Monday, September 30, 2013

More clouds than sun this week, plus our next chance of rain


Another Monday, another deck of stratus across the Mid-South. There seems to have been a lot of these overcast mornings lately, accompanied today by patchy fog and light showers. This low-level moisture looks to slowly decrease from top to bottom but will likely linger in the lowest levels through tonight. This will keep today's temperatures down in the mid 70's. Average temperatures (lower 80s) look to return tomorrow and will likely continue until the weekend. Chances of precipitation are possible, mainly Wednesday, before our a larger change in weather arrives this weekend. We'll focus on the work week forecast in today's blog.


Visible Satellite imagery valid at 1432 UTC (9:32 AM)
Visible satellite imagery from this morning showed a large area of stratus across the Mid-South. Dry air is already beginning to stream in from the northwest in the mid-levels but clouds look to remain overcast in the lower levels through this evening.

NAM Sounding valid at 00 UTC 10/01 (7 PM tonight)
This modeled vertical profile of the atmosphere for this evening shows a layer of clouds still present at the lower levels, where the red and green lines meet (temperature and moisture values, respectively). You can see the dry air I was talking about in the mid levels because the green line is far to the left, indicating dry air through that large column of the atmosphere. This cloud cover will keep temperatures in the mid 70's today. However, the low level clouds should be eroded much easier tomorrow allowing for a decent amount of sunshine and above average temperatures. This sunshine may allow for some rain chances starting tomorrow due to destabilization of the atmosphere. However, best the best chance for rain this week still looks to be Wednesday.

NAM Composite Reflectivity valid at 00 UTC 10/03 (Wednesday at 7 PM)
This weather model image, valid Wednesday evening, simply shows a prediction of what the radar will look like at a given time. This indicates rain in the area which I think will be likely for much of the day Wednesday. This rain is due to an upper-level low pressure system that is providing energy for uplift. With ample moisture present during this time frame expect scattered showers and possibly some thunderstorms. This feature is expected to diminish by Thursday keeping things mostly dry until our next major system comes through this weekend. There will be more on that in the blog later this week, in the meantime you can check out my work week forecast below.

William's Memphis Forecast

Cloudy with a high of 75, low of 66. Slight chance of showers for remainder of the morning.

Partly sunny with a high of 84, low of 69. 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Cloudy with a high of 79, low of 70. 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Precipitation totals of about a quarter of an inch.

Mostly cloudy with a high of 83, low of 72. 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms.

--William Churchill (MWN Social Media Intern)

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