Friday, March 28, 2014

Details on possible severe weather tonight - March 28 #memstorm

6:25pm UPDATE:

A Severe T'storm Watch has been issued until 2am for all of northwest MS, including all metro counties, as well as Fayette County in west TN (map below).  Shelby County is NOT included in the watch as the cold front has inched down about to I-40 and the risk of severe weather is not as high along and north of the interstate. A few reports have come in of small hail in the past hour here in the metro, though, and that could continue, though we expect the larger hail and any damaging wind to be south of the TN/MS state line.  Follow us on Facebook and Twitter for the latest.

Severe T'storm Watch until 2am for the pink counties. A Severe T'storm Warning was also in effect for Tunica County at the time this image was taken.

2:45pm UPDATE:

The first Mid-South Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been posted until 10pm. Covering mostly southern AR, the Mississippi delta, northern Louisiana, and the ArkLaTex, it also includes Tunica County on it's far northeast corner.  Expect another watch box later for the rest of the metro.

Timing of storms appears to be anytime after 5pm for southwest portions of the metro and 6-7pm for the rest of the metro, including Memphis and Shelby County. Strong to severe storms containing large hail and strong, gusty wind to 60 mph are the most likely severe weather threats. Plan your evening around where you'll go if severe weather strikes and how you'll receive your severe weather information. Of course, we'll keep you updated throughout via social media and our apps (links below).

Below you'll find a video forecast discussion I produced around 10:30 this morning dealing with the potential for severe weather in the Mid-South tonight.  It runs just short of 10 minutes and covers the situation well.

For those who want the nitty-gritty and don't have 10 minutes:

  • T'storms are expected later today, beginning with a chance by the evening rush hour, becoming likely after 6pm (maybe as late as 8pm).  The storms will continue for several hours, ending in the midnight time frame with showers possible for a few more hours after that.
  • A Slight Risk of severe weather exists for the Mid-South with the greatest threat of severe storms south and west of the metro. However, damaging wind (50-60 mph or higher) and large hail (1"+) are possible with any storms in the metro. The tornado risk is very low, but not zero.
  • Cooler and less humid weather expected this weekend, though not unpleasant except for the breezy north wind on Saturday. Highs in the 60s.  Warmer weather (70s) returns next week, as well as another potential severe weather period Wednesday-Thursday. It's too early for details - stay tuned.

Many of you may be at AutoZone Park tonight for the Redbirds/Cardinals exhibition, or otherwise away from home and TV.  Have a way to get severe weather warnings (the MWN app with StormWatch+ properly programmed is our recommendation) and also have a plan where you will be in case you need to get under cover.  We'll be nowcasting via Twitter and Facebook so you can have the latest information as well. Don't rely on that for precision warning information however.  Only the app can provide that.

Also, if you're planning to watch NCAA Sweet 16 games tonight on TV, EXPECT to see a crawl going at the bottom of the screen on WREG as a severe weather watch could very well be issued.  Hopefully there is no need to break into programming for severe weather, but don't say I didn't warn you.

Stay safe tonight, enjoy the weekend weather, and welcome to spring!!

--Erik Proseus, MWN Meteorologist

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