Upper level low brings unsettled weather through Tuesday

Merry Christmas!  Well, it's not snow, but it is a couple of rain chances that we'll deal with over the next 60 hours or so.  The responsibility for the rain chances falls squarely on an upper level low pressure system currently centered over far western TX (see the image below).  The first round of rainfall will move mainly over the Gulf Coast states with the northern edge of it roughly paralleling the TN-MS state line overnight tonight.  A few lingering showers are possible Christmas morning, mainly over north MS, but rainfall amounts over west TN should remain very light tonight if it rains at all.

Upper level low (UL) position this evening with  precip well ahead of it moving across the  Gulf Coast states

Once this first slug of moisture moves by, we'll be waiting for the next round, which arrives Monday into Tuesday.  The greater Memphis area will see much better rain chances with this one as the low itself finally ejects out of west TX and moves towards Dallas by Monday evening (see next image below).  In fact, some areas could see heavy rain on already wet ground on Monday evening/overnight.

Upper level low (UL) position as of Monday evening (note very little movement between now and then) with the next round of precipitation moving out ahead of it

By Tuesday morning, the computer model used in these images (GFS) indicates that the upper low will be moving directly over the Mid-South.  Though the main area of precipitation will have moved east of us, showery weather is typical with passing upper lows, so that is what we expect until the low moves by mid-day Tuesday (as shown below).  We'll keep a very close eye on Tuesday morning temperatures as well.  Though temperatures are expected to remain above freezing, we'll monitor for the potential for a few snowflakes as the system moves overhead that morning.  Once it finally moves east, the weather pattern looks drier for a few days to end the holiday week.

Upper level low (UL) position as of noon Tuesday with lingering showers over the Mid-South under the low

For MemphisWeather.net, I wish you and yours a blessed and wonderful Christmas Day!

--Erik Proseus, Meteorologist

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