Sunday, February 8, 2015

January 2015 Climate Data and Forecast Accuracy

January Recap

Dry conditions that ended the year 2014 continued into 2015, although temperatures were near normal for the month. In fact, drought conditions are now present across the metro after a prolonged period of below normal precipitation. As of February 3, severe drought (D2 on a 4-point scale) is present in southwest Shelby Co., Crittenden Co, and western DeSoto Co, while the rest of the metro is in moderate drought conditions (D1). As in November and December, there was no severe weather during January. Temperatures started the month well below normal, but the second half of the month offset that start, resulting in an average for the month that was very "average." The last severe weather warnings issued by NWS-Memphis came on October 13.

Accumulated precipitation (green) vs. normal (brown) for the past 90 days. Memphis has received just over 1/3 of normal precip during this period.

The Drought Monitor places parts of the metro in a severe drought as of early February.

Memphis International Airport, Memphis, TN

Average temperature: 41.0 degrees (0.2 degrees below average)
Average high temperature: 50.1 degrees (0.3 degrees above average)
Average low temperature: 31.9 degrees (0.7 degrees below average)
Warmest temperature: 65 degrees (19th)
Coolest temperature: 9 degrees (8th)
Records set or tied: None
Comments: None.

Monthly total: 1.30" (2.68" below average)
Days with measurable precipitation: 7
Wettest 24-hour period: 0.63" (3rd)
Total Snowfall: 0.0" (1.9" below average)
Records set or tied: None
Comments: Only one day had precipitation above 0.25", which was the 3rd (0.63"). January 2015 was the 9th driest January in 142 years of record keeping.  There were no thunderstorms or freezing/frozen precipitation recorded at the airport for the second straight month.

Peak wind: North/38 mph (7th)
Average wind: 7.8 mph
Average relative humidity: 59%
Average sky cover: 60%

Click here for a daily statistical recap for Memphis International Airport.

Cirrus Weather Solutions /, Bartlett, TN

Average temperature: 39.8 degrees
Average high temperature: 50.0 degrees
Average low temperature: 30.1 degrees
Warmest temperature: 66.1 degrees (29th)
Coolest temperature: 7.9 degrees (8th)
Comments: None

Monthly total: 1.24" (automated rain gauge), 1.30" (manual CoCoRaHS rain gauge)
Days with measurable precipitation: 8
Wettest date: 0.52" (3rd) (via automated gauge)
Total Snowfall: 0.0"
Comments: None

Peak wind: Northwest/24 mph (29th)
Average relative humidity: 72%

Click here for a daily statistical recap for Bartlett, TN.

MWN Forecast Accuracy

MWN average temperature error: 2.85 degrees
MWN forecast temperatures within 2 degrees of actual: 50%
MWN average dewpoint error: 2.16 degrees
MWN forecast dewpoints within 2 degrees of actual: 69%

MWN's forecasts extend out five periods (2.5 days, or roughly 60 hours). Historical accuracy statistics can be found here.

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