Tuesday, January 24, 2012

More rain in the forecast in the days ahead

After Sunday night’s severe weather event (we’ll have a recap soon here on the MWN Blog), the weather in the metro area has turned much quieter over the last 48 hours. However, our next weather maker is beginning to organize to our southwest, and will begin making its impact felt tonight.

As an upper level disturbance approaches the area, with moisture levels increasing from the Gulf of Mexico, light rain will move into the area late tonight, most likely after Midnight. Rainfall will continue into at least Wednesday morning, meaning residents should expect a wet morning commute. Overall rain amounts should remain light, no greater than a half inch, and thunderstorms are not expected either as the Mid-South will stay on the “cool” side of a warm front to our south across Louisiana and Central Mississippi.

While we may see a brief break in rainfall during the afternoon hours Wednesday, surface low pressure organizing over South Texas will begin slowly pushing northeast toward the area by Wednesday night. Additionally, the warm front to our south will begin advancing northward closer to the area. As this occurs, more rainfall will break out, that will persist into much of the day Thursday. Rainfall amounts during this wave will likely be more significant, up to an inch. With the warm front pushing as close as North Mississippi during this time, a few thunderstorms may develop, but any threat for strong storms should remain south of the metro with the warm front not expected to pass through, unlike this past Sunday.

NWS forecast rainfall amounts through Thursday evening, with up to an inch and a half possible in the metro.
By Thursday evening, with the system pushing off to our southeast, rain will begin tapering off, with decreasing clouds expected by Friday along with slightly cooler temperatures. Between tonight and Thursday evening, total rainfall amounts upwards of an inch and a half are possible (see above image).

--Kevin Terry, MemphisWeather.Net

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