Tuesday, August 4, 2015

July 2015 Climate Data and Forecast Accuracy

July Recap

Temperatures and precipitation were above normal the past couple months and that trend continued in July. In fact, daily average temperatures were at or above normal on 16 consecutive, and 24 of 25, days after a cooler than normal week to start the month. Precipitation was well below normal with the exception of 2 days (the 3rd and 23rd) which produced  87% of the total monthly rainfall. Through July, Memphis International Airport has a year-to-date rainfall deficit of 2.64", or about 92% of normal.

On July 14th, a complex of severe thunderstorms swept through the metro, downing trees and power lines across southwest TN with wind speeds of 50-60 mph. An 87 mph peak gust was recorded in Atoka, TN. Over 30,000 MLGW utility customers lost power, which took over 3 days to fully restore. Earlier in the month, flash flooding occurred across the metro on the Independence Day weekend as rainfall totals of 3-5" were recorded across the area.

Precip totals for the period July 2-4, 2015. Flash flooding was common across the southern metro.

Memphis International Airport, Memphis, TN

Average temperature: 84.5 degrees (1.8 degrees above average)
Average high temperature: 92.7 degrees (1.1 degrees above average)
Average low temperature: 76.4 degrees (2.6 degrees above average)
Warmest temperature: 99 degrees (20th, 29th)
Coolest temperature: 69 degrees (5th)
Records set or tied: 81 degrees (20th) - tied record for warmest minimum temp. 82 degrees (29th) - tied record for warmest minimum temp. The average minimum temperature for the month was 7th warmest on record. July 2015 was the 15th warmest July on record.
Comments: The first six days of the month were below average, then the rest of the month (except the 23rd which was 1 degree below average) featured above average temperatures. Only one day saw the low drop below 70 degrees (69 degrees on the 5th). Five days had low temperatures at or above 80 degrees.

Monthly total: 5.17" (0.58" above average)
Days with measurable precipitation: 9 (0.2 days above normal)
Wettest 24-hour period: 3.41" (2nd-3rd)
Total Snowfall: None
Records set or tied: 3.40" (3rd)
Comments: Over 4.5" of rain was recorded on just two days (3rd and 23rd). If those two days were discarded, it would have been the 7th driest July on record.

Peak wind: North/48 mph (14th)
Average wind: 6.6 mph
Average relative humidity: 69%
Average sky cover: 50%

Click here for a daily statistical recap for Memphis International Airport.

Cirrus Weather Solutions / MemphisWeather.net, Bartlett, TN

Average temperature: 83.0 degrees
Average high temperature: 92.3 degrees
Average low temperature: 74.0 degrees
Warmest temperature: 99.0 degrees (29th)
Coolest temperature: 65.1 degrees (31st)
Comments: None

Monthly total: 5.58" (automated rain gauge), 5.91" (manual CoCoRaHS rain gauge)
Days with measurable precipitation: 8
Wettest date: 3.04" (3rd) (via automated gauge)
Total Snowfall: None
Comments: None

Peak wind: West/35 mph (14th)
Average relative humidity: 79%

Click here for a daily statistical recap for Bartlett, TN.

MWN Forecast Accuracy

MWN average temperature error: 1.58 degrees
MWN forecast temperatures within 2 degrees of actual: 80%
MWN average dewpoint error: 1.48 degrees
MWN forecast dewpoints within 2 degrees of actual: 80%

MWN's forecasts extend out five periods (2.5 days, or roughly 60 hours). Historical accuracy statistics can be found here.

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