Thursday, August 7, 2014

July 2014 Weather Recap and MWN Forecast Accuracy

July Recap

As mentioned last month, each month in 2014 has experienced below normal average temperatures. July 2014 not only was below normal, but was nearly record-breaking in that regard! The average temperature for the month at Memphis International Airport was 4.7 degrees below normal, ending as the sixth coolest Memphis July in 140 years of record-keeping. In fact, the average temperature for the month was cooler than June's average temp. Two record low maximum temperatures were set, including a high of 69 on the 18th that went down as the first high temperature below 70 ever recorded in the month of July! Through July, the average temperature for the year so far ranks 11th coolest on record.

Precipitation-wise, after an extremely wet June, the month ended up well below normal with just 56% of normal July rainfall. Flooding in June was long gone, replaced by browning and wilting vegetation by the end of July. For the year, precipitation is still 129% of normal, or near 9.5" above normal. The only severe weather in July was wind damage in eastern Shelby County on the 14th from scattered strong storms and isolated flooding on the 9th in Fayette County and on the 23rd in southern Shelby County.

Memphis International Airport, Memphis, TN

Average temperature: 78.0 degrees (4.7 degrees below average)
Average high temperature: 86.5 degrees
Average low temperature: 69.5 degrees
Warmest temperature: 95 degrees (14th)
Coolest temperature: 62 degrees (16th)
Records set or tied: Record low maximum of 69 on the 18th and record low maximum of 79 on the 19th.
Comments: Eleven days had maximum temperatures at or above 90. Three days had maximum temperatures that were below 80 (two of which set records). The average temperature of 78.0 degrees is the sixth coolest July on record. For the year, the average temperature at Memphis is 59.6 degrees, which is 2.9 degrees below average.

Monthly total: 2.56 " (2.03" below average)
Days with measurable precipitation: 10
Wettest 24-hour period: 0.87" (July 8-9)
Records set or tied: None
Comments: Zero days had more than 1" of rain and three days recorded more than 0.50". As of the end of July, the yearly precipitation has been 41.92", which is 9.42" above (or 129% of) average.

Peak wind: West/47 mph (14th)
Average wind: 5.9 mph
Average relative humidity: 68%
Average sky cover: 50%

Click here for a daily statistical recap for Memphis International Airport.

Cirrus Weather Solutions /, Bartlett, TN

Average temperature: 76.3 degrees
Average high temperature: 86.6 degrees
Average low temperature: 66.2 degrees
Warmest temperature: 95.4 degrees (14th)
Coolest temperature: 57.3 degrees (30th)
Comments: Only 10 days had high temperatures at or above 90. The coolest high temperature was a chilly 67.0 on the 18th. The warmest low temperature was 79.4 on the 27th.

Monthly total: 1.99" (automated rain gauge), 1.95" (manual CoCoRaHS rain gauge)
Days with measurable precipitation: 8
Wettest date: 0.71" (1st) (via automated gauge)
Comments: Zero days with more than 1" of rain and one days with more than 0.50".

Peak wind: Northwest/30 mph (14th)
Average relative humidity: 79%

Click here for a daily statistical recap for Bartlett, TN.

MWN Forecast Accuracy

MWN average temperature error: 1.92 degrees
MWN forecast temperatures within 2 degrees of actual: 72%
MWN average dewpoint error: 1.88 degrees
MWN forecast dewpoints within 2 degrees of actual: 71%

MWN's forecasts extend out five periods (2.5 days, or roughly 60 hours). Historical accuracy statistics can be found here.

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