Monday, July 7, 2014

June 2014 Weather Recap and MWN Forecast Accuracy

June Recap

Each month in 2014 has experienced below normal average temperatures. June continued the trend, but was just barely below average as May was. The average temperature for the month at Memphis International Airport was just 0.3 degrees below normal at 79.3 degrees. After failing to reach 90 degrees through May, Memphis reached 90 on ten occasions in June with a maximum temp of 94. For the first half of 2014, the average temperature in Memphis was 56.6 degrees, or 2.6 degrees below normal.

However, the biggest story for the month was, by far, rainfall. The early part of the month featured a few rounds of severe weather that produced sporadic wind damage reports and heavy rainfall with minor flooding (see top graphic below), but ended with a flash flooding event for the record books. The month ended up being the 8th wettest on record and 2nd wettest June, while the maximum 24-hour total from the 28th-29th (7.02") was nearly twice the normal average for the entire month! The daily record set on the 29th (5.87") was also the 7th wettest day in the Memphis record books. For the first half of the year, Memphis is nearly a foot above normal precipitation.

2-day radar estimated precip totals - June 28-29, 2014 

Memphis International Airport, Memphis, TN

Average temperature: 79.3 degrees (0.3 degrees below average)
Average high temperature: 87.5 degrees
Average low temperature: 71.1 degrees
Warmest temperature: 94 degrees (21st)
Coolest temperature: 62 degrees (14th)
Records set or tied: None
Comments: Ten days had maximum temperatures at or above 90. For the year, the average temperature at Memphis is 56.6 degrees, which is 2.6 degrees below average.

Monthly total: 13.40 " (9.77" above average)
Days with measurable precipitation: 13
Wettest 24-hour period: 7.02" (June 28-29)
Records set or tied: Daily precip: 5.87" on the 29th
Comments: Five days had more than 1" of rain and six days recorded more than 0.50". At the halfway point of the year, the total precipitation has been 39.36", which is 11.45" above (or 141% of) average. The daily record precip on the 29th was also the 7th wettest day on record in Memphis and this month was the second wettest June and 8th wettest month on record.

Peak wind: Northwest/52 mph (5th)
Average wind: 7.3 mph
Average relative humidity: 72%
Average sky cover: 60%

Click here for a daily statistical recap for Memphis International Airport.

Mid-South rainfall totals for June 2014, courtesy NWS-Memphis

Cirrus Weather Solutions /, Bartlett, TN

Average temperature: 77.6 degrees
Average high temperature: 88.0 degrees
Average low temperature: 69.3 degrees
Warmest temperature: 94.1 degrees (19th)
Coolest temperature: 56.3 degrees (14th)
Comments: 12 days had high temperatures at or above 90. The coolest high temperature was 79.1 on the 10th. The warmest low temperature was 75.9 on the 30th.

Monthly total: 11.15" (automated rain gauge), 11.37" (manual CoCoRaHS rain gauge)
Days with measurable precipitation: 16
Wettest date: 4.70" (29th) (via automated gauge)
Comments: Three days with more than 1" of rain and eight days with more than 0.50".

Peak wind: Northwest/30 mph (5th)
Average relative humidity: 82%

Click here for a daily statistical recap for Bartlett, TN.

MWN Forecast Accuracy

MWN average temperature error: 1.61 degrees
MWN forecast temperatures within 2 degrees of actual: 78%
MWN average dewpoint error: 1.59 degrees
MWN forecast dewpoints within 2 degrees of actual: 78%

MWN's forecasts extend out five periods (2.5 days, or roughly 60 hours). Historical accuracy statistics can be found here.

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