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Friday, October 27, 2023

We interrupt late summer for a taste of early winter!

According to a recent poll we conducted on X, nearly 70% of you are ready for late summer warmth to end and "deep fall" to begin.


Well, your wish is my command! But first, let's try and get a little drought relief after suffering through less than two inches of rain since September 1. Unfortunately, rain chances are increasing over a fairly busy Halloween/fall fest weekend!

The most recent Drought Index map shows the majority of the metro in a severe (D2) drought after weeks of very little rain. (UNL)

Pre-frontal warmth and rain

A seriously cold Canadian front will ooze through the Mid-South late this weekend. However, it will be close enough the next 48 hours to bring off and on rain chances. We'll still be on the warm side of it until at least midday, or maybe evening, on Sunday so mild temperatures continue, but not quite the 80s we have had the past week. Rain will be spotty through mid to late afternoon Saturday before the next organized round of showers moves in and blankets the area Saturday evening. You'll want a Plan B for any outdoor activities starting at dinner time Saturday. Temperatures should remain mostly in the 70s after starting in the mid 60s Saturday morning. 

NWS forecast rainfall amounts through Monday show the potential for 1-2" across the metro with higher amounts over AR where the front stalls this weekend. (WPC/WxBell) 

Showers will continue to be scattered Sunday ahead of the front, then become increasingly likely along and behind it as we head into Sunday night. We could stay in the 60s Sunday, but at best we'll see lower 70s if there are long enough breaks in the showers.

Arrival of Canadian air

As cold air moves in Sunday night, rain continues to fall, lasting until probably mid-day Monday. And boy will it be COLD after we've been acclimated to 70s and 80s lately! (No, not cold enough for s**w though!) Monday morning we'll wake up to showers, a cold north wind, and temperatures in the mid 40s. And with rain still around and clouds not departing until late in the day, we may well not see temperatures rise at all as cold air continues to advect in on breezy north wind!

Expected high temperatures (not lows!) on Monday (NWS)

The rest of the week, starting Tuesday morning, will feel more like December or January despite abundant sunshine. Morning lows will likely drop to freezing - even in the city - while some upper 20s are possible in coldest outlying areas on Wednesday and Thursday mornings. High temperatures look to be near 50 degrees  Halloween Day and Wednesday before rebounding a bit on Thursday, then back into the low 60s by week's end. Bundle up those trick-or-treaters as wind chills will be in the 30s Tuesday evening! 

Probability of freezing temperatures Wednesday morning (NWS)

Probability of a hard freeze (28°) on Thursday morning. (NWS)

Potential for wind gusts over 25 mph is high on Halloween Day. Paired with max temperatures near 50, it will be a COLD night of trick-or treating! (NWS)

If you have outdoor winterizing that needs to be done - this weekend is the time to do it! Hose bibs should be covered, exterior doors sealed, and sensitive plants brought into the garage or indoors for a few days next week. Fortunately, the cold snap should only last a few days, as we'll be back to near normal (that's highs in the upper 60s and lows in the mid 40s) as we head into next weekend.
Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

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Follow MWN on Facebook and Twitter for routine updates and the latest info!
Complete MWN Forecast: MemphisWeather.net on the mobile web or via the MWN mobile app
Download our iPhone or Android apps, featuring StormWatch+ severe weather alerts!
MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder

Wednesday, October 11, 2023

Solar eclipse "warm-up act" will occur on Saturday

While the "Great American Eclipse" will be the big story as far as solar events go in the next several months, this weekend's annular eclipse for part of the country, and partial for the rest of us, will be a very nice warm-up act! 


Occurring over a three-hour window from late morning through early afternoon on Saturday, October 14, over 60% of the sun's disk will be obscured by the moon at noon as it passes directly between the sun and Earth. 


The April 2024 Great American Eclipse will be a total eclipse, in which the entirety of the sun will be obscured by the moon. However, this Saturday's eclipse will be an "annular" eclipse for those in the western United States. Annular refers to the fact that, while the moon passes directly in front of the sun like in a total eclipse, it is too small (due to its distance from our perspective) to completely block the sun, thus a "ring of fire" is visible around the outside of the moon. 

A "ring of fire" produced by an annular eclipse. Photo by Ferdinandh Cabrera/AFP via Getty Images)

For those who are outside the path of totality, a partial eclipse will be visible with a "Pac-Man shaped" sun as the moon passes in front of it. The last annular eclipse visible in the continental U.S. was in 2012, but the next one won't be until 2048! (Of course, we will have a total eclipse crossing the U.S. just 6 months from now!)



For the Memphis metro, the eclipse will start about 10:30am, peak at maximum obscuration of 61% at noon, and finish at 1:35pm. Because it is not a total eclipse, viewers absolutely should NOT look directly at the sun to observe the eclipse, unless they are wearing appropriately-rated eye protection such as rated eclipse glasses. You can also use an indirect method like a pinhole camera that can be made at home with the kids! Here is a great article covering several ways to enjoy the eclipse safely.

The forecast looks good for Saturday with a cold front arriving Friday night that should clear out by Saturday morning, leaving mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies and a northwest breeze with temps in the mid to upper 60s during the eclipse. 


More information on the annular eclipse can be found at EarthSky.orgGreatAmericanEclipse.com and NASA's Scientific Visualization Studio.

Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

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Follow MWN on Facebook and Twitter for routine updates and the latest info!
Complete MWN Forecast: MemphisWeather.net on the mobile web or via the MWN mobile app
Download our iPhone or Android apps, featuring StormWatch+ severe weather alerts!
MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder

Saturday, October 7, 2023

September 2023 Climate Report for Memphis, TN

September Climate Recap

The month of September was generally very warm, and averaged more than a degree and a half above normal. But Mid-Southerners experienced a nice reprieve from the heat during the middle third of the month as "false fall" brought low dewpoints and fairly pleasant conditions following a strong front on the 7th. However, summer returned for much of the last third of the month as temperatures rose above 90 degrees once again on multiple days. No records were set despite the late season heat.


Early signs of drought that began in the Mississippi Delta spread north across the metro during the month as precipitation ended well below average during the climatologically driest month of the year. Most precipitation fell on just a few days in September, with thunderstorms occurring on the 4th, 6th, and 20th. Otherwise rainfall was spotty to non-existent. Storms resulted in Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in north MS (on the 6th) and 20th (Shelby/Tipton Counties). A tree was downed in Memphis on the 20th and a few were taken down in north MS on the 6th. In addition, the Mississippi River at Memphis preliminarily set a new record low river stage at -10.97' on the 14th, a couple inches lower than the previous record set just last year.



Memphis International Airport, Memphis, TN

Temperature 
Average temperature: 77.7 degrees (1.7 degrees above average) 
Average high temperature: 87.8 degrees (1.8 degrees above average) 
Average low temperature: 67.6 degrees (1.7 degrees above average) 
Warmest temperature: 97 degrees (4th) 
Coolest temperature: 60 degrees (18th) 
Heating Degrees Days: 0 (7 below average)
Cooling Degree Days: 388 (53 above average) 
Records set or tied: None 
Comments: 11 days reached 90°, which is 0.8 days above average for the month of September

Precipitation 
Monthly total: 1.63" (1.40" below average) 
Days with measurable precipitation: 4 (3.1 days below average) 
Wettest 24-hour period: 0.97" (6th) 
Snowfall: None
Records set or tied: Record daily rainfall tied (0.97" on the 6th)
Comments: 92% of the month's rainfall fell on just two days

Miscellaneous 
Peak wind: Northwest/39 mph (6th) 
Average wind: 6.1 mph 
Average relative humidity: 63%
Average sky cover: 41%

 Click here for a daily statistical recap for Memphis International Airport.
 

MemphisWeather.net Headquarters, Bartlett, TN

Temperature 
Average temperature: 73.5 degrees 
Average high temperature: 86.8 degrees 
Average low temperature: 63.5 degrees 
Warmest temperature: 95.8 degrees (4th) 
Coolest temperature: 53.8 degrees (15th) 
Comments: None 

Precipitation 
Monthly total: 1.32" (automated rain gauge), 1.27" (CoCoRaHS rain gauge) 
Days with measurable precipitation: 5
Wettest date: 0.53" (12th) (via automated gauge) 
Snowfall: None
Comments: None

Miscellaneous 
Peak wind: South-southwest/18 mph (5th)
Average relative humidity: 76% 
Average barometric pressure: 30.02in. Hg
Comments: None

Click here for a daily statistical recap for Bartlett, TN.
 

MWN Forecast Accuracy

MWN average temperature error: 1.83 degrees 
MWN forecast temperatures within 2 degrees of actual: 76% 
MWN average dewpoint error: 1.77 degrees 
MWN forecast dewpoints within 2 degrees of actual: 79% 

MWN's forecasts extend out five periods (2.5 days, or roughly 60 hours). Historical accuracy statistics can be found here.

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Follow MWN on Facebook and Twitter for routine updates and the latest info!
Complete MWN Forecast: MemphisWeather.net on the mobile web or via the MWN mobile app
Download our iPhone or Android apps, featuring StormWatch+ severe weather alerts!
MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder

Tuesday, October 3, 2023

Here it comes - #ActualFall! How chilly will it get?

We're almost there!
This recent run of hot weather, while not record-breaking by official measures, certainly has been unwelcome! Our typical last 90-degree day for the summer is September 23. Seems we've blown right past that! I fully expect that today was the last day of 90 degrees for 2023. Fortunately, typical summertime humidity levels have not accompanied the recent heat wave, which has allowed morning and late evenings to be somewhat comfortable. But I know what just about everyone is looking forward to now!


Here comes our first "pumpkin spice latte" front! 

The surface weather map for Friday morning shows a cold front moving through the Mid-South with high pressure dropping out of the Canadian Rockies, which will build into the region this weekend!

While the "real" cold front won't arrive until Friday morning, a trough of low pressure will move into the area Thursday. Preceding that feature, cloud cover on Wednesday will keep temps in the mid 80s, then the trough brings our first decent chance of rain in a couple of weeks on Thursday. The clouds and showers will result in temperatures in the 70s on Thursday, but with pretty humid air as well. 

Fortunately, severe weather parameters are meager and we may not even hear any thunder. Rain amounts won't be enough to put a dent in ongoing drought conditions, perhaps only producing a half inch or so of precipitation. Areas to our west in AR will get some much-needed rainfall, as well as thunderstorms ahead of the front. 


As the big front arrives Friday morning, it'll push any leftover rain chances to our east and cool air of Canadian origin rushes in for the weekend, resulting in the coolest days we've experienced since late April, and sunny skies! Get those sweatshirts, sweaters, and long pants out, as we'll be waking up to temperatures in the 40s to near 50 Saturday. Sunday and Monday mornings! Highs will stay in the 60s this weekend before rebounding back into the 70s next week. 


Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

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Follow MWN on Facebook and Twitter for routine updates and the latest info!
Complete MWN Forecast: MemphisWeather.net on the mobile web or via the MWN mobile app
Download our iPhone or Android apps, featuring StormWatch+ severe weather alerts!
MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder