Saturday, February 6, 2016

January 2016 Climate Data and Forecast Accuracy

January Recap

After a very warm end to 2015, the pattern shifted to start the new year and January temperatures ended up almost exactly "average" for the month. However, by daily averages, a relatively cold month was actually offset by about a week's worth of well above average days spread throughout the month. Precipitation was well below normal with one significant winter threat on the 22nd that ended up producing a coating of snow and freezing rain across the southern metro and up to 3" in the far northern metro. Thunderstorms rumbled through the metro on the 9th, which was the wettest day of the month and produced a couple of small hail and high wind reports, and on the 21st.

Graphic produced by NWS-Memphis showing approximate snowfall amounts on January 22.

Memphis International Airport, Memphis, TN

Average temperature: 41.1 degrees (0.1 degrees below average)
Average high temperature: 50.4 degrees (0.6 degrees above average)
Average low temperature: 31.8 degrees (0.8 degrees below average)
Warmest temperature: 73 degrees (31st)
Coolest temperature: 18 degrees (11th)
Records set or tied: Tied record warm minimum temperature: 61 degrees (January 31).
Comments: None.

Monthly total: 2.27" (1.71" below average)
Days with measurable precipitation: 7 (2.5 days below normal)
Wettest 24-hour period: 1.31" (9th)
Total Snowfall: 0.3"
Records set or tied: None
Comments: Despite only 0.3" of snow at the airport, surrounding areas, especially in Tipton County, received nearly 3" of snow on the 22nd.

Peak wind: Southwest/40 mph (31st)
Average wind: 8.8 mph
Average relative humidity: 64%
Average sky cover: 50%

Click here for a daily statistical recap for Memphis International Airport.

Cirrus Weather Solutions /, Bartlett, TN

Average temperature: 39.8 degrees
Average high temperature: 49.7 degrees
Average low temperature: 29.8 degrees
Warmest temperature: 72.0 degrees (31st)
Coolest temperature: 17.4 degrees (11th)
Comments: None.

Monthly total: 2.58" (automated rain gauge), 2.73" (manual CoCoRaHS rain gauge)
Days with measurable precipitation: 7
Wettest date: 1.24" (9th) (via automated gauge)
Total Snowfall: 0.9" (22nd)
Comments: None

Peak wind: South/30 mph (31st)
Average relative humidity: 76%

Click here for a daily statistical recap for Bartlett, TN.

MWN Forecast Accuracy

MWN average temperature error: 2.82 degrees
MWN forecast temperatures within 2 degrees of actual: 58%
MWN average dewpoint error: 2.32 degrees
MWN forecast dewpoints within 2 degrees of actual: 63%

MWN's forecasts extend out five periods (2.5 days, or roughly 60 hours). Historical accuracy statistics can be found here.

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