Quick update on the situation this morning...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forming and moving northeast across AR early this morning, with some crossing the Mississippi River and other forming pretty quickly over west TN at 4:45am. Severe limits have not been crossed by most of the storms, but they are moving into an area that has the ingredients for them to become severe. The most concerning severe weather parameters seem to be lining up over much of southern west TN and extreme northern Mississippi according to realtime analysis of the event from the Storm Prediction Center website.
While a squall line has not yet formed, according to Little Rock Doppler Radar, several clusters and mini-lines have formed over Arkansas. As they move east, I expect some will merge and form some sort of larger line, particularly north of the metro region. Any storms that can gather enough strength could become severe with damaging wind the primary threat and a few tornadoes the secondary threat. A Tornado Watch remains in effect for west TN and northeast AR until 9am. The threat of severe weather will continue through rush hour until approximately 8am. We remain under a Slight Risk of severe weather.
MemphisWeather.net will cover the storm throughout the duration of the event. Remember that roads will be wet and storms will be in the area during the morning commute. Slow down, use low-beam headlights and wipers, and maintain a safe distance.
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