Sunday, April 19, 2015

Sunday Update on Severe Weather Potential Later Today #memstorm

With one weather-maker in the form of low pressure and a trough having departed this morning, we now focus our eyes to the west where our next chance of rain will arrive from later today. Temperatures should easily make it to the mid 70's with help from peaks of sunshine. That energy will help fuel storms later this afternoon and evening along an approaching cold front. Lets take a closer look at what to expect from storms.

The Storm Prediction Center outlook from 11:30 AM has the entire metro in an Enhanced Risk zone (3 out of 5). The expected threats from this evening's severe weather are mainly straight-line wind above 60 mph (a 30% chance of this occurring within 25 miles of you) and large hail (a 15% chance), though an isolated tornado is also possible (5% chance within 25 miles). Lets shift toward the most likely timing of the event.

HRRR model simulated radar valid at 10pm, showing the main storms over the metro. Graphic courtesy WxBell.
The latest data from our short term, high resolution weather model (the HRRR, above) shows the main line of thunderstorms across the metro at 10 PM tonight. While this is not an exact forecast (it is just one model run among many), it still gives us an idea of approximate arrival of the line of potentially severe storms. Often times frontal systems will be a little bit faster than the model predicts, so it would not be surprising if we saw this set-up an hour earlier. Additionally there is a chance of a few showers this afternoon and a strong isolated storm or two could get going prior to the arrival of the squall line itself (late this afternoon and evening), though that scenario doesn't appear to be as likely as the early afternoon shower chance.

Enjoy the afternoon, but be prepared for scattered showers and thunderstorms by early evening, with the arrival of the main line of storms between 8-11 PM. For those of you headed to the first Grizzles playoff game, be prepared for severe weather to be coming in right around the end of the game and remain weather aware as you depart.

As always, make sure you have multiple sources for warning information and plan accordingly. While this is not expected to be a significant severe weather outbreak, it only takes one severe storm for you to be impacted. We recommend StormWatch+ within the app as one means of receiving precise warnings for your specific location and stay tuned to our social media channels for the latest throughout the day.

William Churchill
MWN Social Media Intern

Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

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