Saturday, October 3, 2009

September climate stats and forecast accuracy

After a cool August, September ended up being slightly warmer than average, though precipitation was well above normal. Following are climate summaries for Memphis and Bartlett, TN.

Memphis International Airport, Memphis, TN
At the airport, the average temperature was 75.7 degrees, which was 0.9 degrees above normal. The highest temperature for the month was 93 degrees set on the 8th and the lowest was 53 on the 30th. A total of 4 September days saw highs at or above 90 degrees. No temperature records were set in September.

Though September is typically a dry month, this was not the case for September 2009. The airport recorded 8.59" of rain for the month, which was over 5" above normal. There were 16 days with measurable rainfall (9 above normal), 3 days with over 1" of rain recorded, and one day with more than 2" of rain (2.14" on the 18th). The peak wind gust was 37 mph, recorded on the 5th. Click here for the NWS climate recap for September.

Bartlett, TN
WXLIVE! also recorded a wet month with near normal temperatures. The average temperature for September was 73.4 degrees, with a max of 92.1 on the 8th (the only day above 90 for the month) and a min of 46.5 degrees on the 29th, one of 6 days for the month that dropped below 60 and one of two days below 50 to close the month. Not as much rain was recorded in Bartlett as at the airport, totaling 5.00" for the month at the automated WXLIVE! gauge, while a co-located manual gauge used for the CoCoRaHS program measured 6.16". The peak wind gust was 24 mph on the 6th. Click here for the MWN recap.

MWN Forecast Accuracy
The MWN Forecast once again produced a lower average temperature error than any of the computer models or the National Weather Service by more than 0.30 of a degree at 2.06 degrees for all forecasts. In addition, the number of forecasts produced for the month (50) was the highest in a decade, since September 1999. So, not only was the quantity of forecasts well above average, but the quality continues as well. Accuracy statistics can be found here.

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