Friday, August 30, 2013

Heat Persists through Labor Day Weekend


After a hot and sunny work week we'll continue to deal with Mid-South heat as a hotter than average start to meteorological fall begins this weekend. However, the overall weather pattern is certainly more interesting than the previous week, with chances for rain entering the forecast. This potentially wet weather could also bring some relief to high temperatures heading into next week, but first let's focus on labor day weekend.

Weather Analysis

Above is a satellite image of water vapor in the mid-levels of the atmosphere. The main focus in this image is the low-pressure system and associated moisture centered over the northwest corner of Arkansas. This low-pressure system is embedded in a broad area of high pressure that has persisted since last week and is now moving close enough to the Mid-South to influence our weather. This low is essentially an area of cold air aloft and will help to erode the lid on the atmosphere that is preventing clouds, and thus rain, to form.

The 24 hour forecast of the 18Z NAM above shows the area of cold air aloft, as well as the associated dip in pressure due to the higher density of that cold air. As this upper-level low sits to our southwest, it will continue to bring in moist air which will result in clouds and chances for rain. As the ridge slowly shifts to the west heading into Labor Day, we'll see a cold front move through the region bringing slightly cooler temps and decreased humidity for next week. 

William's Memphis Forecast

Saturday: Partly cloudy with a high of 97, low of 77. Isolated showers/t'storms.

Sunday: Partly cloudy with a high of 96, low of 77. Slight chance of showers/t'storms.

Monday: Mostly cloudy with a high of 94, low of 75. Chance of showers/t'storms.

--William Churchill, MWN Social Media Intern

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