Thursday, October 31, 2013

Quick trick-or-treat update - get those costumes ready!

The forecast for tonight is looking decent, as long as you don't mind a brief shower with your Kit Kat(TM) and sour gummy worms.

The bulk of today's rain will be moving out of the metro early this afternoon. I expect Memphis/Shelby County to be on the backside of the large rain shield that has covered the Mid-South this morning by 2pm.  Counties to our east and south may take another hour or two to clear.

The Slight Risk for severe weather is still technically in place, though the atmosphere is very stable right now thanks to all the rain this morning. A break in the precipitation this afternoon will allow a little instability to creep in, but cloud cover keeps it marginal.  Latest computer model data agrees with me.  Therefore, I would be very surprised if we see any watches or warnings, or even more than a rumble of thunder, the rest of the day.

This evening, the advertised cold front will move through between 7-10pm.  Until it moves through, we will still see a chance of a shower (or a lonely thundershower). In fact, there's a decent chance that are few fast-moving showers will escort the front through Mid-South neighborhoods this evening.  That is what this morning's high-res NAM model depicts (image below, valid at 7pm).  The good thing about anything that does fall tonight is it won't last long - showers will be moving at up to 50-60 mph overhead thanks to a mid-level jet stream on a Halloween sugar high.

Hi-res model "future radar" valid at 7pm tonight. MODEL means one possibility. It does not accurately predict each and every shower and it's location. Expect a chance of a shower around this time. Graphic courtesy WeatherBell.

So would I plan on trick-or-treating tonight? Well, *I* won't... but my kids will, and I see no reason to get between them and a sack of chocolate based on the forecast.  I'll go along and carry the umbrella, just in case, then expect at least a 10% candy commission for moving the weather out in time to hit up the neighbors for their sweet confections.

Folks, be SAFE tonight, take the MWN mobile app with you so you can keep an eye on local radar (link below), be a good chaperone and carry the ponchos or umbrella just in case, and if you see lightning or hear thunder, it'll be time to call it a night. Here's to full bags of sugary American goodness for all of you!

--Erik Proseus, MWN Meteorologist

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