Sunday, April 13, 2014

Multiple rounds of storms expected through Monday

Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected overnight into Monday as a large-scale weather system moves through the region, ending the beautiful spring weather for a few days and replacing it with cooler temperatures - perhaps even some morning frost in some outlying areas.

The first round of showers and storms is expected this evening after 7pm and lasting a few hours, perhaps until midnight or so.  (All "future radar" graphics below are from MODEL OUTPUT and are NOT a forecast, but provide a general idea of what might occur.)

HRRR modeled radar at 8pm indicating an area of storms near the MS River.

NAM modeled radar at 8pm CDT also indicating an area of storms along the river.
Following the initial line of storms, another wave looks like it will move in during the early morning hours Monday.  This area of rain and storms could also last a few hours, or perhaps until dawn.

NAM modeled radar at 3am Monday indicating the first line of storms falling apart over northeast MS and another line over the metro.
Behind the overnight storms, the cold front remains to our west, allowing more warm and unstable air to move back in as the front arrives in the early afternoon. A respite from storms is expected during the morning, though showers are still likely.  Finally, as the front moves through, more showers and thunderstorms are expected to fire up mainly along and east of the Mississippi River during the afternoon hours, providing additional rainfall.

NAM modeled radar at 3pm Monday indicating scattered showers and some thunderstorms re-developing over the area as the front moves through.
All rain should come to an end during the evening hours Monday as the front finally moves well to our east.  As far as severe weather is considered, the setup is fairly "messy" with a lot of thunderstorms but nothing overly impressive as far as severe activity. However, strong wind is possible with any of these lines of storms.  Tonight's severe weather outlook from SPC (below) puts the metro in a Slight Risk zone with a 15% chance of 60 mph wind within 25 miles of the city, a 5% risk of large hail, and a 2% risk of a tornado.

As for tomorrow, storms could again get strong to severe ahead of the front in the afternoon. The metro could see a few strong storms, but we expect most of the severe weather to be to our east where the atmosphere will be more potent as the front moves through later in the afternoon.

Most severe weather should be just east of the metro on Monday, though a few strong storms are possible as the front moves through in the afternoon.
As for flooding, multiple rounds of storms could drop a good deal of rainfall, though the ground is currently dry enough to handle a fair amount before flooding would occur. Heavy downpours in any line of storms could cause some short-term flash flooding concerns, especially in urbanized areas. Below is the predicted rainfall amounts from 7pm tonight through 7pm Tuesday.  The metro is in an area that could see widespread 2" rainfall amounts with locally higher totals (perhaps up to 4" if multiple strong storms affect the same area).

Projected rainfall totals through Tuesday.  Widespread 2" totals are likely in the metro.
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Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

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