on Facebook or Twitter.

What's up with these Code Orange ozone alerts?

Thanks to hot conditions generated by stagnant high pressure over the region, the low-level ozone is forecast by the Shelby County Health Department Air Quality Improvement Branch to be high enough that a Code Orange Ozone Advisory has been issued for Wednesday.  This is certainly not the first of these advisories to be issued this summer and it won't be the last.  In fact, it's possible we could see them for the rest of the week based on the current forecast.

Code Orange means that the air is "Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups," including those with respiratory problems under normal circumstances (asthma, lung disease, etc.) and active adults and children and the elderly. The Health Department urges everyone to reduce time spent outside and limit prolonged exertion, reduce trips and carpool and limit idling, and schedule outdoor activities in the morning and evening, avoiding the hottest part of the day.  In addition, you can conserve energy but raising the thermostat slightly, turn off unused appliances and lights, and close the blinds or curtains so that less air conditioning is required to cool your home, all in an effort to reduce pollution.

Why are we seemingly under more Code Orange alerts the past couple of years? It isn't entirely because the air is worse... the federal government recently (2008) changed the air quality standards, requiring stricter compliance and cleaner air.  Therefore, code orange actually requires lower ozone levels than it used to - thus more alerts for the same ozone levels!

For more information on ozone and air quality, visit the following links:

• MWN's Air Quality Forecast page
• Shelby County Health Department Air Quality Improvement Branch
• AirNow.gov - excellent resource
• EnviroFlash - air quality notifications
• Environmental Protection Agency
• More about ozone from the EPA
• What you can do - reduce air pollution

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For weather information for Memphis and the Mid-South, where and when you need it, visit MemphisWeather.net on the web, m.memphisweather.net on your mobile phone, download our iPhone or Android apps, or visit us on Facebook or Twitter.

Code Orange Ozone Forecast for Tuesday

AIR QUALITY ALERT MESSAGE
MEMPHIS AND SHELBY COUNTY HEALTH DEPARTMENT
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
417 PM CDT MON APR 12 2010

...CODE ORANGE OZONE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY...

THE MEMPHIS AND SHELBY COUNTY HEALTH DEPARTMENT HAS ISSUED A CODE ORANGE OZONE FORECAST EFFECTIVE FOR SHELBY COUNTY TENNESSEE... CRITTENDEN COUNTY ARKANSAS... AND DESOTO COUNTY MISSISSIPPI... INCLUDING THE CITY OF MEMPHIS FOR TUESDAY. THIS OZONE FORECAST IS DUE TO FORECASTED OZONE VALUES THAT WILL BE UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS. THESE VALUES WILL EXCEED THE ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCYS FEDERAL SAFE HEALTH STANDARD.

THE MEMPHIS AND SHELBY COUNTY HEALTH DEPARTMENT RECOMMENDS THAT SENSITIVE GROUPS WHICH INCLUDE ACTIVE CHILDREN AND ADULTS... AND PEOPLE WITH RESPIRATORY DISEASE... SUCH AS ASTHMA... LIMIT PROLONGED OUTDOOR EXERTION. PLEASE CONTINUE TO CHECK THE LATEST AIR QUALITY FORECASTS AND UPDATES UNTIL MONITORED VALUES RETURN TO SAFE LEVELS. FOR MORE INFORMATION GO TO WWW.SHELBYCOUNTYTN.GOV.

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Additional information regarding this alert can be found at AirNow.gov, as well as from the Memphis/Shelby County Health Department - Pollution Control Division. Air quality forecasts are also available daily at MemphisWeather.net.