Friday, May 11, 2012

Mother's Day weekend forecast - not exactly what momma deserves!

Lots of activities going on this weekend, even though Memphis in May has no major outdoor festivities planned.  There still is Greek Fest and, of course, Mother's Day.  We all know our mothers deserve the very best because without them, we wouldn't be here!  Unfortunately, the weather is not going to be all that cooperative, so pick a restaurant that doesn't make it's "wait list" stand outside!  The only potential good news out of the weather pattern is that it won't be hot and it won't be severe!

Telltale clouds moved overhead today, indicating an approaching weather system.  These clouds are ahead of a weak surface low that will move from the western Gulf Coast to the southeastern U.S. by Sunday.  It is accompanied by an upper level low that will also affect the area.  Precipitation amounts this weekend won't be off-the-charts, but everyone should get a beneficial rain in the 24 hours between mid-day Saturday and mid-day Sunday.  Average amounts should be somewhere in the 1" range during that time frame.
Low pressure over TX is sending clouds across the Mid-South today. The low will be responsible for rain chances this weekend.
As for exact timing, a few of the computer models finally started coming into agreement today and it appears that, while a few showers are possible as early as Saturday morning, the bulk of the rain will hold off until late morning, though it will remain showery and intermittent through afternoon. By evening, the main "slug" of moisture will move over and steady rain is likely Saturday night. By Mother's Day morning, steady moderate rain should be tapering off, though we expect to see light showers stick around much of the day as the upper low moves near.  All rain should be done by Sunday evening, leading into a dry work week with moderating temperatures. Very little thunder is expected with this system as it moves by to our south, keeping the instability and deeper moisture suppressed towards the Gulf Coast.  Flooding is also not expected to be an issue with only 1" or so of rain spread over a 24-hour period.

GFS model precip amounts through Sunday evening. Memphis is the black dot near center. MWN forecasts ~1" of rain this weekend for the metro.
Highs this weekend will be mainly in the mid 70s owing to the showers and cloud cover.  Overnight lows will be mild - near 60 or slightly higher. Next week, we'll see highs rise from near 80 early in the week to perhaps the upper 80s by week's end.  For the complete forecast, visit the MWN Forecast page on

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