Sunday, June 5, 2016

Details on a dry (finally!) and warm week ahead

After a couple of weeks of active weather, the Mid-South is overdue for a tranquil pattern - and we're getting it this week!

High pressure will keep the region dry with reduced humidity over the coming week. One weak high pressure system will influence the weather early this week, followed by a cold front on Tuesday that then ushers in stronger high pressure with origins in Canada.

Temperatures will remain warm Monday under mostly sunny skies. Dewpoints near 60 will mean comfortable conditions despite temperatures in the upper 80s. The cold front moves through early Tuesday with maybe a few clouds and an increase in north wind, otherwise basically unnoticed. What we will notice however, is cooler morning lows (50s in some outlying areas on Wednesday morning) and a slight reduction in daytime highs for the mid-week period (mid 80s).

The surface map Tuesday morning shows a cold front passing through the region with high pressure building in from Canada behind it. Much cooler weather is expected in the northern U.S., while we will enjoy lower humidity and a warm, sunny days.

However by Thursday, that high pressure system slides to our east and takes root over the southeastern U.S., causing temperatures to rise again. In fact, a massive ridge of high pressure builds over the middle of the nation late in the week as well, reinforcing the warm air.

The upper air pattern (at the jet stream level) for late week shows a very large and strong high pressure ridge dominating much of the U.S. This will reinforce above normal temperatures heading into the weekend.

Our first string of 90s is expected to start Friday with dewpoints also beginning to rise a bit, making it feel more uncomfortable by next weekend. Heat indices will likely top 100° by Sunday as Gulf moisture increases, also sparking our first chances of afternoon thunderstorms in a week. Long-range trends indicate that above normal temperatures will likely continue into the middle of June. For a complete look at the upcoming week, see the MWN Forecast here or in our mobile app.

High probabilities of above normal temperatures continue through June 11-15, according to the Climate Prediction Center. In the Mid-South, there is a 70% chance that temperatures will be above average for this period.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Colin has formed in the southern Gulf of Mexico today, just off the Yucatan Peninsula, and is moving north. It will curve right tonight and head towards a landfall in the Big Bend area of Florida Monday night, then quickly move across northern Florida and parallel the Carolina coastline on Tuesday before heading out to sea Tuesday night.

The forecast track for Tropical Storm Colin that will bring heavy rain, wind, and minor storm surge to Florida tomorrow.

You might look at the calendar and see that it's still the first week of June and we are already on the letter C in storm names. Is this unusual? You bet. The first two storms, Alex and Bonnie, both formed "out of season" (Bonnie just barely, a week ago also affecting the Carolina coastline), which makes Colin the earliest "C" storm in the Atlantic since 1887. Does this mean an unusually active 2016 season? Not necessarily. The Hurricane Center predicts an average year, but that would be more active than the past couple of years that ended quieter than usual.

Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

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