Wednesday, March 8, 2017

We interrupt spring for this special bulletin...

For those who have ever asked, or have followed along at home for some time, you know that I typically say "we're never out of the woods until we get past the first weekend in March" when asked about s--- potential.

I'm changing one word in that response (even when winter is top 5 for warmth) - "we're never out of the woods until we get past the first second weekend in March."

OK, so I'm not (currently) forecasting s--- for Memphis, but when it appears that there's a decent chance somewhere in west TN on the second weekend in March, with flora in full bloom, my response changes.

I've been watching the mid-range models (every run, every day) for a few days now as they consistently predict a swath of accumulating s--- to our north late on Saturday into Saturday night. With each run, the "s--- zone" sinks further south, consistently between runs and even between models (I'm looking at you GFS and European). It started in the Ohio Valley, then dropped into Kentucky, then to the KY/TN border. The morning model data now has the southern edge of the accumulation well into TN.

Below is what the GFS run from this morning shows for the general area of concern (or joy). DETAILS WILL CHANGE! I purposefully didn't include amounts on the map because there's no predicting that 72 hours out, especially in March. I just want you to see what I'm seeing as far as potential.

The map shows the accumulation missing Memphis. Of course it does, because... ;-)

So, will it s--- here?  I honestly can't look you in the eye and unequivocally say "no."
Will it stick? I doubt it.
Will this change? See the bold ALL-CAPS response above.

Remember, we're still over 72 hours out. In those 3 days we'll have short-term and high-resolution models picking up on this system with much greater detail, plus at least 18 more runs of the GFS/European to monitor (I'll see every one of them.)

Here's what you CAN expect: more spring tomorrow (75°), rain and a few storms tomorrow night, cooler but pleasant Friday (63°), a no-kidding, rainy (especially afternoon) cold day on Saturday (like in the 40s cold), precipitation leaving Saturday night as temperatures fall into the 30s, then several days of cool weather (50-55° for highs and 30s for low) for the first half of spring break. I knew this was coming of course, and planned a family trip to the beach next week.

If you're staying in town, enjoy the "respite" from above normal temperatures! :-) And stay tuned (social media and web links below) - we'll be talking more about Saturday in the coming days.

Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

(The use of the s--- word, outside of graphics, was not used in this post. And no baby seals were harmed in it's authoring.)

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