Beautiful holiday weekend ahead as high pressure arrives

We're finally putting this week's wet weather in the rearview mirror as the unofficial start of summer - Memorial Day weekend - arrives. In fact, the three-day weekend looks fabulous with sunny skies, warm but not overly hot temperatures, and acceptable humidity levels. The dry spell that starts today continues for nearly a week as temperatures warm back to near 90 by mid-week before the next front approaches.

Friday: upper low spins by to our north

Trailing the wet system that departed yesterday morning, an upper level low pressure system has been moving slowly by to our north. Today, that low is pulling into the Ohio Valley with northwesterly wind aloft, which is bringing in additional cloud cover. Fortunately the clouds will keep their moisture aloft and rain chances are nearly nil. Those clouds, and a westerly breeze, will keep temperatures in check with highs in the mid 70s. By this evening, the clouds dissipate relatively quickly and wind becomes light. That will make for idea radiational cooling conditions, meaning we'll wake up to temperatures in the 50s on Saturday morning with the potential for some patchy fog thanks to saturated ground, light wind, and clear sky.

An upper level low pressure center will move off to the northeast over the next 24 hours, according to the European model. High pressure builds in for the coming week. (WeatherBell)

Memorial weekend: grill, swim, or work on the tan

We really couldn't ask for a much better weekend to kick off summer! Abundant sunshine is expected throughout the three-day holiday with slowly moderating temperatures. Though Saturday starts cool in the upper 50s, the afternoon will be pleasant with highs in the low 80s and a very slight south breeze. That south wind increases a bit on Sunday but sunshine remains. Morning lows will be a bit warmer in the mid 60s with highs in the mid to upper 80s. 

By Monday, the warming trend moves the mercury up a couple more degrees, but still shy of 90, with mostly sunny skies and a south breeze. Dewpoints remain near 60, which is comfortable for this time of year. The sunshine will be great for working on those pasty legs and arms and taking a dip in the pool, though the cooler mornings and recent rain might mean it's a tad chilly yet!

Mid-week: dry and hot

If you have to go back to work Tuesday, it'll be a good day to be in the air conditioning. Temperatures warm to 90 degrees in the afternoon with mostly sunny skies and a south breeze. By Wednesday, moisture levels increase, resulting in stickier conditions and increasing high clouds. A stray shower can't be ruled out, but it should be mainly dry. Highs will be in the lower 90s.

End of the week: cold front arrives

Though still about a week out, computer models are indicating the next cold front arrives on Thursday. I've increased rain chances into the "scattered" range for thunderstorms during the day with slightly cooler temperatures due to rain and cloud cover. A lingering shower could stick around Friday, but the front appears to dry up and move off to our south. Temperatures drop back to the lower to mid 80s with lows in the 60s. Overall, with one rain day over the coming week and not excessively hot conditions, there's not a lot to complain about for the coming week!

In closing: I want to proactively extend great appreciation for my team, led by meteorologist Richard, for taking the reins of MWN over the coming week. My wife and I will be celebrating our 25th wedding anniversary in a "tropical climate" next week. You'll be in good hands, and we'll be recharging for the next 25! 

When I return, the first order of business will be onboarding two brand new interns, who I look forward to introducing you to! Be safe and keep those who gave everything for our country in your thoughts this Memorial Day weekend!

Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

----
Follow MWN on Facebook and Twitter for routine updates and the latest info!
Complete MWN Forecast: MemphisWeather.net on the mobile web or via the MWN mobile app
Download our iPhone or Android apps, featuring StormWatch+ severe weather alerts!

MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador

Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder

Hot and dry weather turns cooler and wetter starting Sunday

Another warm weekend with near record-breaking temperatures, but we finally get a break next week! After an especially warm first three weeks of the month, we finally see some cooler temperatures behind this weekend’s showers. Starting on Sunday and leading into most of next week, we’ll see temperatures right around average, with some days even below. This decrease in temperatures doesn’t come without consequences however; we’ll see an increased chance for showers and maybe a thunderstorm or two come mid-week. 

Friday/Saturday: Will this heat ever end?

Short answer: yes. Long answer: More near-record temperatures – highs in the low 90s – kick off this weekend along with high winds! A warm and windy southerly breeze will help keep temperatures up along with the sun shining through a few clouds. Summer temps only start off the weekend though as a "cold" front moves through on Sunday, bringing cooler, near-average temperatures for the week ahead.

HRRR model from 1pm Saturday to 7am Sunday showing overnight showers and thunderstorms that  continue throughout Sunday. (WeatherBell)

Saturday evening/Sunday

Chances of isolated thunderstorms increase Saturday afternoon but showers and thunderstorms are expected starting Saturday evening and throughout Sunday. Fans of the Storm Prediction Center Convective Outlooks have likely noticed that we are right on the cusp between a Slight (level 2) and Marginal (level 1) Risk for Saturday night. If things do take a turn for the worse however, and stronger storms take shape, we’re looking at main threats of small hail, high winds, and heavy rain (a typical May thunderstorm). Starting Saturday night and heading into Sunday, we start to see temperatures fall, with highs on Sunday peaking in the low 70s! 

SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook: Most of the metro appears to be in a Slight Risk (level 2) with some towns to the east of Memphis in a Marginal Risk (level 1) for severe weather.

Monday: A break from the rain

Temperatures stay in the 70s again on Monday, but conditions dry up, as rain chances decrease to start a new work week. Clouds will decrease, but a slight temperature increase will start on Monday as temperatures are expected to reach the upper 70s. They will increase a little more in the days following, though will still be cooler than the near-record temps we’ve had the rest of the month.

Tuesday/Wednesday

Temperatures increase and will peak in the 80s on Tuesday and Wednesday as more rain comes into the region. Showers are likely throughout both days and isolated thunderstorms, some of which may be severe, are not out of the question. These days will bring the highest temperatures of the week, likely only reaching the mid 80s as clouds and rain will keep higher temperatures away. 

Thursday/Friday

As of right now, temperatures look like they’ll decrease a bit by the end of next week, and chances for rain diminish. Highs towards the end of the week will be in the 70s, and overnight lows will stay in the 60s. There’s a slight chance for showers early on Thursday, but otherwise expect a few clouds, lots of sun, and below-average temperatures to cap off this upcoming week!

All in all, this week will bring more pleasant and spring-like conditions, like more normal temperatures and lots of rain. A cold front to start off and a high pressure system moving in by the end of the week will keep temperatures in the 70s most days, and in the 60s every night. Be prepared for lots of rain and remember that severe weather has not been ruled out yet!

Natalie Naquin
MWN Meteorologist Intern

----
Follow MWN on Facebook and Twitter for routine updates and the latest info!
Complete MWN Forecast: MemphisWeather.net on the mobile web or via the MWN mobile app
Download our iPhone or Android apps, featuring StormWatch+ severe weather alerts!

MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador

Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder