Thursday, December 3, 2009

November climate data and forecast accuracy

The weather took a sharp right turn in November, as compared to the previous couple of months, especially in the precipitation category. While September and October were excessively wet, this month nearly set a record for the driest November on record until a storm system on the 29th-30th erased that possibility. It still ended up being the 12th driest November in Memphis' recorded history. Temperatures also averaged above normal, which is good for November heating bills! Following are climate summaries for Memphis and Bartlett, TN.

Memphis International Airport, Memphis, TN
At Memphis Int'l Airport, the average temperature was 55.1 degrees, which was 2.8 degrees above normal. The highest temperature for the month was 77 degrees on the 8th and the lowest was 29 on the 27th. This was also the only day the temperature dropped below freezing for the month and no temperature records were set in November. The airport recorded only 1.37" of rain for the month, which was 4.39" below normal. Up until the 29th, the monthly total stood at only 0.35", which would have been the driest November on record. There were only 6 days with measurable rainfall and only one day with over 0.50" of rain recorded. The peak wind gust was 40 mph, recorded on the 2nd. Click here for the NWS climate recap for November.

Bartlett, TN
WXLIVE! also recorded a very dry month with above normal temperatures. The average temperature for November was 53.2 degrees, with a maximum of 77.6 on the 10th and a minimum of 26.6 degrees on the 27th, one of 3 days for the month that dropped below freezing. November precipitation totaled 1.39" at the automated WXLIVE! gauge, while a co-located manual gauge used for the CoCoRaHS program measured 1.35". The peak wind gust was 20 mph on the 3rd. Click here for the MWN recap.

MWN Forecast Accuracy
The MWN Forecast continues to best the available computer models and the National Weather Service. In November, the average temperature error in all MWN forecasts was 2.18 degrees, or 0.30 of a degree better than the NWS and the most accurate computer model. More detailed accuracy statistics can be found here.

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