Wednesday, October 12, 2016

Good news / bad news in the forecast

Temperatures are back in the mid 80s again as the calendar indicates we're nearing the halfway point in the month of October and average daytime highs drop into the mid 70s. Many of you are asking "when will this end??" I have some good news and a little bad news.

The good news: The mid 80s end after today!

 The bad news: But only for a couple of days.

More good news: A more significant pattern shift looks to arrive by the middle of next week that could end multi-day runs in the mid 80s for some time!

Even more glass-half-full news: Even with 80s in the afternoons, you've gotta admit that the mornings and evenings have been pretty pleasant thanks to lower dewpoints that arrive in the fall. PLUS, we'll be getting some much-needed rain to end this week!


A cold front will sink south into the region later today and stall just to the south of the metro on Thursday and Friday. A few showers are possible early Thursday as the front moves through. However, even though you'll see a fair amount of rain on radar to our north later today into tonight, most of it will dry up before reaching the metro as the front loses steam and its best moisture and energy will skirt by us to the north.

Rainfall is expected to stay mainly north of the metro with the cold front Thursday morning. A few showers are possible but don't get your hopes up. Total precipitation through early Thursday, according to the NWS is shown.

The highest rain chances, and they'll be fairly small, will be north of the 35th Parallel. (A note of explanation: too many people say the "I-40 Corridor." I decided that the 35th Parallel, or 35° North latitude, which is basically the TN/MS state line, sounds cooler. So I used it.) 

The good news is that the cloud cover from the front will keep temperatures in check Thursday - how about mid 70s instead of mid 80s?


Late Thursday night into Friday, an upper level disturbance in the force will move along the front and bring us perhaps our best rain chances in quite some time (I've recorded just 0.13" total since September 16th at MWN in Bartlett). Scattered showers are expected from early in the day until probably mid-afternoon Friday. The system won't bring a deluge of rain, but could double or perhaps triple our total precipitation from the past month (which honestly isn't saying a whole lot, but would certainly be welcome!). With any luck, rain will be gone by Friday night football kickoff. Temperatures will be comfortable on Friday with highs in the lower to mid 70s.

Better rain chances arrive on Friday with most places likely getting 1/4" or more, according to the NWS.

Weekend and Beyond

This weekend, we'll be back to - you guessed it - the mid 80s with increasing sunshine. That warmth will last until at least the early part of next week. In addition to the warmer temperatures, humidity will also be on the rise, leading to warmer morning lows (probably near 70 early next week). As alluded to above though, a fall front and potential upper level patter shift by the middle of next week looks to drop us back to the 70s, even with sunshine, and perhaps FINALLY lead us into a more autumnal pattern as we close out October. One can only hope!

Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

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