Thursday, March 21, 2013

Early Thursday morning snow update

A quick update to yesterday's blog on the potential for snow today... the second day of spring!

The Winter Storm Watch has been replaced with a Winter Weather Advisory for the west TN counties in the metro (including Memphis and Shelby County) and Crittenden Co (as well as others) in northeast AR - see map below.  Areas in north MS are expected to get less than an inch of snow, if much at all, thus no advisory. The Advisory is in effect from 7pm tonight to 9am Friday, though as you'll read below, any snow will have changed to rain long before that.

Winter Weather Advisory for purplish-shaded counties. Winter Storm Warning in pink.

Overnight mode data suggests that the threat of accumulating snow is diminishing, mainly due to a possibly later onset. In this scenario, warmer temperatures (especially in the 1-3,000' foot layer) are moving in as you go through the evening hours, which means if the precipitation starts later, there is a better chance it will be more rain than snow.

We now expect very light precipitation (mainly sprinkles with possible light sleet or flurries) will be possible after 4pm, but the main area of precipitation may be delayed until as late as 6-9pm.  By midnight, precipitation should be all rain.  Therefore, there is a narrow potential window this evening from 6pm-midnight or so when rain can, and likely will, mix with snow. In Memphis/Shelby County and Fayette County, the rain/snow mix could produce a half-inch to inch or so of snow - mainly on grassy or elevated surfaces.  In Tipton and northern Crittenden County, the total could be 1-2", though an inch seems more plausible. Overnight, rain will fall, which should help a great deal in melting any snow.

This is certainly better news for those who were dreading a mid-March snow, but bad news for those who wanted one chance to get the cardboard sleds out!  We'll continue to monitor and bring you the latest - follow us on social media at the links below.

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