Friday, April 30, 2010

Weekend outlook - soggy!

SOGGY - That is the weekend weather word for Memphis in May's Beale Street Music Festival and other outdoor activities taking place (or scheduled to take place) across the region. he graphic above depicts the total weekend precipitation forecast by NOAA. You can see that the Memphis area is expected to receive 7"+ of rain! Here is the noontime Friday update on the expectations for this weekend weather-wise:

This afternoon/tonight
Cloudy skies will give way to a few peeks of sun this afternoon as wind continues gusting out of the south at 20-30 mph, humidity increases, and temperatures top out near 80 (especially if a little sun can come out). I expect scattered thunderstorms to begin breaking out after 3-4 pm and last into the evening. Many places may stay dry, some will see brief heavy rain, cloud-to-ground lightning, and perhaps hail or a high wind gust. Music Fest has about a 40% chance of thunderstorms and temps in the 70s throughout the evening. Storms should die down some after sunset, but scattered showers could linger. Late tonight (after 3am or so), a round of thunderstorms is possible again. The metro area is under a SLIGHT RISK of severe weather. Lows will be near 70 thanks to gusty south wind and cloud cover.

Showers and thunderstorms are likely pretty much all day and into the evening as a cold front moves into the region. Some storms could be severe in the afternoon and evening, bringing large hail, dangerous lightning, high wind, and the isolated threat of a tornado. Rainfall could be heavy at times, with the possibility of a couple of inches in some places. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for the entire region and we are under a SLIGHT RISK of severe weather. The high should be near 80 and humidity will be high. Outside of storms, wind will continue to be very gusty from the south.

Saturday Night/Sunday morning
The cold front moves through very slowly, bringing drenching rains and the threat of more thunderstorms, though the severe risk is slightly lower. Some high wind gusts are still possible. Torrential rainfall appears to be the biggest threat with a few more inches of rain likely, especially after midnight Saturday night through the morning hours Sunday. Once again, temps in the 70s are expected Saturday evening, dropping into the upper 60s to near 70 by Sunday morning. A Flash Flood Watch and SLIGHT RISK of severe weather continue.

Rest of Sunday
A Flash Flood Watch continues though heavy rain should begin slowing up Sunday afternoon with scattered showers continuing into the evening. The heavy rain threat shifts south and east to north Mississippi and eastern portions of west Tennessee. By Sunday evening, much of the area could see rainfall totals for the weekend of 4-8' with isolated higher amounts. Sunday will see high temperatures in the 70s and much less wind behind the cold front. Music Fest-goers should see improving weather by evening, however the damage will likely already be done as another year of Memphis in Mud wraps up!

A couple of new MWN products that may prove useful this weekend:

  • The best web-based weather radar in the Mid-South just got smaller! MWN Stormview Radar is now on the MWN Mobile site. Find it at

  • The all-new MWN Storm Center is also now live, bringing you all the severe weather information you need in a one-stop shopping format. Click the link above to check it out!

  • Sign up for severe weather alerts by e-mail, or get them on Twitter! More information can be found on the Weather Alerts Notification System page.
And here's my fun link of the day:

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