Monday, March 3, 2014

February 2014 Weather Recap and MWN Forecast Accuracy

February Recap

Following a brutally cold January, February offered only minimal relief.  The average temperature was over 4 degrees below normal with three days remaining below freezing all day, however no temperature records were broken.  There were multiple instances of light wintry weather during the month, but only one day with measurable sleet/snow.  Overall, precipitation for the month was slightly above average.  Severe thunderstorms on the 20th caused some wind damage in northwest MS, though several Severe Thunderstorm and Tornado Warnings were issued that day in the Memphis metro.  Flash flooding was also observed in heavy rain on the 4th.

Memphis International Airport, Memphis, TN

Average temperature: 41.1 degrees (4.4 degrees below average)
Average high temperature: 50.2 degrees
Average low temperature: 31.9 degrees
Warmest temperature: 74 degrees (20th)
Coolest temperature: 19 degrees (7th and 11th)
Records set or tied: None
Comments: Three days had high temperatures below freezing and 16 days had low temperatures below freezing. For the 3-month period of "meteorological winter" (December-February), Memphis' average temperature was 39.9 degrees, which was 3.5 degrees below normal.

Monthly total: 4.96" (0.57" above average)
Snow/ice total: 0.3" (1.0" below average)
Days with measurable precipitation: 9
Wettest 24-hour period: 2.88" (February 4th)
Records set or tied: February 4th, daily precipitation (2.88")
Comments: Two days with more than 1" of rain and the same two days with more than 0.50". The last day with measurable precipitation was the 13th. A trace of winter precipitation (not measurable) was recorded on six days with 0.3" recorded on the 8th.  For the 3-month period of meteorological winter, Memphis precipitation totaled 12.94", which was 1.17" below normal.  Snowfall from December-February totaled 0.3", which was 1.6" below normal.

Peak wind: Southwest/47 mph (20th)
Average wind: 9.2 mph
Average relative humidity: 62%
Average sky cover: 70%

Click here for a daily statistical recap for Memphis International Airport.

Cirrus Weather Solutions/, Bartlett, TN

Average temperature: 40.0 degrees
Average high temperature: 50.5 degrees
Average low temperature: 30.0 degrees
Warmest temperature: 74.0 degrees (20th)
Coolest temperature: 16.9 degrees (27th)
Comments: Three days had high temperatures below freezing and 19 days had low temperatures below freezing.

Monthly total: 5.17" (automated rain gauge), 5.45" (manual CoCoRaHS rain gauge)
Snow/ice total: 0.5"
Days with measurable precipitation: 12
Wettest date: 3.03" (February 4th)
Comments: Two days with more than 1" of rain and the same two days with more than 0.50". A trace of snow (not measurable) was recorded on four days with 0.5" on the 8th.

Peak wind: Southwest/28 mph (20th)
Average relative humidity: 73%

Click here for a daily statistical recap for Bartlett, TN.

MWN Forecast Accuracy

MWN average temperature error: 3.26 degrees
MWN forecast temperatures within 2 degrees of actual: 50%
MWN average dewpoint error: 4.19 degrees
MWN forecast dewpoints within 2 degrees of actual: 44%

MWN's forecasts extend out five periods (2.5 days, or roughly 60 hours). Historical accuracy statistics can be found here.

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