Saturday, April 27, 2013

Severe storms possible this afternoon & evening

The Storm Prediction Center has placed the southern half of west TN, southeastern half of AR, and north MS in a Slight Risk this afternoon and evening, indicating an elevated threat of severe weather, including in the Memphis metro.

The timing for potential severe weather will be from mid-afternoon through the evening hours.  This threat is driven by an approaching low pressure system that will pass by just to our north.  As it moves closer, a warm front will lift north of the area, putting the metro in the warm sector of the approaching low and increasing surface-based instability (a necessary ingredient for severe storms). The threat exists until the low moves by and drags a cold front through the region, which should occur by midnight tonight.

We expect the event to unfold with scattered thunderstorms or clusters of storms forming over the Mid-South by 2-3 pm today and continuing into the evening hours, with a line of storms possible to end the event late this evening (8-11pm). The storms will bring the risk of straight-line wind of 60 mph, large hail, and an isolated threat for a tornado.  The tornado threat is very low. The risk area and chance of each severe weather type is shown below and is valid as of 8am.

A Slight Risk of severe weather exists today. The main threats are hail & wind. Click image to enlarge.
If you have outdoor plans, particularly during the afternoon and evening, stay in close touch with local weather sources. We highly recommend the use of our MWN mobile apps for radar and forecast information. If you haven't yet activated StormWatch+ in the MWN app, today is a good day to do so. It allows you to put in your specific locations of interest and get warnings and watches as they are issued for just those locations. There is no more precise or convenient warning system available anywhere and it's backed with support from a local, trusted, responsive source.  Links to download our apps are below.

As usual, we will provide regular updates via social media as storms form and until they leave the area, including threats posed, locations affected, and timing of any threats. Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at the links below.

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