Monday, October 5, 2015

Warmer weather returns, but the next front is on the horizon

For those who didn't like the cool fall weather over the weekend - whether it was because it was too early in the year or because no sun accompanied the chilly temps - you're in luck. Temperatures are climbing back to above normal readings for the rest of the week with a taste of late summer returning in the form of mid (and maybe even a few upper) 80s highs.

You can thank the departure of a large upper level low from the southeast U.S. (one that funneled tremendous moisture from Hurricane Joaquin into the Carolinas) and building high pressure for the climbing temps. In fact, much of the nation will be under upper level ridging between the lows over the Atlantic (one off the SE coast and one associated with Joaquin) and another low in the southwestern U.S. Fair weather, with a mix of clouds and sun, will dominate the rest of the week as those temps climb under the upper level ridge.

The upper level (35,000') map for this evening shows ridging over the Mid-South between low pressure in the Desert Southwest and over the east coast. 

As we head towards week's end, a front will sink south into the region. However, little upper level support accompanies it, so though clouds are expected, rain chances appear fairly minimal. Bad news for those who, even at this time of year, depend on some precipitation and haven't gotten much of it the past 30 days or so. Any rain chances would likely be highest from Friday to early Saturday.

Forecast rainfall for Thursday night through Saturday indicates very little precipitation expected across the Mid-South.
Following the front, somewhat cooler weather arrives again for the weekend, but only briefly as a ridge of high pressure re-builds and pushes temps back above normal for next week. The long-range outlook from NOAA for next week indicates a high likelihood of above average temperatures for a large portion of the nation.

NOAA's temperature probability map for week 2 (Oct. 13-19) shows a high probability of above average temps for most of the nation.
You can always get the latest forecast information, current conditions, radar, satellite, and severe weather outlooks via the MWN mobile apps for Android and iOS. Also be sure to check out our StormWatch+ severe weather notification service within the app!

Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

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