Friday, September 30, 2016

4 things to know about the weather for the first week of October

We're moving out of a very dry (and hot until this past week) September into October, which typically means fall begins in earnest. Average highs drop from 80° to 70° over the course of the month, record highs drop into the 80s, and morning lows in the 40s become more likely, especially the latter half of October. With a taste of dry air and fall weather this past week, what does the first week of October bring? Here are 4 things you need to know:

1. A gorgeous weekend is ahead! Highs will generally be near 80° or so with lows near 60° in the city and back into the 50s outside the loop. Clouds will stick around, especially during the daylight hours this afternoon and tomorrow, but more sun will be expected on "Sun"-day. Humidity levels remain comfortable as dewpoints stay in the 50s. Open the windows in the evenings and pop that sunroof! There are also plenty of outdoor activities that you can take advantage of.

2. The cool temperatures of the past few days will give way to warmer air next week. Fortunately, we're not talking about a string of 90s, but mid to upper 80s for the middle of next week will be warm enough as humidity creeps back up just a a bit as well. Dry weather continues.

High temperatures for Wednesday, October 5, according to the American GFS model. (WxBell)

3. A cold front will move through mid-to-late next week (likely Thursday), which will bring our next chance of rain and possibly a few thunderstorms. It looks to be a quick hitter though, so no prolonged rainfall is expected to help with our recent deficit. Behind it, slightly cooler and drier air again works its way into the Mid-South.

The surface forecast for next Thursday morning from the NWS shows a cold front moving toward the Mid-South, which will provide our next chance of rain. (NOAA/NWS/WPC)

4. And as a bonus, outside the Mid-South, eyes are on Major Hurricane Matthew which is churning it's way through the southern Caribbean Sea. It's moving west off the coast of South America (yes, that is pretty far south for a Caribbean storm), but will make a hard right turn and head north towards Jamaica and Cuba early next week then into the Bahamas by the middle of next week.

Latest forecast track for Hurricane Matthew from the National Hurricane Center
Significant impacts are possible in all of those locations as no noticeable weakening is expected until it interacts with the island of Cuba. It remains to be seen how much effect Cuba has on it. After the Bahamas, the east coast of the U.S. needs to keep a close eye on Matthew's track. Some models take it towards the Outer Banks of North Carolina, then turn it east, but it is still a long ways out from that. More detail can be found on the MWN Tropical Page.

Based on the output of many meteorological computer models, the potential paths of Matthew are shown above. These "spaghetti plots" change routinely and are not all possible options.
Enjoy the fall weekend!

Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

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