Friday, September 4, 2015

August 2015 Climate Data and Forecast Accuracy

August Recap

Temperatures were above normal the past few months but that trend reversed itself in August with a slightly cooler than average month, despite reaching 98° for the highest temperature of the month. In fact, most of the month saw daily temperatures within a few degrees of average (above or below), but a several days of well below normal temperatures from the 20th-28th contributed to the below normal monthly average.

Precipitation was above average for the driest month of the year climatologically, but was concentrated on just a few days. Rainfall of 2.61" on the 5th (a daily record) was about 1/4" short of the normal precipitation for the entire month. Through August, Memphis International Airport continues to narrow its annual rainfall deficit, which now stands at just 1.41", or about 96% of normal.

There was one severe weather day in August, which was the 5th. This day recorded the highest official wind gust for the month as well as record rainfall. Thunderstorms downed trees and power lines and heavy rainfall produced some areas of flash flooding in the metro.

Severe weather reports received by NWS-Memphis on August 5, 2015 in the metro.
Tree  symbols are downed trees, Green/blue symbols are flash flooding.

Memphis International Airport, Memphis, TN

Average temperature: 80.7 degrees (1.3 degrees below average)
Average high temperature: 90.4 degrees (0.9 degrees below average)
Average low temperature: 71.0 degrees (1.7 degrees below average)
Warmest temperature: 98 degrees (3rd, 4th)
Coolest temperature: 61 degrees (25th, 26th)
Records set or tied: None
Comments: None

Monthly total: 4.11" (1.23" above average)
Days with measurable precipitation: 6 (0.8 days below normal)
Wettest 24-hour period: 2.73" (5th-6th)
Total Snowfall: None
Records set or tied: Daily record - 2.61" on August 5th
Comments: With just 3 days of rainfall above 0.5" and a record rainfall on the 5th, overall the month was dry despite the monthly total being above normal.

Peak wind: Northwest/45 mph (5th)
Average wind: 6.0 mph
Average relative humidity: 65%
Average sky cover: 50%

Click here for a daily statistical recap for Memphis International Airport.

Cirrus Weather Solutions /, Bartlett, TN

Average temperature: 77.2 degrees
Average high temperature: 89.4 degrees
Average low temperature: 66.6 degrees
Warmest temperature: 97.5 degrees (3rd)
Coolest temperature: 54.7 degrees (26th)
Comments: None

Monthly total: 3.46" (automated rain gauge), 3.52" (manual CoCoRaHS rain gauge)
Days with measurable precipitation: 7
Wettest date: 1.14" (5th) (via automated gauge)
Total Snowfall: None
Comments: None

Peak wind: Northwest/27 mph (7th)
Average relative humidity: 81%

Click here for a daily statistical recap for Bartlett, TN.

MWN Forecast Accuracy

MWN average temperature error: 1.80 degrees
MWN forecast temperatures within 2 degrees of actual: 76%
MWN average dewpoint error: 2.18 degrees
MWN forecast dewpoints within 2 degrees of actual: 69%

MWN's forecasts extend out five periods (2.5 days, or roughly 60 hours). Historical accuracy statistics can be found here.

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