June 2022 Climate Report for Memphis, TN

June Climate Recap

The first third of the month of June was overall relatively decent, with seven of the first 11 days featuring temperatures below average and about an inch of rain falling. However, the pattern changed starting on the 12th. From that day through the end of the month, there were only three days that high temperatures did not reach the mid 90s, six days with highs at or above 100 (second most for the month of June on record), only two days with slightly below average temperatures, and no rainfall officially recorded. Temperature records were set on multiple days. Thus the month ended well above average temperature-wise (7th warmest on record) and well below average from a precipitation perspective (10th driest on record), totaling under an inch of rain. 

Drought conditions started to set in by the end of the month as well. There was one Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued in the metro in June, for Tunica County on the 8th, and no reports of storm damage during the month.

Comparison of the Drought Index from the start to end of the month of June shows the results of a lack of precipitation for the month. Conditions would worsen in early July as rainfall remained scarce. (U.S. Drought Monitor)

Memphis International Airport, Memphis, TN

Temperature 

Average temperature: 83.2 degrees (3.3 degrees above average) 

Average high temperature: 93.4 degrees (4.0 degrees above average) 

Average low temperature: 72.9 degrees (2.5 degrees above average) 

Warmest temperature: 102 degrees (22nd) 

Coolest temperature: 64 degrees (3rd, 4th) 

Heating Degrees Days: 0 (0.0 above average)

Cooling Degree Days: 553 (106 above average) 

Records set or tied: Multiple daily high temperature records were set or tied in June, including the 16th (100), 17th (100), 21st (101), 22nd (102), and 25th (101). In addition, a daily record warm minimum temperature was set on the 17th (80), which also is the warmest low temperature on record for the month of June.

Comments: 21 days saw high temperatures meet or exceed 90 degrees, which is 5.5 above normal. Six days met or exceeded 100 degrees, second most on record behind 1953 (nine). The average temperature for the month ranked 7th warmest June on record.

Precipitation 

Monthly total: 0.88 " (3.11" below average) 

Days with measurable precipitation: 6 (2.9 days below average) 

Wettest 24-hour period: 0.50" (6th) 

Snowfall: 0.0"

Records set or tied: None

Comments: The precipitation total for the month resulted in the 10th driest June on record. 

Miscellaneous 

Peak wind: Southwest/43 mph (6th) 

Average wind: 7.2 mph 

Average relative humidity: 59%

Average sky cover: 38%

 Click here for a daily statistical recap for Memphis International Airport.

 

Cirrus Weather Solutions / MemphisWeather.net, Bartlett, TN

Temperature 

Average temperature: 78.9 degrees 

Average high temperature: 91.4 degrees 

Average low temperature: 67.6 degrees 

Warmest temperature: 100.4 degrees (22nd) 

Coolest temperature: 57.3 degrees (4th) 

Comments: None 

Precipitation 

Monthly total: 1.25" (automated rain gauge), 1.34"(manual CoCoRaHS rain gauge) 

Days with measurable precipitation: 8

Wettest date: 0.75" (6th) (via automated gauge) 

Snowfall: 0.0"

Comments: None

Miscellaneous 

Peak wind: Southwest/21 mph (30th)

Average relative humidity: 70% 

Average barometric pressure: 29.99 in. Hg

Comments: None

Click here for a daily statistical recap for Bartlett, TN.

 

MWN Forecast Accuracy

MWN average temperature error: 1.97 degrees 

MWN forecast temperatures within 2 degrees of actual: 66% 

MWN average dewpoint error: 1.66 degrees 

MWN forecast dewpoints within 2 degrees of actual: 76% 

MWN's forecasts extend out five periods (2.5 days, or roughly 60 hours). Historical accuracy statistics can be found here.

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Complete MWN Forecast: MemphisWeather.net on the mobile web or via the MWN mobile app 

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Typical Independence Day weather as excessive heat builds back this week

How we got here...

Before we dig into the forecast, a quick recap of June. Everything was going along just dandy for the first 10 days or so of the month - near average temperatures and a few rainmakers. Then, the midsummer heat dome developed... and basically never left. The month ended as the 7th warmest on record with SIX days that reached 100 degrees (second most on record). Rain chances also dropped off under unrelenting high pressure and the month ended as the 10th driest on record with less than an inch of rain officially recorded.

June was highlighted by oppressive heat and lack of appreciable rainfall across the Mid-South. Just how hot and dry was it? Here's a look at some statistics from our four official climate stations and the latest drought update. #tnwx #arwx #mswx #mowx pic.twitter.com/UKPcyYAVgT

— NWS Memphis (@NWSMemphis) July 2, 2022

Where we are...

As we ended turned the calendar from June to July, upper level high pressure eased just a bit and some were lucky enough to get some much-needed precipitation from scattered thunderstorms. But many were not. And as he head into the Independence Day holiday, the weather is shaping up to be much like you would expect - hot and humid with a very small rain chance - as the heat dome rebuilds for the week ahead. 

4th of July Forecast

An upper level disturbance (the faint remnants of a tropical low that deluged parts of the upper TX coast late last week), is weakening over Arkansas and rain chances are dwindling with it today. That sets the stage for high pressure aloft to rebuild heading into the holiday and week ahead. Temperatures have remained hot the past few days, but with the disturbance less of a factor, there won't be a lot of cloud cover to shield the sun's rays and we'll easily be back in the mid 90s for July 4th. In addition, humidity has started to return as dewpoints climb into the low to mid 70s, resulting in heat indices that climb back to near the danger level of 105 degrees. A Heat Advisory has been issued for Monday. Only a very small chance of a shower exists in the afternoon, but Independence Day celebrations in the evening should be unaffected and the weather will feel uncomfortably like July. 

Where we're headed...

Heading into the week, as high pressure at the surface and aloft dominate, looks for continued heat and humidity with almost no chance of rain. Highs soar to near 100 by Wednesday and stay there through the end of the week, while overnight lows only drop below 80 outside of the city, and even there just barely. It's a persistence forecast through Friday unfortunately, so expect Heat Advisories, and possibly Warnings, to continue throughout the week.. Next weekend, there are signs of an approaching cold front, though I'm not sure (and the models aren't either) that it'll actually make it here. What it should do is increase rain chances a bit for Saturday, though highs remain in the upper half of the 90s all weekend it appears. 

The European model forecast for pressure trends at about 18,000 feet shows anomalously high pressure building over the Mid-South early this week and continuing until next weekend, when some relief is forecast. This means very hot weather and a strong "lid" on upward motion that causes precipitation to form. Basically - very hot and dry. (WeatheBell)

It looks like summer is here to stay, and it won't be kind for the foreseeable future! Please ensure that you are practicing good heat safety, drinking plenty of water, staying cool in the hottest part of the day, and checking on those that need your assistance - the young, old, and your pets. The longer the heat lasts, the more likely it is to succumb to heat exhaustion or heat stroke if proper precautions are not taken. 

Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

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Follow MWN on Facebook and Twitter for routine updates and the latest info!
Complete MWN Forecast: MemphisWeather.net on the mobile web or via the MWN mobile app
Download our iPhone or Android apps, featuring StormWatch+ severe weather alerts!

MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador

Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder