Wet and stormy Thursday, followed by a beautiful start to the weekend

[ Editor's Note: This is the first MWN Blog post written by new intern Christian Bridges, with only light editing by yours truly. Hope you enjoy this informative read! ]

Hope everyone has been enjoying the wonderful spring weather we have been experiencing across the Mid-South the past few days! While the weather is warm, clouds and breezy south wind have been the story for most of today. Dewpoints are near 70 degrees, really helping to add to the warm, humid summertime feel to the air. Breezy south winds will continue pumping warm air and moisture into the Mid-South, setting the stage for widespread rain and scattered thunderstorms tomorrow. 

Slow-moving cold front = wet Thursday

A cold front to our northwest has been the focus for very heavy rain and severe weather across Arkansas and Missouri, and as it slowly sinks south tonight and into tomorrow our rain and storm chances will really ramp up. The southerly winds and high amount of moisture in the air will also keep us mild overnight, with a low around 70°.

The cold front will slowly approach the region tonight but most precipitation will remain close to the front and to our northwest overnight. Tomorrow, showers and a few thunderstorms could start by morning rush hour and continue through the morning. The front will finally move through in the afternoon, bringing a slightly better chance of scattered thunderstorms.

The HRRR model depiction of forecast radar echoes from 10pm Wednesday through 1am Friday. (WeatherBell)

The Storm Prediction Center has us in a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) of severe weather Thursday, and a few strong storms in the area does not seem like a bad bet. While this won’t be a major severe event by any means, tomorrow is a good day to keep an eye on the skies (and our social media feeds) just in case a Severe Thunderstorm Warning is issued. The main threats with any strong or severe storm will be strong winds and isolated large hail. 

The Storm Prediction Center severe weather outlook for Thursday has the area in a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) for a few strong storms capable mainly of gusty wind. (via Pivotal Weather)

As storms move through the metro during the afternoon hours, some places could pick up some notable rainfall totals, especially if heavy storms repeatedly move over the same area. The Weather Prediction Center has placed us under a level 2/4 (Slight) risk for excessive rainfall tomorrow, and low lying areas and underpasses could see minor flooding during heavier storms. Models show a consistent 1.0-1.5” of rain with this event.

The Weather Prediction Center Excessive Rainfall Outlook for Thursday has the metro in a Slight Risk (level 2/4) for potential flash flooding. (via Pivotal Weather)

The National Blend of Models (NBM) total precipitation through Friday at 1am indicates over an inch of rain will fall across the metro. (WeatherBell)

Spring sunshine to start the weekend

Our reward for putting up with heavy rain and storms comes on Friday, with an absolutely gorgeous day in store. The cold front will sweep out the Gulf moisture, leaving Friday feeling cooler, sunny, and fresh. Expect a high of 74 with breezy NE winds around 10-15 mph. Friday night looks a bit cool, with a low in the low 50s and continued mostly clear conditions. Saturday is the pick of the weekend, with highs in the upper 70s and partly cloudy skies. Rain is once again in the forecast for Sunday, so if you want to do something outdoors it would be best to plan it for Friday or Saturday!

Looking ahead

A persistent trough over the center of the country will keep the pattern unsettled as we go into next week. An upper level low pressure system lingering over the Southwestern US over the next few days will finally push east into Monday, bringing shower and storm chances Sunday through Tuesday. Temperatures look to be seasonable, in the upper 70s and low 80s each day. Depending on how far north the warm front gets and if all of the right ingredients come together, severe weather could also be possible next week. Timing and threats will begin to shape up over the next few days, so stay tuned for that. 

The European model depiction of the upper level pattern through early next week shows an upper level low (blues) moving into the Mid-South, then being absorbed by a larger trough that moves into the area late in the weekend. Overall, an unsettled pattern results with the exception of Friday and Saturday. (WeatherBell)

Christian Bridges
MWN Social Media Intern

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Follow MWN on Facebook and Twitter for routine updates and the latest info!
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Warmer spring conditions return; farewell from an intern

Early in April, the Mid-South recorded a string of days with high temperatures that averaged near the 80 degree mark. On this blog, I wrote a blog that indicated in the title that cooler spring weather "appears persistent." Sure enough, every day since then has had an average temperature that was below normal for that day. Today marks another turning point.

Pattern shift = warmer weather 

High pressure at the surface and aloft have built into the region. After a "Chamber of Commerce" weather day on Sunday, temperatures warm back above average for the next few days under the ridge of high pressure. We should see highs back to 80 degrees this afternoon with abundant sunshine and breezy south wind. Look for slowly increasing high cloudiness heading into Monday night and Tuesday though as the next system slowly approaches from our southwest. Wind picks up a bit further the next couple of days with southerly gusts in the 20-30 mph range under those high clouds. Highs still reach the low 80s though, and morning lows also rise into the 60s. 

Mid-week "fly in the ointment"

By Wednesday afternoon and evening, a stray shower will be possible as atmospheric moisture increases and we're caught between a weakening upper level low pressure system to our west and strong high pressure over the southeast U.S.

The European model shows the upper level pattern over the coming week indicates above average pressure values (oranges) through much of the week before an upper level low pressure center moves by just to our south late in the week. (WeatherBell)

The high finally relinquishes control Thursday and Friday as the upper low moves into the region, bringing higher rain chances Thursday and Thursday night. A few thunderstorms are possible, but the  severe weather threat appears low. With a surface front moving in coordination with the upper low, additional cloud cover and rain will hold down temperatures on Thursday with highs in the mid 70s. 

Trailing the front, the upper level pattern does not feature as strong of a ridge as earlier in the week. So despite clouds departing, temperatures will remain cooler but still very pleasant - in the 70s for highs and 50s for lows. That should result in a very nice weekend ahead for those of you planning outdoor activities, events, or perhaps graduation parties! 

Farewell to an MWN intern

This is #TeamMWN intern Grace Anello's final week on our social media feeds. Here are some parting thoughts from Grace:

Looking back on the last year, I cannot believe how quickly the time has passed! In late April of 2020, Erik hired me on as an intern in the midst of a pandemic and began training me and shaping my meteorological knowledge from the ground, up. So much of what I know about our field and the analysis we do everyday is from members of the MWN Team. I have so enjoyed getting to craft forecast updates and interact with all of our readers online via Facebook and Twitter! I am excited for the future and for my next chapter at WKRN News 2 [Nashville] as one of their interns but I will always remember and be thankful for the foundation that MWN gave to me! You all have taken this Atlanta girl, moved me 400 miles to the west and still made me feel at home. Thanks for a great year and please keep in touch via my Twitter or Facebook, both @AnelloWX.  -Grace Anello

Grace has been a valuable part of the team for the past year, as has recently-departed intern Justin Bowles. While both have/are moving on to other adventures, the mark they have made on MWN and me personally will live on. They have both served all of you diligently and learned a great deal in the process. 

I'm grateful to be able to provide this "real-world learning laboratory" to the next generation of great meteorologists who will take their knowledge and experiences into the field in the coming years. Grace has one more year at Mississippi State and will then be sharing her forecasts with a lucky TV market after that. We wish nothing but the best to Grace and Justin! Your futures are bright!

Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

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Follow MWN on Facebook and Twitter for routine updates and the latest info!
Complete MWN Forecast: MemphisWeather.net on the mobile web or via the MWN mobile app
Download our iPhone or Android apps, featuring StormWatch+ severe weather alerts!

MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador

Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder