Saturday, June 28, 2014

"Real Memphis summer" arrives, then a cool front in time for Independence Day

As several days of unsettled weather comes to an end this weekend and we head into the July 4th holiday week, high pressure aloft builds in. The only fly in the ointment will be a weak cool front around mid-week that, at best, lowers humidity values a bit and brings brief rain chances.

One more day of scattered storms is expected on Sunday before the high pressure ridge squashes thunderstorm chances for a couple of days. The extra heating under the ridge with a lack of cooling precipitation will mean highs soar above 90 Monday and Tuesday - likely into the mid 90s. With dewpoints (i.e., low level humidity) remaining near seasonal summertime levels, we'll likely see heat indices above 100, perhaps flirting with the 105-degree danger level.

High pressure aloft (pink) dominates the southern half of the U.S. in this GFS forecast model valid Monday evening.
A weak cold front will undercut the high pressure cell aloft, bringing a slight chance of rain at mid-week (most likely Wednesday, but possibly Thursday), followed by surface high pressure over the Ohio Valley building south. The high pressure ridge should hopefully end the rain chances by the first fireworks exhibitions on Thursday night. The hope is that the Ohio Valley high builds far enough south to end rain chances and also lower temperature and humidity values a bit heading into the the 3rd and 4th.

GFS forecast model temperatures and precipitation for the upcoming week. Mid 90s are possible Mon-Wed with slightly cooler temperatures after a bit of rain on Wed or Thu (other models indicate Wed; GFS says Thu).
After a couple of "cooler" days to end the week, the heat looks to build again heading into next weekend. Stay updated on the latest expectations from MWN for the short holiday week and local 4th of July celebrations with the MWN Forecast on the web, mobile web, and MWN mobile apps.

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