In an update to my post from Monday, Colorado State University hurricane forecast experts Drs. Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray released their early June Atlantic hurricane outlook this morning. Previously (on April 7), they had predicted 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major Atlantic hurricanes this year. Those numbers were all increased, as expected based on other recent forecasts and the conditions setting up in the Atlantic/Caribbean. Below are their forecast numbers as well as the long-term climatological averages.
| CSU Forecast | Long-term average | |
| Named Storms | 18 | 9.6 |
| Named Storm Days | 90 | 49.1 |
| Hurricanes | 10 | 5.9 |
| Hurricane Days | 40 | 24.5 |
| Major Hurricanes | 5 | 2.3 |
| Major Hurricane Days | 13 | 5.0 |
| Prob. of Cat. 3-5 Landfall on a U.S. Coastline | ||
| Entire U.S. Coast | 76% | 52% |
| East Coast + FL Peninsula | 51% | 31% |
| Gulf Coast + FL Panhandle | 50% | 30% |
Their forecast reasoning is based on the same conditions discussed in my earlier posts and noted by other forecasters. These include a move from El Nino to neutral and eventually La Nina conditions this summer and fall resulting in weakened wind shear, anomalously high/near-record sea surface temperatures across the hurricane development regions of the Atlantic and Caribbean, a weak-than-normal Azores high over the Atlantic (again weakening wind shear that limits storm formation and intensification), and the fact that we are in the midst of a multi-decadal uptick in hurricane activity.
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