Friday, October 11, 2013

A warm weekend forecast and a shot at scattered showers


Low level clouds have been in the picture for several days now and we'll be dealing with a few again this morning. In fact cloud cover (and even a few showers) can be expected for much of Saturday as well due to an approaching weak cold front. However, highs in the mid 80's with lows in the mid 60's can be expected for basically the entire weekend. Check out the analysis and forecast below.


NAM sounding valid for 12Z (7AM) Friday.

This vertical profile of the atmosphere shows the low level moisture present around 1500 feet this morning, indicating some low clouds. Above that level there is much drier, and even slightly warmer air that is trapping the moisture below it.

NAM 850 mb (5,000') relative humidity and wind vectors at 18Z (1PM) Saturday.
Looking toward Saturday afternoon, modeled mid-level moisture indicates the arrival of more clouds from the west. These clouds are associated with the approach of a weak cold front which could also stir up some scattered showers.

NAM 6 hour accumulated precipitation valid between 15-21Z (3-9PM) Saturday.
This particular weather model shows small amounts of accumulated precipitation in the afternoon hours of Saturday. Any rain showers would likely be scattered in nature.

By Sunday we can expect to see some significant clearing in cloud cover, as well as very slightly cooler, drier air. While not a major change it will be good enough until our next major system comes through next week.

William's Memphis Forecast

Mostly cloudy in the morning with some clearing in the afternoon. High of 83, low of 66.

Mostly cloudy with a high of 84, low of 65. 30% chance of showers.

Partly cloudy with a high of 81, low of 62.

--William Churchill (MWN Social Media Intern)

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