Sunday, August 12, 2012

Another slight risk of severe weather on Monday

After a gorgeous August weekend (what we term a "bonus weekend") with low humidity and below-normal temperatures, the atmosphere quickly re-energizes in advance of another cold front that will move through the Mid-South on Monday.  Wind has shifted around to the south and dewpoints/humidity will increase overnight, setting the stage for possible severe weather in advance of the cold front.

A SLIGHT RISK of severe weather exists mainly east of the Mississippi River for Monday, as shown below, and includes all of the metro area.  The timing for possible severe storms is roughly from late morning through late afternoon.  Primary risks are dangerous lightning, damaging wind, and large hail in storm clusters or line segments, though some supercell storms are also possible, which could spawn an isolated tornado, though we believe that risk to be relatively low.

The one "fly in the ointment" for this event will be the possibility of showers and non-severe thunderstorms early in  the morning, or roughly after 6am. If these form, which models indicate are possible, it could sap some of the energy required for strong thunderstorms later in the day.  It's a trend that we will monitor and keep you advised on and the primary reason that more of Arkansas is not included in the slight risk zone.  The timing of the front and associated ingredients that promote severe weather make it most likely east of the Mississippi River.  As with the past few systems, not everyone will likely see rain, but those that do get thunder in the afternoon  especially will need to be prepared for the possibility of strong wind and hail.

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