Tuesday, November 23, 2010

Winter weather on Black Friday - as welcome as your mother-in-law at the Thanksgiving table

So the doom and gloom forecasts have been issued and widespread panic is beginning to set in as Thanksgiving travelers and Black Friday shoppers decide whether to adjust their plans (or at least what to plan for) weather-wise. Here's the official take on the forecast from MemphisWeather.net:

I'll skip briefly through the next 36 hours... a warm front moves through early tomorrow (Wednesday) with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms during the morning, then things warm up into the 70s by afternoon and stay unseasonably warm Wednesday night with a steady (at times gusty) wind. Early Thursday, before dawn, that warm front makes one more run at the Mid-South as a cold front as it gets shoved east by a modified arctic airmass that dives south into the Mid-Mississippi Valley. The front will move through during the day on Thanksgiving, bringing with it a main course of moderate to heavy rain, a side of thunder and another of gusty north wind, and for dessert - quickly falling temperatures. The meal will be served during the afternoon hours.

The overnight period is the trickiest and computer models continue to disagree like in-laws around the Thanksgiving table. As rain continues to fall during the evening, temperatures will also fall, likely reaching the 30s by midnight. Sometime around then, rain will taper off as temperatures start to reach a crucial level - the lower 30s. As of right now, it is possible that the Memphis metro area could see a little light freezing drizzle or rain, snow flurries, or light sleet for a couple of hours between midnight and about 5am Friday - or roughly during the biggest doorbuster sales of the day. I can just it see it now... but I digress. I DO NOT expect to see any accumulations of wintry mess in the metro area, but perhaps some camped-out plastic toy needers will get a boost of Christmas mood by seeing a snowflake or two. Let's not call it Black Ice Friday just yet though OK?

After dawn Friday, I expect to see clouds quickly depart, leaving behind temperatures that will feel as cool as leftover turkey just removed from the refrigerator. Moderating temperatures are expected over the weekend. Have a great Thanksgiving - and stay with MemphisWeather.net for the latest.

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