Monday, May 25, 2015

An active weather pattern continues into the holiday week

The first round of Memorial Day weekend storms moved through the region yesterday afternoon into the early overnight hours. A Tornado Watch was issued for the Mid-South until 10pm last night, but fortunately only scattered reports of wind damage were reported across the area.  

The bigger issue for some was heavy rainfall. Most afternoon and evening storms were scattered or fairly transient so no widespread flooding issues resulted. However, late in the evening, a north-south line of storms moving basically due north set up from Memphis south roughly along I-55. It took some time to slowly move east and weakened to general rainfall during the overnight hours. A Flash Flood Warning was issued for the eastern metro and Doppler estimated storm total rainfall amounts were in the 2.5-4" range within that warned area.

Scattered damaging wind reports were received across the region (yellow/green icons above) with most activity concentrated west of the metro closer to Little Rock. Yellow boxes are Severe Thunderstorm Warnings issued, green is Flash Flood Warnings, and red boxes are Tornado Warnings.
Doppler estimated rainfall totals for the Sunday/Sunday night event. The storm tracks with heaviest rain can be easily picked out as they moved north-northeast. Pink colors are >3" amounts.
We'll get a reprieve today for the most part, though a few scattered showers can't be ruled out. This should allow most picnics and ceremonies to be unaffected by precipitation, although it will be breeze and muggy with highs in the mid 80s this afternoon.

Flash Flood Watches cover much of the southern plains and Mid-South with Flash Flood Warnings across much of OK and along rivers and streams across OK, TX, AR, and LA.

By this evening, another round of storms is expected. Driven by another upper-level impulse, these storms will likely bring many reports of large hail, widespread damaging wind, and a few tornadoes to eastern TX and southeast OK today before moving east-northeast across AR and into the Mid-South overnight. Fortunately, the storm system will weaken considerably as it draws closer, but expect more potentially heavy rainfall and lightning after midnight tonight into Tuesday morning.

Monday severe weather outlook from the Storm Prediction Center and the general track of a developing storm system in west TX that will move into AR overnight and weaken.

High-res model simulated radar image valid at midnight showing the line of storms that will be moving across across AR. Line placement is approximate and one model's interpretation. This line will be in a weakening stage, likely reaching the MS River in the wee hours or near dawn Tuesday morning.
The remnants of the overnight system will affect us Tuesday morning, then there is a chance that storms could re-fire over the area Tuesday afternoon. This will be largely driven by how much rain is still around in the morning, as morning showers and clouds will help to stabilize the atmosphere and keep afternoon storms from forming.

The SPC convective outlook for Tuesday shows a Slight Risk of damaging wind or large hail mainly east of the MS River.
Heading into the latter half of the short work week, the Mid-South enters a more summerlike pattern, with fewer organized systems like early this week. Scattered showers and t'storms will be expected during peak heating in the afternoon and early evening hours as temps reach the mid to upper 80s with moderate humidity levels and southerly flow off the Gulf of Mexico.

To close, on this Memorial Day holiday, I simply say "thank you" to all of those past and present who have fought bravely to ensure the freedoms that we too often take for granted and God bless the families and friends of those who have lost their brave loved ones in the battle. You are not forgotten.

Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

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