Sunday, March 11, 2012

Closer look at a slight risk area for part of the metro this evening

UPDATED: March 11, 8:45pm

As of 8pm, SPC has greatly reduced the slight risk area to where ongoing strong to severe thunderstorms are located, specifically part of Louisiana into the Ark-La-Miss region.  While general t'storm activity is possible in the metro overnight, it'll be more of the type that makes for good sleeping weather than anything else! As indicated below in our initial post, the initial severe threat was minimal to begin with and we're glad to see the slight risk cut way back.

Updated convective outlook from SPC, issued at 8pm


The Storm Prediction Center has placed much of the metro - specifically those counties bordering the Mississippi River - in a slight risk for possible severe weather later today.

Convective outlook from SPC for today and tonight
Though the atmospheric variables are marginal for severe weather in the immediate area, they are more potent over the southern half of the slight risk area, or along and south of I-40/30 in AR (southern AR, LA, and far eastern TX).  The main threat for the metro appears to be damaging wind from a potential squall line or mini-lines embedded within a large area of rain.  The highest potential for storms will be during the evening hours, between 6pm and midnight.  However, one of the key ingredients for severe weather, instability in the atmosphere (which can be aided greatly by sunshine in advance of storms), is lacking, contributing to the lower confidence in severe weather locally.

Probability of 58+ mph wind with today's storms, as issued by SPC.
MWN meteorologists feel that while the risk of severe weather is low, some storms could produce strong wind gusts and certainly dangerous lightning.  You can stay on top of severe weather, and be notified if it threatens your specific location, by downloading the app with StormWatch+ for your Android smartphone or tablet or iOS devices (iPhone, iPad, etc.).  A link to more information on the apps is below.  MWN plans to nowcast during any stormy weather tonight via Facebook and Twitter (links below).

For weather information for Memphis and the Mid-South, where and when you need it, visit on the web, on your mobile phone, download our iPhone or Android apps, or visit us on Facebook or Twitter.

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