Sunday, April 24, 2016

Time for the A/C, but how about our storm chances this week?

A beautiful spring weekend is about in the books; hope you got a chance to get out and enjoy it! A little warmth crept into the area as high pressure shifted to our east, allowing warm southerly air to move in. With almost no cloud cover, highs reached 80°+ each day this weekend, but humidity levels were still comfortable and morning lows were very pleasant (in the 50s).

The surface map for Sunday night shows high pressure on the east coast bringing warm, southerly flow into the Mid-South, while a storm system organizes in the Plains.

Monday and Tuesday

As we head into the last week of April and towards the first weekend of Memphis in May, the warming trend will continue with a few chances of thunderstorms from the middle of the week into next weekend. Starting early in the week, dry weather continues as the focus for strong to severe thunderstorm activity focuses on the central and southern Plains. With increasing humidity, expect cloud cover to also be more prevalent than the weekend, though partly cloudy will suffice for Monday and partly sunny for Tuesday. Look for highs to reach the lower to mid 80s with lows in the 60s and warm southerly wind throughout. A shower or thunderstorm is possible Tuesday, but most areas will remain dry.

By Tuesday evening, a few showers or thunderstorms will be possible in the area, while severe storms are expected in the Plains. The cold front to our west will move into the region Wednesday bringing high chances of thunderstorms and perhaps a chance of severe weather.


The central U.S. storm system will make a push east on Wednesday which is our next best chance for thunderstorms. The Storm Prediction Center has a 15% chance of severe weather (equivalent to a Slight Risk, or category 2/5) for areas west of the Mississippi River on Wednesday. However, that could easily change as both the American GFS and European models indicate storms could roll into the Memphis metro late Wednesday afternoon and evening, which is when instability is maximized due to being during peak heating hours. The PM hours Wednesday will be worth monitoring, with storms possibly continuing into the overnight hours. It's too early to define exact storm threats and timing, so stay tuned.

The Storm Prediction Center's severe weather outlook for Wednesday indicates possible severe weather from MO/IL south across the western Mid-South into northeast TX.  This scenario will bear watching as the outlook are will be adjusted daily as the system draws near. Severe weather threats are TBD at this time.

Thursday and Friday

Though the medium-range models disagreed a bit the past few days, they are now converging on a solution that would keep Thursday and perhaps most of Friday dry as weak high pressure builds in behind Wednesday's system. Expect some sun, but likely not "sunny" days with continued warm temperatures, probably in the 80s for highs and 60s for lows.

Next weekend

As we head towards next weekend and Beale Street Music Fest, the crystal ball gets a little fuzzy. Long-range solutions from the computer models offer various solutions, but it appears that scattered thunderstorms will be possible again late in the week as a warm front pull back north across the region. Then, things get even more murky as to when the next cold front moves through, ranging from Saturday PM (European model) to Sunday PM (GFS/Canadian models). For now, we'll call next weekend "unsettled" with daily chances of thunderstorms. The one thing we are fairly certain of is that it won't be as cool as last year's Music Fest. Hopefully it just won't turn in to another Memphis in Mud!

As many of you know, MWN is the Official Weather Partner of Memphis in May, so we'll be keeping a close eye on the weekend and will also keep you abreast of changing conditions, including updates from Tom Lee Park during Music Fest. Stay up to date with our latest thoughts on storm chances via the human-powered MWN Forecast on our mobile apps or on the web.

Speaking of which, the Android app has a new update out (with iPhone releasing in the upcoming week) which adds a couple of features, including the ability to read these blog posts within the app and adding Drummonds, TN to our current conditions providers. We also updated some "under the hood" stuff that will keep StormWatch+ on top of its game. With severe weather season upon us, we strongly recommend you consider having a smartphone option for severe weather alerting and our StormWatch+ service is one of the best! Download links can be found below.

Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

Follow MWN on Facebook, Twitter, and Google+ Visit on the web or on your mobile phone. Download our iPhone or Android apps, featuring StormWatch+ severe weather alerts!
MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder

No comments: