Sunday, November 8, 2015

October 2015 Climate Data and Forecast Accuracy

October Recap

Continuing the warm weather trend, October was nearly as much above average as September (over 2 degrees), despite a couple of cool periods, including the start of the month. The month was also drier than average, especially through the first three weeks, with nearly all of the monthly rainfall occurring in the last week of the month. This allowed the drought index to briefly reach "abnormally dry" levels before rain picked up late in the month. For the year, the average temperature at Memphis International Airport is 65.8°, or 0.1° below average. Precipitation for 2015 is up to 37.73", which is 4.72" below average, or 89% of normal.

There was no severe weather in the Memphis metro during the month of October. In fact, no thunderstorms were reported at the airport for the second consecutive month.

Memphis International Airport, Memphis, TN

Average temperature: 66.3 degrees (2.2 degrees above average)
Average high temperature: 76.5 degrees (2.1 degrees above average)
Average low temperature: 56.0 degrees (2.2 degrees above average)
Warmest temperature: 93 degrees (15th)
Coolest temperature: 44 degrees (18th)
Records set or tied: The high temperature of 93° on the 15th was 5 degrees warmer than the previous record daily high (2007) and also the latest occurrence of 93° or higher ever recorded, by one week (October 8, 2007 - 95°). In addition, the high of 59° on the 3rd was the coolest high temperature recorded on that date, also by 5 degrees. The low temperature of 69° on the 23rd tied 2001 for the warmest minimum temperature on that date.
Comments: None

Monthly total: 2.44" (1.54" below average)
Days with measurable precipitation: 7 (0.5 day below normal)
Wettest 24-hour period: 0.74" (27th)
Total Snowfall: None
Records set or tied: None
Comments: Only 0.05" of rain fell from the 1st through 23rd worsening drought conditions in the area until beneficial rain fell in the last week of the month.

Peak wind: 30 mph (on 3 days)
Average wind: 7.3 mph
Average relative humidity: 61%
Average sky cover: 50%

Click here for a daily statistical recap for Memphis International Airport.

Cirrus Weather Solutions /, Bartlett, TN

Average temperature: 62.6 degrees
Average high temperature: 76.7 degrees
Average low temperature: 50.8 degrees
Warmest temperature: 92.0 degrees (15th)
Coolest temperature: 35.0 degrees (18th)
Comments: The warmest and coldest temperatures for the month had a difference of 57 degrees and were set about 60 hours apart. Temperature data from the 27th and 31st were unavailable due to sensor malfunction.

Monthly total: 2.46" (automated rain gauge), 2.55" (manual CoCoRaHS rain gauge)
Days with measurable precipitation: 10
Wettest date: 0.73" (28th) (via automated gauge)
Total Snowfall: None
Comments: None

Peak wind: Northwest/19 mph (1st)
Average relative humidity: 70%

Click here for a daily statistical recap for Bartlett, TN.

MWN Forecast Accuracy

MWN average temperature error: 2.71 degrees
MWN forecast temperatures within 2 degrees of actual: 56%
MWN average dewpoint error: 1.79 degrees
MWN forecast dewpoints within 2 degrees of actual: 74%

MWN's forecasts extend out five periods (2.5 days, or roughly 60 hours). Historical accuracy statistics can be found here.

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